Saturday, November 25, 2023
Moody affirms Iraq's Caa1 ratings, 25 NOV
Moody affirms Iraq's Caa1 ratings, 25 NOV
Shafaq News/ Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) last week affirmed Iraq's long-term issuer ratings at Caa1 as it maintains a stable outlook.
The rating affirmation reflects Iraq's economic, fiscal and external dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, resulting in significant exposure to oil price volatility and carbon transition risks, a Moody report said.
"Very weak institutions and governance constrain policy effectiveness, the government's capacity to respond to domestic and external shocks, and the economy's competitiveness," it added.
Deep political fragmentation, Iraq's susceptibility to geopolitical tensions, and growing social pressures from high youth unemployment and inadequate access to basic services also expose Iraq to political event risk.
"The outlook is stable," Moody's report continued, "higher global oil prices have driven a significant turnaround in Iraq's fiscal and external accounts, supporting public debt reduction and a marked recovery in the Central Bank of Iraq's (CBI) foreign exchange reserve position to record highs."
The "expansionary" triennial budget and limited reform momentum are expected to underpin a "steady renewed deterioration" in fiscal metrics and further entrench Iraq's structural vulnerabilities.V
Iraq's local and foreign currency country ceilings remain unchanged.
"The local currency country ceiling at B3, one notch above the sovereign issuer rating, reflects heavy reliance of the economy on a single revenue source, very high political risk and highly unpredictable institutions."
The foreign currency country ceiling at Caa1, one notch below the LC ceiling, incorporates some albeit relatively modest transfer and convertibility risks, which "stem from the track record of weak fiscal policy effectiveness balanced by a relatively low level of external indebtedness and robust foreign currency reserves."
Across Moody's global sovereign universe, Iraq remains one of the hydrocarbon producers most exposed to carbon transition risks in view of the dominance of oil in government revenue and exports as well as limited capacity to adjust, the consequence of institutional, social and political obstacles to reform.
Notwithstanding Iraq's vulnerability to declines in oil demand and prices, credit mitigants are present through the favourable composition of government debt, the significant recovery in the CBI's foreign-exchange reserve position, and a contained amortisation profile for external debt in the next few years. "These factors limit the likelihood of a default on privately held external government debt in the near future, even in the absence of access to the international capital markets."
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Moody-affirms-Iraq-s-Caa1-ratings
US dollar retreats against Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil, 25 NOV
US dollar retreats against Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil
Shafaq News/ The US dollar value edged lower against the Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil on Saturday.
With the close of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges in Baghdad, the exchange rate was 157,500 dinars for every 100 dollars, a drop from the morning rate of 158,650 dinars.
In local markets in Baghdad, exchange shop selling prices also decreased, with the selling price reaching 158,750 Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars, while the purchase price was 156,750 dinars for every 100 dollars.
In Erbil, the dollar recorded a selling price of 157,200 dinars for every 100 dollars, with a purchase price of 157,000 dinars for every 100 dollars.
"RV UPDATE" BY JEFF, 25 NOV
Jeff
The reason why there's no news coming out of Iraq is because Iraq is done with everything. They finished everything needed to revalue. They're ready to revalue but they can't and they're not going revalue immediately because they have to clean up corruption. Article: "Al-Halbousi faces 4 criminal charges after the end of his presidency" Boom!... Halabousi is going to be facing 4 criminal charges.
In order for the 2023 budget to be implemented Iraq needed to have publicly posted in the Gazette the budget operating instructions. They never did that. That step never happened... Iraq has not implemented its '23 budget that's why they have to resort to financing salaries and have done so since July...If they had an active budget they would not need to finance.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/11/rv-update-by-jeff-rayren98-19-nov.html
You're like, why hasn't Iraq revalued? They've gotten everything done?' And they do! Iraq has everything done. They're ready to revalue but they're not going to revalue till they tackle corruption...They have to remove this corruption.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2023/11/rv-update-by-rayren98-kaperoni-jeff-18.html
"RV UPDATE" BY PIMPY, 25 NOV
Pimpy
If you are being forced to rely on the US dollar that strengthens the US dollar. Think supply and demand. If the US keeps going around forcing these countries to have a dual currency and to take the US dollar, people will rather have the US dollars.
