Very quiet overnight on the RV side…..but, great expectations for this weekend or the first part of this week. My redemption center folks are on call this weekend. They are not at work…they are “on call”...Last week I told you all that I know a number of bankers...put on “stand by” for imminent currency value changes. I thought this was huge news. My bank crew is sure ramped up and expecting something big this week.
…no update yet...from redemption center folks...as to whether they expect to work this weekend. I have been hitting a brick wall…their phones seem to be turned off…. I don’t know if that is a great thing or a coincidence. Yesterday a number of them told me they are on “stand by” specifically for currency exchanges. I think this is huge. Let’s see if something comes of it.
More chatter on the Iraqi side of things with great expectations for the weekend.
Most are looking Late Saturday/early Sunday for something from Iraq. Some type of announcement?
A lot of my sources feel that Monday is our day…A lot of them …actually...think our day is before that and Monday is when we start going to the bank! They are all expecting big things this weekend. I am hesitant to say if it’s a “go” or “not a go” just yet. But I am excited about the potential. There is nothing negative at all.
...From the banking side (I got this from a couple different sources) So from bankers in different states…They were told they are officially on “STAND BY”... We have not seen that in a very, very long time…and I have never gotten it from multiple states in different areas that are un-related…AND, these are from different top-tier banks. So this is something going out from multiple banks…in multiple states.
Central Bank of Iraq and Reuters announced: “Next Sunday (8 Oct.) will be a special day in all Iraqi banks, which could witness unprecedented overcrowding and crowding at cash withdrawal windows.”
Iraqis were told in mosques: “A new Iraq will begin by Sunday (8 Oct.).”
Arab Council of Interior Ministers to convene in Baghdad to discuss remote security training, 8 OCT
Shafaq News/ The General Secretariat of the Arab Council of Interior Ministers on Sunday announced its decision to hold a meeting in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, to deliberate on several critical issues, notably remote security training and qualification methods.
According to a statement issued by the Council's General Secretariat, the 13th Arab Conference of Heads of Security Training and Qualification Institutions, under the patronage of the Prime Minister of Iraq and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, will take place in Baghdad, hosted by the Ministry of Interior, from October 10th to 11th of this year.
The statement indicated that the conference will include representatives from the interior ministries of Arab countries, along with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Naif Arab University for Security Sciences, and delegates from the General Secretariat of the Arab Council of Interior Ministers.
The conference's agenda features a range of topics, including a conceptual model for remote security training and qualification, remote training: advantages and disadvantages, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on security training and qualification programs in the Arab world, and the "Nationalize" the English curriculum taught in the Arab interior ministries.
The General Secretariat will present the conference's recommendations to the next session of the Arab Council of Interior Ministers for appropriate actions to be taken, the statement concluded.
I was...told [by my CBI contact in Iraq] not to over-speculate on the RV and the CBI has a plan and is actively working on it.
The CBI can not put the cart before the horse and needs the support of the GOI for all the monetary reform.
They feel that Al-Sudani is definitely onboard with the details of this effort and “fully” supports the plan and what the CBI is doing in this regards. They also told me the re-education news (program) is about to come out.
Stay tuned…
I asked [my CBI contact in Iraq] about the project to delete the zeros and was told it is coming and is now an active project no longer just a later project.
I asked for some target dates and was given that they planned to redenominate sometime prior to the end of the year. To me this is so inline what we are thinking for a January 2024 reinstatement timeframe and other events also lining up.
The Dollar’s Dance: Exchange Rate Fluctuations Impacting Baghdad and Erbil, 8 OCT
Fluctuating Fortunes of the U.S. Dollar in Baghdad and Erbil
The U.S. dollar, a global benchmark of economic strength, has undergone significant fluctuations in Baghdad and Erbil. In Baghdad, the value of the dollar escalated to 158,350 Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars, marking a noteworthy increase from the preceding day’s rate of 157,500 dinars. This surge has directly impacted the selling prices in local currency exchange shops, signaling a robust demand for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, in Erbil, the dollar’s value experienced a downfall, with a selling rate of 157,700 dinars and a buying rate of 157,600 dinars per 100 dollars in local currency exchange shops.
Role of Safe Assets in Dollar Value Determination
The value of the dollar against other currencies is significantly influenced by the demand for U.S. dollar safe assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. This demand directly impacts exchange rates and influences the convenience yield that investors are willing to accept when purchasing U.S. dollars. The convenience yield can be understood as the market value of the tranquility and assurance that comes with investing in U.S. dollars.
The ‘Specialness’ of the Dollar
The U.S. dollar enjoys a special status in the global economy, primarily due to its ability to issue safe assets. U.S. Treasuries are perceived as the safest investment worldwide, enabling the U.S. government to pay lower interest rates on its bonds compared to other countries. This special demand for U.S. safe assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries, often results in the appreciation of the dollar against foreign currencies.
Future Ramifications of Dollar Value Fluctuations
According to recent research, a large fraction of the variation in dollar exchange rates can be attributed to the shifting value that foreign investors place on holding safe assets denominated in U.S. dollars. This revelation disrupts the traditional understanding of exchange rate movements, suggesting that the demand for U.S. dollar safe assets is a key factor in determining the dollar’s value in the global currency market. As the world continues to grapple with economic uncertainty, the fluctuations in the dollar’s value will undoubtedly have significant implications for global investors, policymakers, and economies at large.
Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline: Uncertainty Looms Over Resumption of Operations, 8 OCT
Recent reports indicate that a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the resumption of operations of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. This skepticism stems from the fact that Iraq has not yet received any formal notification from Turkey regarding the operation of the pipeline that brings crude oil from Iraq to global markets. The report, according to two senior oil officials in Iraq, raises speculation about the pipeline’s operational status.
A Dispute in Suspension
The pipeline’s operation was suspended six months ago due to a payment dispute between Turkey and Iraq. Turkey’s Energy Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, had announced that operations on the oil pipeline would restart this week. However, the lack of formal notification from Turkey to Iraq suggests that the pipeline may not be operational yet.
The pipeline is expected to supply half a million barrels of crude oil to global markets. Turkey halted flows on the pipeline after an arbitration ruling ordered them to pay damages for unauthorized exports. Following this, Ankara initiated maintenance work on the pipeline, which contributes to approximately 0.5% of global crude supply.
Implications for Global Oil Supply
The pipeline’s uncertain operational status has implications for global oil markets. The Iraq-Turkey pipeline is a significant conduit for Iraq’s crude oil exports and contributes to global oil supply. Any delays or disruptions in its operations could potentially impact global oil prices and supply dynamics.
The lack of a formal notification about the pipeline’s operational status fuels these uncertainties. Until such notification is received and confirmed by Iraqi officials, questions about the pipeline’s operational status will remain, casting a shadow over its expected contribution to global crude supply.
Looking Ahead
The situation surrounding the Iraq-Turkey pipeline serves as a reminder of the complexities involved in international energy trade. Disputes between countries can have far-reaching implications, impacting not just bilateral relations but also the global energy market.
For oil-dependent economies like Iraq, ensuring the smooth operation of export pipelines is critical. Therefore, the resolution of the current situation will be closely watched by stakeholders in the energy sector.
As stakeholders await further developments, the situation underscores the importance of transparent and effective communication in global energy cooperation. The absence of formal communication between Turkey and Iraq in this case has only served to amplify uncertainties, demonstrating the need for improved dialogue and information-sharing practices in such critical matters.
