Saturday, October 28, 2023
Iraq Declares No War Over Oil Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions, 28 OCT
Iraq Declares No War Over Oil Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
In a region where oil is the lifeblood that fuels economies, politics, and even wars, Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made a crucial declaration: it will not plunge into war over oil. This pronouncement comes amid escalating tensions in the region, as the United States and Iran spar with airstrikes and proxy attacks.
Messages in the Skies
Recently, the United States conducted airstrikes on Iranian military munitions stockpiles in Syria. These strikes were not random acts of aggression but a carefully orchestrated operation intended to send a two-pronged message to Iran. Firstly, escalating attacks on American forces by Iranian proxies could lead to overt military confrontation. Secondly, if these attacks cease, both sides could revert to the simmering hostilities that have characterized their relationship in recent years.
However, the United States’ attempts to modify Iran’s behavior have often been fruitless. The 2015 nuclear deal, for instance, failed to foster the desired cooperation. Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its oil sales to China, has bolstered its economy, making an all-out conflict a risky venture.
A Delicate Balance of Power
The U.S. strikes on Iranian military facilities were designed to be potent yet measured, strong enough to demonstrate resolve but not so severe as to escalate the situation or give Iranian hardliners an excuse to push for a wider regional war. The goal of the strikes is to deter and prevent future attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups.
However, the effectiveness of these strikes remains uncertain. The United States believes that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to avoid a wider war, but Iran is still applying pressure on the U.S. to rein in Israel and remind them of Iran’s power.
China’s Role in the Middle East
As the United States and Iran navigate this fraught relationship, another global superpower, China, is positioning itself as a key mediator in the Middle East. China has economic interests on both sides of the conflict and advocates for a peaceful resolution. By maintaining neutrality, it secures support from the Global South and demonstrates that it can collaborate with the West.
The current conflict provides an opportunity for China to demonstrate its willingness to partner with the West and dispel fears that its rise means seeking to replace the West.
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of potential conflict, Iraq’s decision to avoid war over oil is a beacon of hope in a turbulent storm. It remains to be seen whether other nations will follow suit and choose diplomacy over destruction.
https://bnn.network/world/iraq/iraq-declares-no-war-over-oil-amid-u-s-iran-tensions/
BRUCE'S BIG CALL, 28 OCT
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 10-26-23 REPLAY LINK Intel Begins 1:17:37
Welcome everybody to the big call tonight - It is Thursday, October 26th and you're listening to the big call. Thanks for listening wherever you are located all over the globe - And we hope that we're getting this to you in your own language. I didn't get the stats on Tuesday’s call to know what the numbers were yet and usually do but all I know is we've reached a lot of people - and last Thursday’s call 182 countries I believe it was 19 point something million listeners - we’re happy about that. We hope we're getting a big reach tonight – we were kind of kept out of Israel and some of the Middle Eastern countries last Tuesday, obviously with a conflict that's going on in Israel, but let's do this you guys - Let’s get into the Intel side of things, Let's talk first about Iraq. We were looking to see the Iraqi dinar rates published in the physical printed Gazette, the official record of Iraq, they call it the Gazette. And that was to go in yesterday, or so we thought, but it didn't and we're hearing those should go in either Friday or Saturday. I would expect it to be there, except on Saturday. That makes sense Friday of their high holy day. I don't know if it would come out tomorrow it's possible. But if it comes out Saturday that will suffice - The rate itself that we heard today on the screens is excellent. Very good. And I told you guys Tuesday - they were supposed to offer us a contract rate on the dinar, which I can't tell you what it is, but you'll be very pleasantly surprised. Now - The other thing is we do expect this rate to be an international rate and the dinar to be quite high, quite good - Higher than Dr Shabibi suggested 10 years ago, actually 11 years ago now, when he mentioned what the value of the dinar could support in the International Chamber of Commerce meeting in 2012 - and just seems like yesterday, but it was 11 years ago. So that's good news. it'll be higher than what he suggested. and you guys that have been on the call for a while, know