They believe those dollars to be stronger but as people start to de-dollarize and get away from using the US dollars and start using their currencies that strengthens their currency and weakens the US dollar..
[Response to Guru Nader below]
What I'm about to talk about proves Iraq has potential to be much much richer than Kuwait and could have much more valuable currency than a Kuwait dinar... [Guru] Nader is stating Iraq is 100, no, 1000 times richer than Kuwait. I've done a side-by-side comprising...
What makes Kuwait such a rich nation, Iraq absolutely has a lot more. But what's keeping Iraq behind is the following - ...Nader is right, when it comes to oil. Iraq has so much more than Kuwait does and Kuwait relies on their export of oil to make their country rich. The difference between Kuwait and Iraq is Kuwait has other things bringing money into their country besides oil.
They have things they can fall back on...GDP per capita...according to World Bank data Kuwait had a GDP per capita of approximately $29,000 in 2019 while Iraq was $5,000...Kuwait does share the wealth with the citizens, Iraq was not doing that. This substantial difference in GDP per capita clearly indicates Kuwait is wealthier on a person basis than Iraq.
Even thought that's true it doesn't mean Iraq can't turn around get their crap together because if they did they would easily smash Kuwait...Once the Iraqi people are becoming prosperous as well you're going see Iraq pass up Kuwait as far as being a rich nation...Kuwait's got their act together. We need Iraq to do the same thing.
Al-Allaq: There Will Be Blockade Operations For Each Category That Will Put Pressure On The Cash Dollar In The Market, 25 NOV
Al-Allaq: There Will Be Blockade Operations For Each Category That Will Put Pressure On The Cash Dollar In The Market
Economy | 11/24/2023 Baghdad - Mawazine News Today, Friday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Ali Al-Alaq, announced the start of importing dollars into the country through the accounts of Iraqi banks abroad, and while he indicated the end of procedures to open accounts in the UAE dirham and the understanding with Turkey to make transfers in euros or the Turkish currency, he revealed a broad plan to reform and develop private and government banks. .
Meeting with the US Treasury and the Federal Bank. Al- Alaq said in an interview with the official agency, followed by Mawazine News, that “the Central Bank of Iraq is in constant communication with the US Treasury and with the US Federal Bank,” indicating that “this communication continues permanently, and there are quarterly meetings held.” To review all matters related to this relationship.”
He added, "There is a meeting that will be held at the beginning of next month as part of the periodic quarterly meetings held between the Central Bank, the Federal Bank, and the Ministry of Treasury, where in these meetings we review all matters with emphasis and focus on the issue of regulating external transfer in a way that ensures the safety of the financial system, especially after the implementation of the new transfer system." external environment, which requires a lot of coordination.
He stated that "these developments that have taken place are radical and not formal developments within the framework of reorganizing trade on sound foundations and organizing external transfer on sound foundations," explaining that "the details related to this issue require coordination and joint cooperation between the Central Bank and those parties."
He stressed that "the next meeting will be in the Emirati city of Dubai," pointing out that "there are quarterly meetings in addition to emergency organizational meetings or communications via phone or video."
He agreed to strengthen banks with dollars and stated that “the Federal Bank agrees with the Central Bank on the need for them to exit the process of conducting the executive aspects of external transfer and their role is limited to supervision and control, and this is normal in central banks that do not exercise these executive roles or detailed operations with regard to transfer.”
Therefore, the plan and agreement between us was for the Central Bank of Iraq and the Federal Bank to exit these procedural processes, confirming the development of a plan to shift the external transfer process from the electronic platform that will be completed at the beginning of next year.
He pointed to creating a new relationship between Iraqi banks and internationally accredited correspondent banks abroad, where the process would be limited between them, and the role of the Central Bank of Iraq and the US Federal Reserve would be the process of monitoring and supervision, and we began some time ago trying to find a relationship between correspondent banks and our Iraqi banks.
