Global Oil Market in Flux: OPEC+ Cuts, Geopolitical Tensions, and Economic Uncertainty
One of the most intriguing and consequential economic arenas in the world, the global oil market, is currently grappling with a complex medley of variables. From geopolitical tensions and economic conditions to OPEC+ decisions, the landscape of the oil industry is in a state of flux, leading to an unstable pricing environment.
Uncertain Impact of OPEC+ Production Cuts
A significant determinant of the current oil pricing scenario is the recent OPEC+ decision to implement production cuts to counter falling prices. The agreement, aiming to withdraw about 2.2 million barrels per day from the global circulation in the first quarter of the subsequent year, is a strategic response to the downward pricing trend. However, the market has received this decision with a certain level of skepticism, wary of the voluntary nature of the reductions, compliance concerns, and macroeconomic headwinds. The true effect of these production cuts on oil prices is still under scrutiny, the outcome of which might take weeks or months to manifest .
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Conditions
Other than the OPEC+ accord, geopolitical tensions, notably the renewed conflict in Gaza, has added to the market’s volatility, risking potential global oil supply disruptions. The imposition of additional sanctions related to the price cap on Russian oil by the United States has further complicated the market dynamics. Economic conditions, such as weak global manufacturing activity and concerns around economic growth, particularly in 2024, have also impacted oil prices. The central banks’ cautious approach, for instance, the Federal Reserve’s careful consideration of interest rate adjustments, mirrors the wider economic environment that’s influencing the oil market.
Oil Trade Dynamics
The dynamics of oil imports by major consumers, such as India, have also contributed significantly to the global oil market landscape. The changing patterns of oil trade with key suppliers like Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia highlight the intricate web of relationships and market forces in action.
Looking ahead, the current landscape of the oil market is riddled with uncertainty, characterized by the interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic conditions, OPEC+ decisions, and global oil trade dynamics. The long-term balance in the oil market may depend on a significant improvement in global economic data in the new year, highlighting the interconnected nature of the oil market with the broader global economy.
The global oil market today is defined by a multitude of factors, leading to pricing instability. The OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tensions, economic conditions, and oil trade dynamics have collectively shaped this complex and uncertain environment. As the market continues to assess these developments, the path forward remains full of challenges, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive understanding of the global oil market’s multifaceted forces.
Iraq’s Integrity Commission Unveils Financial Irregularities in Basra’s Oil Industry
The Integrity Commission of Iraq has carried out five operations to apprehend instances of financial manipulation, wastage of public funds, and irregularities in various oil companies in Basra. The revelation of these discrepancies reflects the ongoing efforts of the Commission to expose and address corruption within the nation’s oil industry.
Discrepancies Unveiled in Basra Investigation
The Basra Investigation Directorate’s team has unearthed an alarming four billion Iraqi dinar manipulation in 20 disbursement documents. These documents, linked to the Iraqi Oil Tankers Company, were supposed to allocate social benefits for public service projects across the province. Instead, they have become the subject of scrutiny for fraudulent activity.
Financial Missteps at the Basra Oil Company
Furthermore, the Basra Oil Company’s Projects Authority has been implicated in financial negligence. The Authority failed to secure due amounts from an Australian company, causing substantial damage to public funds when the company declared bankruptcy. This misstep has raised questions about the Authority’s financial management capabilities.
Compensatory Payment Issues and Residential Unit Distribution
Issues have also arisen regarding compensatory payments for land use in West Qurna 1 oil field, operated by Basra Oil Company. Non-agricultural lands, as well as fictitious lands, were compensated, shedding light on possible foul play. The South Refinery Company has also been implicated in a violation related to the distribution of residential units. Units were awarded to the general manager and other employees without proper entitlement, with the manager housing his son in a unit despite no affiliation with the company.
Contract Irregularities at the General Company for Distribution of Petroleum Products
Finally, at the General Company for the Distribution of Petroleum Products, contract inconsistencies have been identified with a private transport company. Despite government vehicles being available for transport, the company engaged in this year’s transportation of oil products under ‘license rounds’ with a private firm. This irregularity further underscores the extent of the financial irregularities plaguing Iraq’s oil sector.
