Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Coffee with MarkZ. 12/19/2023
IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit with Iraq, 19 DEC
IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit with Iraq
December 19, 2023
- Economic activity is recovering, although oil production cuts are weighing on overall growth, and at the same time inflation has declined.
- The large fiscal expansion in the three-year budget law poses significant risks to fiscal and external sustainability over the medium term.
- Fiscal prudence and structural reforms are critical to safeguard macroeconomic stability, ensure sustainability, and achieve durable and more inclusive growth.
Washington, DC: A staff team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Jean-Guillaume Poulain met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman, Jordan during Dec 12-17 to discuss recent economic developments and outlook as well as policy plans.
At the end of the mission, Mr. Poulain issued the following statement:
“Against the background of a large fiscal expansion, non-oil GDP is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2023. Continued budget execution should help sustain strong non-oil growth in 2024. However, lower oil production, following the closure of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and OPEC+ production cuts, will reduce overall GDP growth in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has declined from its January peak and is projected to stabilize in the coming months—helped by the Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) tighter monetary policy, passthrough from the exchange rate revaluation, lower international food prices, and normalization of trade finance as compliance to the new anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) [GM1] framework improved.
“The three-year budget approved in June 2023 marked a shift in Iraq’s budgeting practice, envisaged to improve fiscal planning and continue important development projects over the medium term. Despite a late start of budget implementation, the fiscal balance is expected to shift from a large surplus in 2022 to a deficit in 2023. Staff projects that the deficit would widen further in 2024 reflecting the full year impact of recent measures. The large fiscal expansion, including a substantial increase in public hiring and pensions creates permanent spending that will put pressure on public finances over the medium term.
“Ensuring fiscal sustainability, in context of uncertain outlook for oil prices, requires gradually tightening the fiscal policy stance while safeguarding critical infrastructure and social spending needs. This would require mobilizing additional non-oil revenues, containing the large government wage bill, and reforming the pension system. These measures should be supported by moving toward a more targeted social safety net that better protects the vulnerable.
“The mission welcomed the government’s plans to strengthen public financial management including steps towards the establishment of the Treasury Single Account. In this context, the mission reiterated the importance of adhering to the framework for managing government guarantees.
“The CBI has appropriately tightened its monetary policy, including by increasing its policy rate and reserve requirement. The mission welcomed the progress in strengthening the domestic liquidity management framework and encouraged continued efforts to mop up excess liquidity and develop an interbank market to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
“Structural reforms to spur private sector led economic diversification and job creation remains pivotal for sustainable and inclusive growth. Priorities include creating a level playing field for the private sector through banking and electricity sector reforms, reducing distortions in the labor market, and continuing efforts to enhance governance and reduce corruption.
“The IMF staff team stands ready to support the authorities in their reform efforts and would like to thank them for candid and productive discussions during this mission.”
[GM1] Please spell out
IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: MAYADA GHAZALA
PHONE: +1 202 623-7100EMAIL: MEDIA@IMF.ORG
Iraqi Minister of Finance: Economic recovery is underway amid the return of commercial financing to normal, 19 DEC
Iraqi Minister of Finance: Economic recovery is underway amid the return of commercial financing to normal
"LET'S KEEP OUR CHRISTMAS DREAM ALIVE" BY MNT GOAT 19 DEC
MNT GOAT
The saga about the Iraqi dinar RV has only gets gotten better as the months roll on. There are rumors and bank stories galor floating aroud the dinar community. These so-called intel gurus told their listener it had to RV by the end of September, then September turned to October and October to November. Now they tell their listeners we have to wait for the budget and then the next day it changes to waiting for the elections to conclude. All of these rumors are just from idiots trying to get you on their calls or sites to make money from their sponsors. So, if you are a Mnt Goat fan you are much, much more informed and ahead in your knowledge of what is taking place. Please don’t doubt yourself and believe all this other nonsense.
So, how long will us investors in the IQD have to wait before Iraq is allowed to liberate its own currency? Why do I say “now is the time”?
- We know they are completely out of Chapter VII sanctions since December 2022, and so why not treat them as such?
- We know they want the Iraq funds (nearly USD 115+ billion) released from the NY banks and put in their custody to do what they want with it. They are tired of being bullied by the U.S. with their own money.
- We know they have plans for yet more Sovereign Funds to invest their reserves.
- We know they are making agreements now for “currency swaps” for trade with Iran, China, Turkey, Kuwait, Emirates, and many EU countries as Iraq will no longer be using any US dollars in Iraq as of January 1st 2024.
- We know that the IMF is now working on the final stages of pulling together agreements to build a new basket of six (6) currencies to re-peg the IQD.
- We know since January they have undertaken a massive “de-dollarization” program and told it should have taken 6 years but they decided to do it in 1 year (2023). Why such a hurry?
- We know the value of the IQD right now does exceed even pre-1991 era but still at 1/6 of a penny?
- We know Iraq now pumps 2/3 more oil than in pre-1991 era.
- Iraq also has announced 132+ tons of GOLD reserves.