the rate that I'm referring to. So that would be an international rate - the Iraqi dinar - The new Iraqi dinar has been traded for almost two weeks now on the forex and also on the ATF FX. So it's not like people that are in that business aren't aware of that they are - And I just think we're gonna be totally amazed by not only that but also the rate of the dong - the rupiah - the Afghani also Bolivar from Venezuela and it's just gonna be --- and the zim itself, it's gonna be a terrific rate. So it should be on par with our dollar highest or whatever. So that's really good news. Also thinking - saying that what we're hearing about the dinar is very positive for us, and we should have that -- See when we say that the rate should be published in the Gazette. I know we've talked about past Saturdays past Wednesdays and Saturdays, and it's held off from being published because they really don't want it out there published like that, until we are ready to go with our exchanges. And I think that's what's interesting about either tomorrow or Saturday. And I think if I were a betting person I'd bet on Saturday. The other information that's lining up for us - have to say this first, you guys realize that the information that I get at the time appears valid appears true, appears to be the real thing. And then look what happened in the last three days. We were expecting 800 numbers to come in on Tuesday morning, yesterday morning and this morning. But since those times we've gotten information that says that that wasn't happening. And we knew it didn't happen because we experienced the fact that it didn't happen. But it just goes to show that we've talked about this being a moving target talked about, you know, things that happened to be time that are not true. There are other variables that play into this. There are other things happening globally, with the political scene with everything else that that certain people in the deep state are trying to do to thwart this - And to keep this from going. In one analogy that was made yesterday today was about the game of Whack a Mole, where those moments come up to hole and you whack them with that mallet. That's sort of what they're playing a game of Whack a Mole with the deep state. But every time every day doesn't happen and the next day comes guess what - there are fewer and fewer each day interfering because they've been picked up arrested and removed from the premises - how long will they go on? It's hard to say -- Is everything clear and ready to go now? It's hard to say. I will say this, politically. Johnson was elected Speaker of the House. And I think we went out about it Tuesday. whenever that was, that was a big win. It looks like to be a great guy - I think that some of the other political shenanigans that are going on could have been what slowed this down. Obviously, we do have a major conflict going on in Israel. And that is a real thing. It started as a prisoner swap and then cleaning out of tunnels, which we believe there are so many tunnels under Israel that were used for child trafficking. But that is something to be cleansed and that's what they're doing, as well as trying to defend against Hamas and possibly Hezbollah. So that is a real thing. The money that Janet Yellen, sent over to the Ukraine, in the tune of $57 billion was returned by President Putin of Russia to our good Treasury here - our new treasury, you realize the old Treasury that we had was using the Fiat and printing money. It was basically operating under the Federal Reserve, which is the good parts of the Fed and rolled into the new US Treasury for the restored Republic. And so those 57 billion were returned to our country, And that's a good thing. The other piece of it, I think that is important. And some of our intel sources are really kind of dried up. It's really getting so close that certain people have said they can no longer speak to our source or our sources and you know, no longer meet with them speak with them, and that's a good thing, because it tells us how close we are – the bad thing is because then we sometimes lose communication with bank sources, or redemption center sources, and where we stand right now - Or the last communication that we had, which was coming in from an email received at the redemption center was that things are being resituated and re allocated for an all new restart -- I think they are working with our timeline or trying to get everything resituated and funds re allocated for a complete new restart. Now, the restart was supposed to be the either Friday that's tomorrow, or Saturday. That's the day after tomorrow. So that's the latest intel that we have pointed to a window of having this done, getting our numbers out, getting our appointments set, going in for exchanges. If everything works out, right, we could be in doing our exchange in my opinion - I think Saturday is looking very positive - Maybe tomorrow, maybe I think what's going to happen is what's happening on the political scene is I think we'll see some political change