Welcome, everybody has a big call tonight is Thursday, November 30. And I'm glad everyone is tuned in and still here and listening to the big call tonight. We welcome everybody that's within the sound of my voice. Thank you for tuning in yet again
Let’s do this you guys - let's talk about where we are - at least where we believe we are right now?
I told you guys, I believe it was last Tuesday - two days ago - that we were supposed to according to pretty high up sources. We were supposed to be exchanging Wednesday or Thursday and I had clarifications that we would be exchanging today. Well, guess what, we are not – yet – exchanging
I don't have the toll free number to put out and I should have it - but I think there’s a number of factors and this is one in particular of them I think that's delayed us slightly. Not too much, but so a little bit.
Now, three days ago, Elon Musk put up rockets that contain 59 new satellites - And those satellites have been put into orbit as part of the Starlink satellite system - My understanding is those 59 satellites complete the formation of Starling satellites system. Further to that my understanding was that the day they will be fully synchronized, starting at about noon today. That's typically give our Eastern Time, noon today, and then be fully synchronized and tested and aligned and by around four o'clock this afternoon.
Well, I don't have confirmation that they completed that yet. I hope to have it by the call tonight. I think that they will have had that completed by now because we had another piece of information this afternoon that said this was from PNC Bank that says that this could go -- one time expression is “this could go”
My question is What are you talking about? What could go? Are you talking about notifications? Are you talking about exchanges are you talking about emails to the bondholders? What are you talking about? You say this could go well, this could go any second after 8:30pm Eastern tonight (Thursday)?
Well way past last hour, two hours past that now. So it doesn't mean it was going to happen at 8:31PM. That's not what it meant. It just meant that it looked like everything is now ready where we thought we have this this morning. We thought we'd be notified we were told that we would be notified between nine and noon today. Didn't happen.
But tomorrow is the first we knew and were told later today that exchanges will start on the first of December that Friday. That's tomorrow. Let's see if that happens - to get exchanges to start - and by the way that was any time after 830 to 930 tomorrow morning - if that is to happen in the morning we need to be notified before this so that we can set our appointments.
Could we wake up to emails tomorrow. Yes, I think that ‘s a distinct possibility. Could these be going out overnight? Yes. - Are the emails to the bondholders going out overnight? Yes.
When will they have access to funds, my understanding is they'll have it sometime tomorrow.
Our shot gun start are supposed to be I believe I said 16 hours its really 14 hours apart, possibly that much, that many hours apart from one another grouping bondholders for tier three before tier 4A which is admirals group and 4B, which is Internet Group - That's who we are.
So this thing is closely connected or Sue would say is they are integrated - so the question is when are we in for a start? In the first day of December? Which is Friday – which is tomorrow?
This is what I've been told yes. But in order to get that start, we need our 800 number & notifications by email – Now will we wake up tomorrow when we get into our morning. We get in time to set appointments and start tomorrow. This is our hope. This is our hope.
I don't have quite as much verification or information from other sources that hoped to have by tonight. Tonight was one of those days where a lot of our sources are quiet. We just don't have everything
Lets talk about rates - that we like to talk about for a minute which I don't as you know talk about very much. We had rates on redemption center screens on dinar and Dong that were put out yesterday - definitely that were terrific. Excellent.
So I'm going to save the rates are terrific. Notice I said on redemption center screens not banks important that we use the toll free number which will come out to set your appointment- I don't care if all you have is Dong – or Dinar - or Zim - whatever your Range of currency might be – use the toll free numbers to set your appointments –
Why is that? Bruce why? Because rates at the redemption center will be higher than they are in the banks - Our contacts see rates on the bank screens - They also see rates in the redemption center screens – I can tell you know they are that much higher – as much as 4 times higher on redemption center screens than they are on the bank screens.