“Opening more than 40 He opened a bank account and stated: “We have greatly succeeded in this context, and we were able to open more than 40 accounts for Iraqi banks with correspondent banks or abroad,”
Diversifying Currencies
and stating that “to increase flexibility and facilitation in the external transfer process, we have diversified the currencies in which transfers are made to Abroad, and we now have transfers in addition to the dollar, euro and UAE dirham.”
Understandings For Making Transfers Through Turkish Banks
He stressed that "the procedures have been completed for opening accounts in the dirham, the Chinese yuan, and the Indian rupee," noting that "there are preliminary understandings with the Turkish side to make transfers through Turkish banks in the euro or the Turkish currency."
He stated that "this issue is important and is being conducted in coordination with the Federal Bank and the US Treasury, and they are helping us in this," noting that "this is the opposite of what some understand as an escape from the pressures of the Federal Bank regarding the dollar, as these currencies are covered by the dollar and we buy them from the dollars in the bank.
" The Federal Bank, which is not far from the Federal Bank, but rather with the coordination and support of the Federal Bank, as it wants to reach with us the desired goal, which is to have a relationship between Iraqi banks and correspondent banks.”
He stated, "This is happening for the first time by opening this number of accounts for our banks, and it is a very important step to strengthen the banking system in Iraq, because accepting these banks means that they now have systems capable of being accepted internationally," explaining that "any correspondent bank currently accepts... By opening an account with an Iraqi bank after ensuring that this bank has the necessary systems, standards, conditions and rules under which it operates.”
End Of Work On The Electronic Platform.
Al-Alaq confirmed that “this will lead to the end of work on the electronic platform in the year 2024,” explaining: “We have reached an advanced level and with the completion of the other episodes, we will leave this method.”
He stated, "In this case, operations will be faster, easier, and more disciplined, because these internationally accredited correspondent banks have complete systems for conducting audit and monitoring operations before implementing this operation."
Treating Rejected Transfers Gradually.
Al-Alaq pointed out that “this will gradually reduce the percentage of rejected transfers,” pointing out that “rejecting transfers has reasons, but the banks and transferring people will learn the conditions and points that must be taken into account when submitting a transfer request, as there are formal issues, for example, coding.
” The numbering, and there are required documents and review for the final beneficiary, is that there are well-known companies, and the prices are reasonable, etc., and over time, the importer or the applicant gets used to adapting or providing the requirements for the transfer.”
The fact that the American side is reducing the amount of dollars, and he stated that “the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are responding to all requests related to the process of providing and strengthening the dollar that Iraq needs by following sound rules and standards for the movement of money,” explaining that “this is in the interest of the two countries and ridding the financial system of any suspicious operations such as laundering operations.
Understandings For Making Transfers Through Turkish Banks
He stressed that "the procedures have been completed for opening accounts in the dirham, the Chinese yuan, and the Indian rupee," noting that "there are preliminary understandings with the Turkish side to make transfers through Turkish banks in the euro or the Turkish currency."
He stated that "this issue is important and is being conducted in coordination with the Federal Bank and the US Treasury, and they are helping us in this," noting that "this is the opposite of what some understand as an escape from the pressures of the Federal Bank regarding the dollar, as these currencies are covered by the dollar and we buy them from the dollars in the bank.
" The Federal Bank, which is not far from the Federal Bank, but rather with the coordination and support of the Federal Bank, as it wants to reach with us the desired goal, which is to have a relationship between Iraqi banks and correspondent banks.”
He stated, "This is happening for the first time by opening this number of accounts for our banks, and it is a very important step to strengthen the banking system in Iraq, because accepting these banks means that they now have systems capable of being accepted internationally," explaining that "any correspondent bank currently accepts... By opening an account with an Iraqi bank after ensuring that this bank has the necessary systems, standards, conditions and rules under which it operates.”
End Of Work On The Electronic Platform.
Al-Alaq confirmed that “this will lead to the end of work on the electronic platform in the year 2024,” explaining: “We have reached an advanced level and with the completion of the other episodes, we will leave this method.”
