Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Coffee with MarkZ and Andy Schectman. 11/08/2023
The government issues new instructions regarding the dollar exchange rate mechanism, 8 NOV
The government issues new instructions regarding the dollar exchange rate mechanism
A Deep Dive into India’s Currency Dynamics Amid Global Market Shifts, 8 NOV
A Deep Dive into India’s Currency Dynamics Amid Global Market Shifts
The Indian rupee’s stability despite fluctuating oil prices, the impact of Russian crude oil discounts on Indian refiners, and the forecasted movement of the rupee against the U.S. dollar form the core of the provided information. Additionally, the analysis includes insights on the Indian economy, foreign exchange rates, and the impact of global factors on the Indian market. Let’s delve deeper into these key aspects and their implications.
Indian Rupee and Oil Prices
The Indian rupee’s resilience in the face of fluctuating oil prices is a significant observation. Despite the drop in oil prices and the strengthening of Asian currencies, the rupee remained relatively unaffected. This stability is noteworthy, especially considering India’s heavy dependence on oil imports to meet over 85% of its requirements. The muted impact of falling oil prices on the rupee suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing the currency’s valuation. Continued dollar demand from local corporates and oil companies has been exerting pressure on the rupee, indicating the influence of domestic economic activities on currency dynamics.
Impact of Russian Oil Discounts on Indian Refiners
The analysis highlights the substantial savings—estimated at around 3.3 billion USD—achieved by Indian refiners through the purchase of discounted Russian crude oil. This development underscores the significant role of Russian oil in India’s energy landscape, with Russia emerging as the largest source of oil imports for India. The deep discounts offered by Russia in the wake of geopolitical events have positioned the country as a primary supplier of crude to India, surpassing traditional suppliers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The cost-effectiveness of Russian oil imports, coupled with the scale of India’s crude oil consumption, underscores the strategic implications of this shift in oil trade dynamics.
Forecasted Movement of the Indian Rupee
The forecasted movement of the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar provides valuable insights into the expected trajectory of the currency. Despite India’s robust economic growth projections, the rupee is anticipated to trade near record lows against the dollar in the coming months. This forecast reflects the expectations of FX strategists and the Reserve Bank of India’s potential interventions to support the currency. The nuanced analysis considers factors such as the impact of global central bank policies, oil prices, and geopolitical developments on the rupee’s valuation. The forecasted range of the rupee’s exchange rate against the dollar offers a comprehensive view of the currency’s anticipated performance.
Economic Implications
The interplay between oil prices, currency dynamics, and global geopolitical events holds significant implications for India’s economy. The stability of the rupee against the U.S. dollar, despite external volatilities, reflects the resilience of India’s currency markets. The substantial savings achieved through discounted Russian oil imports are poised to have far-reaching effects on India’s energy security and trade balances. Additionally, the forecasted movement of the rupee underscores the interconnectedness of domestic and global factors shaping India’s currency markets.
Key Takeaways and Future Considerations
The insights gleaned from the analysis provide a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship between oil prices, currency dynamics, and India’s economic landscape. The strategic shift in India’s oil imports, driven by discounted Russian crude oil, underscores the country’s adaptability to global market dynamics. The forecasted movement of the rupee against the U.S. dollar necessitates a comprehensive approach to managing currency risks and ensuring economic stability amid external uncertainties.
In conclusion, the analysis offers a comprehensive view of the Indian rupee’s stability, the impact of discounted Russian oil imports, and the forecasted movement of the currency. The intricate interplay of global energy markets, currency dynamics, and economic projections underscores the complexity of India’s economic landscape. As India navigates the evolving global economic environment, a nuanced understanding of these factors will be essential for informed decision-making and strategic planning.
Goldilocks' Comments and Global Economic News Tuesday Evening, 8 NOV
The Central Bank of Iraq decided to resume the sale of gold bullion and coins, starting Wednesday, November 8, 2023, via an “electronic platform.”
The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed that government and private banks can apply to buy gold bullion and coins via (an electronic platform designated for this purpose), indicating that their sale will be in accordance with the instructions and controls issued by the Central Bank of Iraq.
Central Bank of Iraq Information Office https://cbi.iq/news/view/2463
BREAKING NEWS
CHINA ADDED TO ITS GOLD HOLDINGS FOR THE 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
THE CENTRAL BANK ADDED ABOUT 23 TONS
China has gold fever.
Read: https://x.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1721817507349364886?s=46
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"Inter-Agency Working Group Releases New Report on Treasury Market Resilience Efforts"
Several mechanisms have just recently been changed to support the markets going into 2024 that allow the flow of money to move with more efficiency and profitability.
