Talks ongoing to restart iraq oil exports via turkish pipeline, 4 OCT
Shafaq News / Talks to restart Iraqi oil exports via a crude oil pipeline that runs through Turkey are still ongoing, an Iraqi oil official told Reuters, one day after Turkey said operations would start again this week following a near six-month stoppage.
“We have further meetings soon and things will be more clear on how serious is Turkey to show some flexibility,” the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar had said on Monday that Turkey would resume operating the pipeline this week while speaking on a panel at the ADIPEC energy conference in the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi.
Iraq has not made an official comment on the matter.
Ankara halted flows on Iraq’s northern oil export route about six months ago after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad damages for unauthorised exports by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) between 2014 and 2018.
Turkey later started maintenance work on the pipeline that contributes about 0.5% of global crude supply. Baghdad and Ankara agreed to wait until a maintenance assessment on the pipeline, which goes through a seismic zone, was complete to restart flows while still engaging in a legal battle on arbitration awards.
“We’re still in the middle of ongoing talks and predicting when oil flow could be resumed depends on how positive the results will be around sticking issues,” the official said, adding: “Also if Turkey is willing to hold off on its demands and allow oil exports to restart without setting preconditions.”
Sources have told Reuters that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is likely to visit Baghdad in October to resolve the issue.
In April, Iraq petitioned a U.S. federal court to enforce the ICC arbitration award.
Ankara is seeking a halt to this U.S. litigation and a lack of progress on resolving this issue was one of the reasons behind the postponement of a planned August visit by Erdogan, sources have said.
HCL STANDS FOR HYDROCARBON LAW. IT IS MONEY THAT IRAQI CITIZENS GET AS A STIPEND FOR THE OIL THAT BAGHDAD SELLS.
IT IS BELIEVED THAT IF THE IRAQI CITIZENS WERE GETTING THEIR HCL STIPENDS, IT WOULD BE AT THE NEW RATE.
RayRen98 (TNT)
They are making HCL payments through out the country today…
[via Babysmom]
Tuesday Afternoon Update: “I DO”BELIEVE ” THAT IT HAS BEGUN”…”THE COUNTDOWN HAS CONCLUDED…”
Bruce
[via WiserNow] ...they paid contractors...and they're also paying on the HCL Law...The oil and gas law...they've paid people that we know have already received it...
So Iraq is rolling...they're doing everything that they said that they were going to do and bringing it out including their budget and all of that good stuff...I'm looking forward to everything transpiring. This is an incredible time for us.
Everything is ready to go...getting ready to get notified that appointments can start exchanges... hopefully as early as tomorrow [Wednesday] afternoon/evening.
Iraqi Prime Minister Stresses Importance of Stable Relations with Kurdistan Region Amid Ongoing Budget Disputes, 4 OCT
In a recent statement, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani expressed the critical need for maintaining stable relations with the Kurdistan Region. He emphasized that the Region’s stability directly contributes to the overall stability of Iraq. According to Al-Sudani, addressing current issues in the Region requires prioritizing the interests of its people and overcoming existing differences.
Delay in Budget Allocation Sparks Criticism
Over the past few months, the federal government of Iraq has repeatedly delayed providing the Kurdistan Region with its share of the federal budget. Experts have described this strategy as ‘hostile’, terming it a ‘deliberate effort’ aimed at provoking unrest among the people in the Region. Due to these delays, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has been unable to pay public sector salaries on time.
Promise of Funds Following Visit by KRG Prime Minister
However, the situation took a turn after a recent visit by KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to Baghdad. Following this visit, the federal government agreed to provide the necessary funds to pay Kurdistan’s civil servants until the budgetary issues are resolved. This move is seen as a step towards better relations between the central Iraqi government and the KRG.
The Impact of Budget Disputes on Public Sentiment
The prolonged budget disputes and resultant delays in salary payments have considerably strained the public sentiment in the Kurdistan Region. The commitment from the federal government to provide necessary funds for civil servant salaries comes as a relief. However, a permanent solution to the budget disputes is still awaited. The current situation underscores the importance of maintaining stable relations between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Region, as emphasized by Prime Minister Al-Sudani.
Welcome everybody to the big call tonight - it is Tuesday October 3rd, and you're listening to the big call. I don't know what our reach is tonight as we try to speak to the big call universe throughout the globe - we will always find that out a day or two after the call. But whoever is hearing my voice – Welcome - Thanks for tuning in, and for being part of big call universe
Okay, so let's talk about where we stand now and when the Intel is taking us - Jeanie mentioned it’s today that is Iraq's Independence Day. They did make an announcement this morning about their independence and declaring themselves a sovereign state - again on this day - they did not did not mention at this point that they have a newly revalued currency. That announcement is coming.
But they are starting to pay back to well they paid contractors pay and they've also paying on the HCL Law - The oil and gas law. They're paying out the profit sharing throughout the country to the citizenry in Iraq, for the oil and gas that they're pumping out.
And so this HCL it turns into real money fast because they've paid people that we know have already received it. And some people receive it tomorrow. At 10 o'clock. I mean, they'll have access to it at 10am and others of them might get it the next day.