He stated, "In this case, operations will be faster, easier, and more disciplined, because these internationally accredited correspondent banks have complete systems for conducting audit and monitoring operations before implementing this operation."
Treating Rejected Transfers Gradually.
Al-Alaq pointed out that “this will gradually reduce the percentage of rejected transfers,” pointing out that “rejecting transfers has reasons, but the banks and transferring people will learn the conditions and points that must be taken into account when submitting a transfer request, as there are formal issues, for example, coding.
” The numbering, and there are required documents and review for the final beneficiary, is that there are well-known companies, and the prices are reasonable, etc., and over time, the importer or the applicant gets used to adapting or providing the requirements for the transfer.”
The fact that the American side is reducing the amount of dollars, and he stated that “the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are responding to all requests related to the process of providing and strengthening the dollar that Iraq needs by following sound rules and standards for the movement of money,” explaining that “this is in the interest of the two countries and ridding the financial system of any suspicious operations such as laundering operations.
The government issued a decision not to deal in dollars locally. As for the second class, they are the merchants who import some materials and do not enter the platform or transfer in the proper manner. We began by analyzing these categories, such as the cigarette trade, which takes the dollar from the market at a percentage 100 percent.
As we began to analyze the materials entering Iraq, such as some mobile phones and other materials, a decision was issued stating that these materials must have proof that they entered Iraq based on a fundamental external transfer. If these goods do not carry an official fundamental transfer, this means that they are goods. "I entered illegally."
Following Up On The Market
and stating that “there will be follow-up operations in the market, and even in the warehouses, to ensure that these materials enter based on an official transfer so as to keep them away from pressure on the cash dollar market, and we will expand this to other categories, and any category we find is making non-fundamental transfers.” Or by paying cash, we will besiege it.”
Transfers From Iraqis In Dollars
, and he pointed out that “the general principle is what was approved by the Council of Ministers that trading or payment inside Iraq is in dinars, but there are cases that are being studied at the present time, and there was a meeting in the Ministry of Planning regarding contracts in their various forms and how to make payment options, whether in dinars.” Or in dollars, as a group of proposals were put forward that we are now studying,” noting that “some types of contracts or obligations with foreign companies previously will continue to be dealt in dollars, and we are studying other cases to develop the best or most appropriate method for them.”
He pointed out that "in the past, inward transfers did not matter to the beneficiary if they were given in dinars, but now, because of the price difference, it is a temporary solution and we are working to solve the problem radically."
The mechanism for importing dollars by private banks. Al- Alaq announced the start of supplying dollars into the country from the accounts of Iraqi banks abroad, explaining that “the supply of dollars from abroad comes from what is in the accounts of Iraqi banks abroad. For example, we have an account in a bank, so we can withdraw it in cash or a check, and it is transferred.” In cash, and it has benefits, including that the amounts come into the country instead of abroad.”
He explained that the instructions of the Central Bank will not allow the bank to keep a large amount of foreign currency abroad, as there are certain percentages, in addition to preventing misuse of this currency coming into the country, and we put Rules for its uses.
He warned that "the Central Bank is studying the request of the bank that supplies the dollar and its needs before giving approval and verifying the source of the amount and even the transporting company, in addition to verifying the uses of this amount."
He pointed out that "because of the price difference, there was pressure on banks to withdraw their balances or transfers received from the dollar, which led to some banks becoming scarce in the currency," explaining that "foreign currency can be available in more than one way, not only through the central bank." We seek to deepen this practice.”
He stated: “As long as our Iraqi banks have balances abroad in foreign currencies, it is better for us to enter them, and this supports the reserves in the central bank, that is, instead of the bank using its foreign currency reserves, the currency will be available from the banks’ accounts, and this is an important point.”
A Study To Restructure Banks In Iraq.
Al-Alaq confirmed that “there is a broad reform plan for private banks with mergers and correction operations in some of their situations, and there is a broad plan for government banks, some of whose details will be announced, and we are working with Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani in this regard,” pointing out that “government banks It represents the greatest weight in the banking sector, and we must put it in the best possible way.” https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=238455
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