that we might notice tomorrow with removal of some and reinsertion of another. But let's see how that plays out over the next day or so. The timing I've been told is going towards things happening tomorrow in that regard for the political change to take place. And I look forward to that just like everybody else. I think we can't wait to win. Also our thoughts and prayers go out to the people in Mexico – Who withstood a very strong force four force five hurricane and people in that area of Mexico and the west coast of the Pacific Coast of Mexico. I'm sure are really inundated with the effects of that hurricane And I'm sorry that that happened. And I just really found out about it today. I think it made land fall yesterday - So our thoughts and our prayers are with the people of Mexico, and specifically Acapulco and all the areas surrounding it, that were affected. I think this you guys we know that this is very close. We know that we thought we would have days ago even months ago - And what I'm trying to do is bring you the most accurate, up to date information that I get. That's what I've given you tonight. Now I know dates have come and gone. We have to be careful, don't ascribe too closely to those particular dates that we when it comes to restitution and reclamation allowance - Yes, we did not get that yesterday or the 18th of October. And I got sources looking into seeing whether it's possible that we do still receive it this month. It's possible but I just don't have that don't have that to give to you. We also did not get an increase in Social Security benefits this month. So I don't know where that stands right now. So obviously we are looking for this revaluation of currencies which by the way there's another Mea culpa but I guess you'd say we did get the last Friday. The bonds were seized in terms of being sold. That would be German bonds and all the various Chinese dragon colored bonds were stopped. I don't get it. All bonds were stopped I know those two types of classifications ceased at midnight, central time last Friday, but the currencies that we thought would stop then we're told they might stop them on Sunday at five o'clock. That didn't happen - currencies are still available. Now - Here's, here's the situation. The bonafied currency sellers whether it's on eBay, whether they're brick and mortar stores, wherever they are, they will be getting a communication from Treasury and asked when that communication is sent by email to change the values of currencies or the prices of them or remove them for sale in 15 minutes - manually. It can't be pre programmed to happen by a computer they have to physically go and manually change their offerings, whether it's removed them from being for sale, or change the price to reflect it. Now, the currencies that we're talking about are not going to be affordable to buy. They're not - can you imagine. Now. They're not going to be for sale, the Zim will be gone - dinar gone - that are already gone. All these currencies that we're looking at to go way up in value will not likely be available anymore. So that's what's going to happen. These currency sellers receive emails telling them, they should receive a notification from Treasury in the next several days, four or five days that would ask them to make those changes or remove the currency for sale. So that is how they're gonna be notified. We don't have a fixed absolute time or date right now for that to happen. So we got clarification on that. Again, our timing is close on this. Okay. So, that is what I wanted to bring to you guys tonight. And I just want to thank everybody, for being there with us, especially our international listeners who may be hearing me it should be Renee and Marie, multiple languages around the globe. I mean, we are getting the word and the big call out in sight in almost simultaneous translation in three seconds from the time I speak and it comes to this global community of the big fall in a matter of seconds. I appreciate everybody listening in on the intel giving me grace for the fact that we've all done everything but call it we cannot call it and then we try to do it. We get stuck. And I just think that our best bet is to stay with a plan A till the numbers come out. Thank you Sue. glad that you're back. Thank you, Bob. Thank you GCK Jeanne and Pastor Scott content, continued healing to you, as well as Jeanne And for anyone else that's behind the scenes, our sat team or satellite team that's getting the call out globally, thank you guys for putting negative, and thank you for everything that all of your listeners, meant to be called over the last 12 years. Let's see where we're going to go now the next couple of days.
TO FACILITATE BANKING PROCEDURES…THE IRAQI CENTRAL BANK TAKES 6 NEW STEPS (DOCUMENTS) BY MNT GOAT, 28 OCT
TO FACILITATE BANKING PROCEDURES…THE IRAQI CENTRAL BANK TAKES 6 NEW STEPS (DOCUMENTS)
Today, Wednesday, October 25, 2023, the Central Bank of Iraq took 6 new steps to facilitate banking procedures, in a letter addressed to all licensed banks.