- We know they are pushing this year alone, more than any other year since 2005, for the passing of Oil and Gas law. Why?
- We know for a FACT that it is the U.S. through the Treasury Dept. direction that will NOT give sign-off to allow the reinstatement. Why?
- Finally, the CBI has told us many times already that January is the most opportune time to reinstate for accounting purposes, since it begins their new FISCAL year.
Just be patient, the reinstatement is coming and I firmly believe from what we now know there is a very strong likelihood we NOT are going to be at the banks in early 2024 but there is still strong hope for the early part of the new year. There are no guarantees and so no one really knows a date when the event will occur. Let’s just follow the FACTS and see where they lead us…okay? Iraq is full of surprises and so anything is possible.
Let’s keep our Christmas dream alive!
"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 19 DEC
The rumors are through the roof. From Iraq especially…that they have expectations for the next 48 hours and before the 20th. I do not know if it will happen on the 20th…but I do feel it will happen within the next few weeks. Banking contacts are all looking at the next 36/48 hours… We really are close...let's see what happens. But everyone stay grounded. You all know it’s inevitable. It’s a “when” and not an “if”...
A caller asked Markz where he will be “Wednesday when the notifications come out.” MarkZ replied: “Put it this way… because I think there is a great chance of that, I made certain to book a flight with Internet just so I can go Live no matter where, may be choppy but will be there. …..
“We are close since Iraq is supposed to start spending the last 80% of their budget on Wed. 20 Dec. and the chatter is very loud right now about fines, interest and penalties and adjudicated settlements getting ready to be paid out possibly on Tues. 19 Dec. I’m getting updates from government sources across the World, plus my bank sources, who all agree that everything has been released and the amount of currency rates have been agreed to and has been shared with various countries. I hear more and more contacts from different nations say that they now have the “GO”. We don’t know the timing. They appear to have been releasing the countries one by one. The IQD is on Forex as a tradable currency.”
President Barzani calls for Kurdistan to be a model of coexistence, 19 DEC
President Barzani calls for Kurdistan to be a model of coexistence
Shafaq News/ The President of Iraq's Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani, on Sunday called for the region to become a beacon of coexistence and a model of tolerance to be emulated by the people of the Middle East and the world.
Barzani made those remarks in a speech he delivered during a ceremony held at the Kurdistan Regional Government headquarters to celebrate the Kurdistan Flag Day.
The President congratulated all Kurds, Kurdistan, and the Peshmerga forces on the occasion, which he described as "blessed".
"The Kurdistan flag is a colorful painting drawn with the blood of martyrs, the will of the fighters, and the coexistence of all those who consider Kurdistan their home," Barzani said.
He went on to discuss the colors of the flag, saying, "let the colors of our flag awaken the noble desires and values in our souls. The white color symbolizes justice, peace, and coexistence, the green color symbolizes life and its continuation and the struggle, the red color symbolizes steadfastness, struggle, the sanctity of the blood of martyrs, and the path to the freedom of Kurdistan, and the yellow sun that is in the center of our flag is the ray from which we derive the realization of our hopes and aspirations to achieve the right of self-determination.”
He noted that "this flag, even though it symbolizes the one homeland, it also binds the hearts of the children of this country, one by one, wherever they are, to the Kurds and all other components."
"Let raising the flag today renew the covenant in ourselves to overcome divisions, to respect our differences, and to build together a nation that will be the hope of all who live in Kurdistan."
"I hope that Kurdistan will become a home of coexistence and a model of tolerance between the peoples of the region and the world," he continued.
"Our flag is a symbol of our common aspirations, a symbol of facing challenges and overcoming obstacles, and it is a symbol of our commitment to a brighter future for all of us."
In October 1918, near the end of World War I, Mahmud Barzanji broke away from the Ottoman Empire and established the Kurdish state. As it was initially subordinate to Britain, the polity flew the British Union Jack until it revolted in May 1919.
In May 1919, the Kurdish State revolted against the British Empire, and adopted a crescent flag. The British Empire conquered the Kurdish state in June 1919.
A national Kurdish flag, with a coat of arms instead of a sunburst, was adopted in 1946 by the short-lived Kurdish Republic of Mahabad. In 1992, the Iraqi Kurdistan region adopted the 21-ray sunburst design of Dr. Mehrdad Izady and Dr. Bijhan Eliasi. To this day, the sunburst design remains the National Flag of Kurdistan.
While the National Flag of Kurdistan is recognized throughout all Kurdish regions, several other national flags are flown by various Kurdish political groups across Kurdistan.
The format of the modern Kurdish flag, which was designed by Dr. Mehrdad Izady, and comprises of a tricolor background, and a centrally placed sun disk. The colors of the flag, from top to bottom, are red, white and green. The yellow sun disk at the center has 21 rays, equal in size and shape. Both the sun emblem and the number 21 hold religious and cultural importance in the native Kurdish Yazdani religious traditions.
https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/President-Barzani-calls-for-Kurdistan-to-be-a-model-of-coexistence
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