Now. Why is that? Because President Trump wants us to use the toll free numbers to use the redemption centers to get the highest rate is a win win win. I've told you guys before it's a win win for us because you guys have more funds as a result of the exchanges and the redemption of Zim – it is a win for the bank because they get a slight percentage that helps them with their liquidity.
And then a win for the staff person that helps you do your exchange – because the staff people, they go through this exchange with us, picks up point .025% of the total exchange. .025 is 25000s of a percent - 25,000 is nothing - Oh yes. Oh, yes it is So it's very important. And this is why it's important that you don't really just go to any XYZ bank.
Only the redemption centers will work better headed up by Wells Fargo in the United States about in the US will redeem your zim at the top rate - Now certain other tier one banks like Santander Bank in Latin America, they're capable of handling zim --- HSBC is capable of doing zim in Canada and other parts of the world. They ‘re kinda the lead banks everywhere but the United States, Wells Fargo was the lead bank - And over sees the redemption centers in United States - HSBC over sees the same thing as the redemption centers in Canada.
Although there are other banks involved at the redemption centers, like Scotiabank that merged with RBC Royal Bank of Canada. Scotia is okay but we still want to call and go to the redemption centers even in Canada let's see how you do in Mexico with that as well.
Your rates are high there, it's definitely going to be the way to go. We'll set an appointment. It's supposed to take no longer than 30 minutes to get a lot of things done.
But they've been Redemption Centers have been bringing new people - getting new equipment - laptops that are new, that are brand new, that aren't seven years old and old software. The Delarue machine that got new Delarue is coming in now there's quite a shift of all that - a USN currency has been moved from certain banks to redemption centers - should have the USN the US enter the United States Redemption Centers - It's been there for two years or more - we should be able to get that when we go in for our exchanges, when we go in - it should be that the rest of the banks also have the USN currency in the banks.
I'm thinking they should have it as of tomorrow – wait and see what that happens - I cannot go into a regular bank right now – I’m not gonna go anywhere except redemption center. So I won't even know that probably.
But Iraq is looking to put their HCL law in the Gazette along with their new international rates.
And since tomorrow is a High Holy Day - I don't know this, but I think they would probably put it in the virtual online version, if you will, the digital Gazette on Friday, and it made me put it in the printed version of the Gazette on Saturday.
Everything really is ready to go. I really do believe that we are ready. The intention is and was for us to start on first of December. Let's see if that holds up. Maybe we will wake up to our emails that are in inbox tomorrow morning.
Check your emails tomorrow morning. See if they're there and proceed accordingly. And that's what I'd say is important for us right now.
So I just want to thank everybody for listening for tuning in tonight for being part of the big call and for staying with us in faith for everything we are looking to manifest - And I'm sure tomorrow hopefully we wake up, essentially, it's Christmas for us. So let's see what happens. I'm not trying to call it, you know, I did everything but call it Tuesday night, but I think that we're very, very close. Okay, everybody have a great night tonight let's pray out the call.
ADVISER TO THE PRIME MINISTER: ECONOMIC POLICY IN IRAQ IS MOVING TOWARDS IMPLEMENTING THE PRINCIPLE OF MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY
(Oh gee whiz… it seems Mnt Goat was correct again….lol..lol.. read it and weep all you gurus making fun of my blog.. ☹)
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed today, Tuesday, that the economic policy in Iraq is moving towards implementing the principle of monetary sovereignty (RV written all over this article), and while he pointed out that the informal exchange market represents only 10% of circulation, he stressed that the currency cannot be controlled.
A country other than the dinar with in-country pricing(or program rate); Because monetary duality has harmed the economy, (due to an inadequate rate of the dinar assigned) he pointed out at the same time that there is a tendency to diversify currencies for travel purposes and not be limited to the dollar.
Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “Economic policy in general and monetary policy in particular are moving towards a new principle called (monetary sovereignty), which considers the Iraqi dinar the only refuge for exchange, pricing, and coverage of internal transactions.”