According to the book, a copy of which Al-Sumaria News obtained, banks must act according to the following all approved banks
M/ Facilitating banking procedures
good greeting…
Addendum to our circulars No. 2/9/275, 9/2/119, and 9/2/126 on 1/7/2019, 23/23 and 2/26/2023, regarding facilitating the procedures for opening accounts and marketing banking services, given the connection between the performance of banks. And their profitability with those products and services, which is reflected in the growth and development of the Iraqi banking sector, expanding financial inclusion, and increasing confidence in this sector. Therefore, bank departments must work on the following:
1.Consider taking into account the interest and return rates for savings accounts – deposits that encourage attracting funds to the sector. The Iraqi banker, in accordance with the monetary policy of this bank.
2.It is necessary for the awareness, media and relations departments in your banks to carry out a media campaign through official websites, as well as on social networking sites, and all official channels and newspapers for the purpose of attracting customers and advertising all the products and services provided by the bank, as well as carrying out external financial transfer operations at the official exchange rate in all branches of your bank and preparing Your employees, which motivates customers to enter the banking sector and enjoy these services.
3.It is necessary for you to work on what your banks offer through (our bank application), in Raqia Private Tennis, (might be a bad translation) and to promote this through all newspapers and social media.
4.Holding awareness workshops, seminars and conferences that encourage customers to enter the banking sector.
5.The necessity of working to expand the procedures related to the process of promoting the deposit insurance company further through the use of the official websites of your banks, or holding meetings with a sample of merchants and investors in order to reassure customers that there is insurance for your banks in the deposit insurance company, and thus the deposits will be returned to them in the event of the bank’s insolvency. In accordance with the instructions and controls issued in this regard.
6.A link is attached to the account opening forms for individual accounts, as well as (merchant accounts), (corporate accounts), and (joint accounts) to work according to, which makes it easier for customers of all types to open accounts with ease and ease, provided that (the form organizer – the liaison officer in the branches) Or the director of the reporting department or his assistant at the main branch – the branch manager – signs the form, and the form data is updated and the Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office is informed in the event of suspicions, without notifying the client of this.
Working in accordance with the requirements of the stated directives will be a critical criterion in evaluating the performance of banks in order to serve the national economy, the banking sector, and the public, with the Central Bank’s readiness to provide support and support to achieve this.
"RV UPDATE" BY BRUCE, KAPERONI & DESERT ADVISOR, 28 OCT
Bruce
New Iraqi Dinar Rate expected to be published in Gazette Fri. or Sat. 27, 28 Oct...International Iraqi Dinar Rate expected to be very high, as is Dong...
KaperoniEasing sanctions on Venezuelan oil.. What does this have to do with Kurdistan region oil?, 28 OCT
Easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil.. What does this have to do with Kurdistan region oil?
The United States recently eased Venezuelan oil sanctions after years of blockade, which opened the door for energy experts and specialized monitoring companies to provide their estimates about the effects of this easing on regional and global oil markets.
In this context, a detailed analytical report predicted a weak impact of the expected increase in oil productionVenezuelaOn global oil markets, after easing partial, temporary US sanctions for 6 months, subject to extension or cancellation.
The report, issued by the specialized company Energy Outlook Advisors , suggested that Venezuelan oil production would grow by no more than 200,000 barrels per day in the short term, and 400,000 barrels per day by the end of next summer of 2024, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Details of the politically conditional sanctions.
The easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions came within the framework of a political deal with the government of the current Venezuelan presidentNicolas Maduroleft-leaning party, to hold fair elections in which the American-leaning opposition participates in 2024
.Office of Foreign Assets Control, of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC), 4 general authorizations to suspend certain sanctions imposed onVenezuelaAfter the success of the government and the opposition in signing the electoral road map agreement in 2024.
The duration of these licenses is 6 months, during which oil and gas transactions are allowed between the United States and...VenezuelaHowever, its renewal will remain dependent on the Madror government’s fulfillment of its political obligations towards the electoral road map, in addition to the release of detainees, according to a statement issued by the US Treasury Department on October 18, 2023. Some licenses allow dealing with the state oil company
inVenezuelaIt exports its oil to the United States, and also allows commercial dealings with the state-owned Venezuelan gold mining company, Minerven.