* Implement a Treasury buyback program
* More transparency on the secondary Market
* More information in the repo Market
* More clarity in reporting requirements
* Expand cross-margining efforts between central counterparties that clear cash and derivative transactions related to Treasury securities
Basically, we are witnessing restrictions made on to the Old Market being released to New Market modalities such as the use of local currencies around the world used as collateral.
More flexibility in BuyBacks giving investors quicker returns on their profit margins.
And more...
The new digital trading economy is allowing these changes to take place to even the playing field for Professional and Retail investors.
© Goldilocks
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8820-23
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Central Bank of Iraq Information Office https://cbi.iq/news/view/2463
Following the launch of BRICSPAY, the BRICS system has been exploring the expansion of the Digital Yuan.
Currently, the movement towards leveling the playing field between the East and the West through the digital Yuan is underway.
Below, you will find a legislative bill link regarding proposed legislative changes to the world's reserved status.
© Goldilocks
https://watcher.guru/news/brics-china-exploring-cross-border-use-of-digital-yuan
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/556
CoinDesk Link
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READOUT: Financial Stability Oversight Council Meeting on November 3, 2023
U.S. Department of the Treasury Link
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BRICS nations see massive surge in global transactions
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/brics-massive-surge-in-global-transactions/
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(Bloomberg) -- "Oil edged up after Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed they will stick with oil supply curbs of more than 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year."
Saudi Arabia and Russia have recommitted themselves to extending oil supply curbs until the end of the year.
This will hold the price of oil to a higher level and not allow it to depreciate in the coming months as consumer spending wanes.
© Goldilocks
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-edges-higher-saudis-russian-234810693.html
BRICS Trade Surges Ahead Of Enlargement: Report Iran Front Page Link
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HOTTEL: World's First Fully Tokenized Asset-Backed Investment Coin Successfully Launched
https://comtex.com/?p=442893944
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House-passed bill includes Boebert measures blocking BLM oil, gas reforms, local leasing plans
BRICS Trade Surges Ahead Of Enlargement: Report Iran Front Page Link
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HOTTEL: World's First Fully Tokenized Asset-Backed Investment Coin Successfully Launched
https://comtex.com/?p=442893944
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House-passed bill includes Boebert measures blocking BLM oil, gas reforms, local leasing plans
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UPDATE from Goldilocks:
The Oil Market is still in economic reforms.
Gold is being added as an economic form of payment on electronic platforms.
We still have electronic currency reforms in development.
And, Banks are adjusting their Capital requirements to synchronize transactions between them and the markets.
We have never seen this much activity at the same time.
We are clearly inside a Global Currency Reset.
We are clearly still in process, but the final phases of these changes are within sight.
© Goldilocks
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BREAKING NEWS
CHINA WILL TIGHTEN RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS, REQUIRING EXPORTERS TO REPORT RARE-EARTH TYPES AND THEIR EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Commodities… Read: https://x.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1721936408691261668?s=46
An American official from Erbil: Passing the oil and gas law is a priority for Washington, 8 NOV
An American official from Erbil: Passing the oil and gas law is a priority for Washington
The new US consul in Erbil, Mark Straw, confirmed on Tuesday that addressing the revenue problem and passing the oil and gas law will be Washington’s priorities and agenda in Kurdistan.
A statement from the Ministry of Natural Resources, the regional government, said, “The Acting Minister of Electricity and Natural Resources, Kamal Muhammad Salih, received today the American Consul General in the Kurdistan Region, Mark Straw.”
The statement added, "The Minister of Electricity and Natural Resources thanked the United States of America for its role in resuming oil exports to the Kurdistan region, following up on solving oil and gas problems, expanding investment, and approving the federal oil and gas law with the Kurdistan region."
In turn, the American Consul confirmed, “We are closely following the process of resuming oil exports and we know that the suspension of oil has had a negative impact on revenues and citizens, and that addressing the revenue problem and passing the oil and gas law will be among the priorities of Washington’s policy and agenda.”
He expressed his "happiness with investing in the electricity, energy and oil sectors." link
CAMY LYNNE: "December 10th, Victory Day" , 26 NOV
💢Cami Lynne, Liberty Lounger Extraordinaire, shares the last page of article from Iraq, detailing the plans for Currency Auction. 💢Ca...
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Frank26 [Bank story] This time we didn't go down, we just called [the bank]... We said we want to see if we can exchange some cu...
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Bank appointment for Currency EXCHANGE Instructions/Checklist Bank Name_________________________________________ Bank 800#____________...
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Walkingstick All these meetings that the CBI had with all these agencies that were helping them with their monetary reform are done. Al...