He added, “It is not permissible for the currency of another country whose monetary policy is subject to pricing and trade exchange operations within the Iraqi economy, and the principle of monetary sovereignty starts from this level.” (Yes, it starts by fairly pegging your currency and assigning a rate to reflect the true value of it.)
He continued, “The problem in Iraq is the existence of two exchange markets: the first is the regular one in which exchange takes place through the central bank’s platforms, which prices the exchange rate at 1,320 dinars to the dollar as a stable and official price and defends monetary policy.” He explained, “The second market is irregular, representing 10% of the trading rate. It is an uncontrolled market controlled by speculators and adds noise to the Iraqi economy as a whole.”
He pointed out, “There are two things: The first is commodity diversification, which the government has begun through baskets supporting livelihoods, including the food basket, which has achieved stability in the prices of materials, as well as the medicine basket, a construction basket, and another basket for reserve materials that the Ministry of Commerce will launch soon. These are funded at the official exchange rate and help… Stabilize prices and counteract the noise introduced by the informal market.”
He stressed that “dealing in the dollar (dollarization) and its pricing of the internal economic movement is what is most harmful to the economy, but there is no harm in covering external transactions exclusively and through official platforms.”
Saleh pointed out, “On this basis, government policy and the policy of the Central Bank moved towards not relying on one country’s currency in foreign transactions and diversifying those currencies such as the Emirati dirham, the Turkish lira, the Chinese yuan, the British pound, and the euro, in addition to the dollar. This diversification reduces the dollarization of the economy and gives it great independence.”
He stressed, “This diversification can be generalized at the level of selling foreign cash currencies for travel purposes and according to the currency of the country to which one is traveling. This will greatly reduce the demand for the dollar as a single currency in transactions, and the monetary and commodity diversification adds independence to the Iraqi economy.”
Regarding Iraq’s steps to provide these currencies, Saleh said, “The monetary authority in Iraq is independent and there is a wide consultation circle between it and the government. This is happening for the first time to open banking arrangements with central banks in countries that have a commercial partnership with Iraq, such as the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China, and it is possible to cooperate with these countries.” Directly in their national currencies to achieve ease of conversion and exchange to finance trade and the movement of goods, supported by a stable exchange rate of 1,320 dinars, which allows for achieving stability and monetary sovereignty.”
He pointed out, “The demand for foreign currency is linked to the demand for goods and external transactions. It is dangerous to use the dollar to cover internal transactions, and monetary double-dealing has harmed Iraq. This must end, and it does not mean not providing foreign currency to citizens for the purposes of financing foreign trade or for the purposes of travel and tourism. Therefore, there are steps.” This is a major regulatory change aimed at achieving diversification through agreement with several countries with which transactions are conducted.”
He stressed, “The state has large commercial arms, and whenever it finds that there are needs affected by secondary market noise, the commercial apparatus intervenes to expand its dealings, supported by a stable exchange rate, as well as in cooperation with Iraqi merchants.”
Regarding the government’s steps to strengthen the banking system, the Prime Minister’s advisor said, “There is a large team headed by the Prime Minister that directly supervises the reform of the banking system, and the largest system is the government system, whose assets dominate 85% of the assets of the banking system in Iraq, so the reform begins with government banks.” We are working on this seriously, and during the next 6 months the results of this reform will appear, and there will also be work in parallel to reform the private banking system, and there is a strong movement and cooperation in this direction with the associations of private and Islamic banks.”
He stressed, “The Prime Minister’s philosophy confirms that economic reform cannot be achieved without reforming the banking system, and therefore the priority begins with reforming the financial system.”
Iraq predictions 2024: American forces will remain, the factions will continue to attack, and Sudanese will pay the price
Iraq predictions 2024 - American forces will remain - the factions will continue to attack and Sudanese will pay the price“The Americans will not withdraw from Iraq next year. This will not happen, especially if a promising understanding develops between Washington and Tehran regarding the war on Gaza,” this is a summary of what experts and analysts asked by the 964 Network said about their expectations for next year regarding the issue of foreign presence in Iraq .