Some other licenses also provide for amending the secondary trading ban imposed on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, while remaining the ban on trading in the Venezuelan secondary bond market.
While some licenses stipulate amending the secondary trade ban imposed on dealing in the debt and shares of the Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos DeVenezuelaSA (PdVSA).
Anticipation of the election schedule in November
. The US Treasury says that the goal of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil and the trade in gold, bonds, and Venezuelan debt is to limit illegal activities in these sectors and prevent the ruling regime from benefiting from their revenues. These measures
can To succeed in limiting money flows to the government of President Maduro, but previous experiences indicate that theoretical sanctions on paper are usually applied differently in reality, and may not achieve their goals, and may even achieve opposite goals, directly or indirectly, as in the case of sanctions on... Russia, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
In any case, the Maduro government has until next November to set a final timetable for the elections expected in 2024, amid warnings from the US administration to reimpose some sanctions, if the government does not commit to setting The timetable is during the next month.
Despite these warnings and conditions in the decision to ease Venezuelan oil and other trade sanctions, the US administration may turn a blind eye to implementing some or all of them, due to its dire need to reach an agreement with the Maduro government at the present time, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
The easing was not related to events in the Middle East.
The move was to ease some of the sanctions imposed on...VenezuelaExpected since last year, it came as a result of long negotiations that have nothing to do with current events in the Middle East (Israeli attacks on Gaza).
The President's administration allowed itJoe BidenLast year, two European companies, the Italian Eni and the Spanish Repsol, exported Venezuelan oil to Europe, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
As for the giant American company Chevron, it did not leaveVenezuelaDespite the Venezuelan oil sanctions imposed under former President Donald Trump, the company succeeded in obtaining exemptions from Trump as well as Biden.
The company obtained a license in November 2022 to produce Venezuelan oil and export it to the United States for a renewable period of 6 months.
*Dilution effect in the Venezuelan oil sector
needsVenezuelaThe company, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, relies on the expertise and technical capabilities enjoyed by international oil and service companies, which makes it in dire need of the expertise of companies such as Chevron and Schlumberger International Oilfield Services (SLB).
The Venezuelan oil sector also needs urgent foreign investment, after years of lack of investment, poor maintenance, and the flight of personnel and technical expertise to work abroad, which led to a sharp decline in its production of crude and condensates over the past two decades.
Venezuelan oil production has declined significantly over the past two decades, from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to 735,000 barrels per day in September 2023.
Venezuelan Oil and Liquids Production
The Venezuelan oil industry is in dire need of some diluents known as natural gasoline, symbolized by ( C5), to be mixed with its heavy crude so that it can be transported or exported via pipelines and tankers.
It is expected that the easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions will facilitate the entry of diluents into the countryVenezuelaIn the short term, this will benefit US shale oil producers.
Energy Outlook Advisors estimates the volume of diluents that US producers can export toVenezuelaNot to exceed 125 thousand barrels per day in the short term, which is a relatively small amount that is expected to double depending on developments in sanctions and the political deal concluded with the Maduro government.
Some American refineries need heavy Venezuelan crude, especially refineries located on the American Gulf Coast, due to the nature of their superior technical capabilities suitable for refining and processing heavy types of oil.VenezuelaAnd other countries of the world.
If mitigating materials are availableVenezuelaIt can add 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day within weeks, then production will stabilize for several months until the results of new investments and the participation of major oil services companies begin, and their effects will be partially reflected in the increase in production, according to a previous report issued by Energy Outlook Advisors in 2022.
*Production booms take 3 years.
Increasing production in large quantities, reaching one million barrels per day, takes at least 3 years, based on a review of the experiences of 6 oil-producing countries that suffered from political instability and sanctions, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
The American company Chevron has succeeded in adding 200,000 barrels per day to the total Venezuelan oil production at the present time, and it is expected to increase by another 100,000 barrels only in the short term, and it is expected that most of these additions will go to export.
If the political deal concluded with the president goes wellNicolas MaduroThe election dates have been set for 2024, and the United States is expected to renew the licenses for another six months.
This extension will allow major oil services companies, such as the American Schlumberger SLB, to increase Venezuelan oil production by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the summer of 2024, that is, immediately before the US presidential elections, most of which will likely be exported to America.
Venezuelan oil exports to the United States
and Energy Outlook Advisors doubts a full political solution will be reached in...VenezuelaThe American party is satisfied, but it believes that the Biden administration will turn a blind eye to any electoral violations or human rights violations in exchange for the continuation of the agreement.
Accordingly, Venezuelan oil production and exports will see significant increases even if the government does not meet the conditions set by the Biden administration and the US Treasury Department in the sanctions relief statement, issued on October 18, 2023. If the US-leaning Venezuelan opposition wins the elections, it may find itself
facing Strong internal opposition due to declared American support, and what may result in distorting its reputation and questioning the extent of its independence in running the country away from American tutelage, in addition to describing it as treason, because it came to power under very clear and frank American pressure.
The opposition will also face another crisis related to the lack of technical expertise and the flight of personnel from the state oil company after the late leftist president Hugo Chavir expelled many of them during the period from 2002 to 2003, which forced a large number of experts and engineers to leave.VenezuelaTo work in Colombia and the Middle East.
What is the relationship with Kurdistan oil?
Based on these factors, Energy Outlook Advisors does not expect a rapid boom in Venezuelan oil production in the medium or long term, but increases will remain limited and slow.
The company also expects a limited impact of any potential production increases on global oil markets and prices, due to the expected increase in global demand during the next few years, which makes any increase in productionVenezuelaLimited and narrow impact.
But on the other hand, increasing heavy oil production in...VenezuelaTo alleviate the tightness of the global medium sour oil market, especially if exports from the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq remain outside the market, according to the analysis.
At the local level, the Venezuelan government’s revenues from oil exports are expected to recover, and this may stimulate the exhausted economy and lead to an increase in domestic oil consumption in the coming years, and may push the government to direct most of the productivity increases to domestic consumption instead of international markets.
Canadian oil is the first victim
Canadian oil appears to be the first victim affected by the easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, amid expectations of an increase in US oil imports.VenezuelaAt the expense of neighboring Canadian oil.
It is expected that the price differences between American and Canadian oil crudes will increase with the increase in US imports of Venezuelan oil, but these risks could subside once a pipeline is operational.Trans MountainWhich is strongly supported by the Canadian government.
Some American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico region fear that they will be negatively affected if Canada begins exporting its oil through a pipeline.Trans Mountain, amid expectations that this will lead to a decrease in the volumes of Canadian oil exports to America and an increase in its prices, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
Based on this, these refineries see imports from...VenezuelaIt became a necessity as Canada rushed to build the line and wanted to get it up and running as quickly as possible.
Canada's ambitions to diversify its crude oil exports to countries other than the United States appear to be limited by the extent of its ability to increase production from the main province of Alberta, the prices of crude oil in Asia, the extent of its ability to compete with discounted Russian and Iranian crude oils to Asia, and the prices of Saudi Aramco.
Based on this, Energy Outlook Advisors expects Canadian oil exports to the United States to be affected by the thaw in US-Venezuelan relations and the increase in Venezuelan production, and the subsequent increase in exports to America.
It should be noted thatVenezuelaCrude oil was exported to several countries other than the United States, most notably neighboring Cuba, Spain, China and other countries, and was often accused of exporting through back doors, such as Iran and Russia. Source: link
TIDBIT FROM MILITIAMAN, 22 DEC
Militia Man Outside illicit trade have been warned about "SHOCKS"... T h e dollar auctions are going to cease and apparently wi...
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Frank26 [Bank story] This time we didn't go down, we just called [the bank]... We said we want to see if we can exchange some cu...
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Bank appointment for Currency EXCHANGE Instructions/Checklist Bank Name_________________________________________ Bank 800#____________...
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Walkingstick All these meetings that the CBI had with all these agencies that were helping them with their monetary reform are done. Al...