They say that the greatest harm caused by the continuation of armed attacks, which are expected to increase after the truce in Gaza, will fall on the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, who will clash more with the coordination framework and face increasing complications in already complex files, most notably the fluctuations of the dollar.
But some experts spoke of a higher frequency of attacks against the military bases occupied by the Americans in Iraq once the truce in Gaza ends, noting that the factions “do not find a way other than marches to expel them from Iraq,” even with the presence of Shiite forces that refuse to continue the attacks to avoid consequences that would harm the government. Coordination framework.
Resistance factions in Iraq stopped their operations against American forces in the country out of respect for the truce between the Israeli occupation forces and the factions in Palestine.
It is expected that attacks against American forces in Iraq will increase to force them to leave, and this will be the goal of the “resistance” during the coming months, starting from the end of the truce.
There is no way for American forces to leave Iraq except by targeting the bases with air strikes and drones during the coming period.
It will be difficult for American forces to leave Iraq next year through diplomatic means, because the American side is determined to stay and is working on creating crises to justify the need for it.
The federal government will face a greater crisis with the Americans and with local political forces, with the resumption of attacks during the coming period, which is expected to continue.
After the recent attacks on military bases, indications have emerged that the Americans will not cling to Iraq any longer, even though they know that a number of Shiite forces oppose the attacks launched against them.
Data indicate that American forces may seek to withdraw from Iraq next year.
The Sudanese government is in an embarrassing position, because the Americans are one of the most important parties that supported his government, and the continuation of attacks against them will place him in a greater confrontation with his allies in the coordination framework, and will complicate him with already complex issues, most notably the fluctuations of the dollar.
Contrary to what many say in the media, expectations indicate that the region is moving towards stability, especially after the negotiation efforts between Washington and Tehran, and the flexible position on the Palestinian crisis. This will reflect on the internal situation in Iraq.
Flood Feasts, a former senior army officer, told the 964 network:
Whoever expects the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is short-sighted and naive. This will never happen, especially since the security agreement between Washington and Baghdad granted the right to have 5 American bases in the country.
The armed factions’ step was unsuccessful in choosing this timing to target the Americans in Iraq, because the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani will pay the price by faltering the relationship with Washington politically and economically.
Adnan Al-Kinani, former brigadier general in the army:
The withdrawal of American forces will be very difficult next year, due to Washington’s strong influence at the political, economic and military levels.
There will be no political consensus, in the government and parliament, to remove the American forces, and some even see their presence as a necessity at this stage.
The American administration does not support the idea of withdrawing from Iraq, because it is a promising country in the field of investment, and its strategic location is crucial in the regional conflict in which Washington is involved.
Whoever wants to remove the American forces has no solution but to do so by force.
Economist: The government is required to shift to a flexible economy by encouraging investment and protecting investors from extortion
Economic expert Saleh Al-Hamashi called on the government to shift to a flexible economy by encouraging investment and protecting investors from government blackmail and others. He said in a statement to the National Iraqi News Agency ( NINA ): “The global economic conditions are fluctuating, global growth is slowing down, the region is suffering from major political and security crises, events are accelerating, and the possibilities are many, and all of these events are casting a shadow on the region’s economies.” Al-Hamashi added: “Iraq already suffers from the problem of the rentier economy, which by its nature is inflexible in the face of economic, political and security fluctuations, as it turns the state into a financial one and leaves it out of the general economy.” He pointed out: "Iraq today has benefited from the rise in global oil prices, but has been affected by the rise in global prices for foodstuffs. All commodities have also risen globally, and the government is unable to address or compensate for the shortage locally because the Iraqi economy has become a hostage of regional and global economies." Al-Hamashi expressed his belief that the impact has become direct on the Iraqi economy in all economic developments, calling on the government to develop a plan to transform into a flexible economy capable of facing all changes by encouraging investment and protecting investors from governmental and non-governmental blackmail, as well as activating the role of banks in moving the wheel of the economy. By providing cash liquidity and easy movement of funds.” link