So they're staggering it out a little bit, but they're paying that and they're paying back pay for other things that are more retribution type benefits. I think they're paying those out as well. So Iraq is rolling.
I don't know if the dinar rate is going to come out in the Gazette or not tomorrow, it really doesn't matter. Because I think from our point of view, they're doing everything that they said that they were going to do and bringing it out including their budget and all of that good stuff.
Right should be in the budget. So if that comes out in the Gazette, great, if it doesn't, kind of make or break us.
Now - The other things that are happening, let's talk briefly about something that I think Jeanie brought up in her praise report tonight. And that was what's going to happen tomorrow.
We talked about on the big call at least a week ago, maybe longer, like about a week ago about the idea of a disruption of service cell phones, internet and satellite television.
However, I find out today and that was going to be from one o'clock Eastern to 2:02 Eastern, so an hour and two minutes from 1PM to 2:02 in the afternoon tomorrow.
Now, one of our sources is saying that he believes that he's very well tied into everything. He believes that that is going to be only for the deep state that it would not affect all of us. But it affects the deep state and they know who they are.
And they know you know their cell numbers, they know everything. And so that way they can do a final cleanup on aisle four or five and six on those individuals - during that time.
That is what I'm going to go with believing that should be the case. Now there's a separate thing that happens at 1:20pm Eastern time tomorrow.
So if you're on central it would be 12 Let's see. No no, check that to 2:20 here. That's what I just said 2: 20 PM. Thank you 2:20pm is when the testing of the EAS – EBS and EWS which EWS is emergency wireless system.
Those three are theoretically merging and be an actual test that takes place after the Starlink system has fully integrated or self service, our internet and our satellite TV.
So that Starlink system is supposed to interconnect all those things and bring us back cell service at 10 G and bring us back internet 100 times faster than it is now by using the Starlink satellite system.
So we'll see how that goes tomorrow - but the test itself at 2:20pm. Eastern time. - That test might be more than a test. It could be an announcement of some kind, and we're not sure what it might be about. Exactly. So maybe it's just a test. Or maybe there's an announcement that is tied to it. Okay, we'll see what that is. We'll see how that goes.
So that's about tomorrow's test window. And again, if there's a disruption of service, it hopefully will not affect us as a whole. But just the deep state that they're, they're tracking.
Now, beyond that. Let's go to our timing - bondholders - You know, we tend to watch what happens with tier three, the bondholders - because we know that we're essentially following them in this case –
Tier three bondholders have been called by the bank - in this case Wells Fargo to go in to do the essentially start over with the KYC type information the Know Your Customer stuff, to get pictures made - to get biometric fingerprints done - to sign off with final signatures in the case of the this was in the case of the Chinese dragon bonds.
And by doing that, they've got their credit cards or really their debit cards I guess, ready to go. And we're hearing that those modelers some of whom we know are going to be called tomorrowl afternoon or emailed tomorrow afternoon.
And we think that that call or email will give them access to funds when they receive that call or email should have access tomorrow afternoon. When that occurs, now that sets us up.
I don't know that this plays into it or not. But the Iraqi citizens and Iraqi Americans since which we know are supposed to have access to air funds from the HCL law tomorrow at around 10 in the morning.
We'll see if that. If that happens for them, we'll find that out.
But we did speak to one of the absolute top Wells Fargo sources all the way up all the way up the totem pole to the top. And he said yesterday that we should get our notifications and tier 4B tomorrow around noon.
Now another source who happens to be with the redemption center of Wells Fargo said to us today that we should look for our notifications anytime between 11 in the morning 11am and 1pm tomorrow.
Now if we hear this from another source, if we don't give them then which it does look good for us tomorrow noon, somewhere around noon to 11 to one -- .
If that doesn't happen tomorrow, we should look for them to come out either tomorrow afternoon or evening or by Thursday morning. And exchanges would start obviously, if it's late tomorrow afternoon.
We're going to start on Thursday anyway. If we get around 11 to one, there's a very good chance we'll start exchanges tomorrow. They only need about two hours. Let's say we got it at noon - And we call and set our appointments. First appointments could be as early as2 – 2:30 in the afternoon.
And some of these redemption centers are set to go to nine or 10 o'clock at night. It just depends on the demographic. How many Zim owners they know are in the area, etc, etc.
All kinds of variables. But I don't think it's going to be too late to go tomorrow afternoon evening if we get notified between 11 am and 1 pm tomorrow.
So we're going to keep an eye out for the EAS emergency alert system, Emergency Broadcast System or C wireless system - we’ll keep an eye out for that timeframe at 2:20pm tomorrow afternoon now, obviously that's Eastern time.
So central would be 1:20 - Mountain would be 12:20 and then Pacific would be 1120 in the morning. That's when we think those tests will all occur based on Eastern time.
Let's see where else we want to go with that --- I did see something that was brought to my attention that I realized was not true. And that was rates. Rates were bought out again and you guys know I don't really talk specifically on rates. But I can tell you what was put out is way off we've got very strong rates on dinar and Dong well into double digits.
And actually if you are offered a contract rate on dinar even if you are a zim holder, you can still for what the latest is they don't change it the latest says you could have access to the contract rate on the dinar which is very, very high. Just telling you so if they don't offer it, which they should but if they don't, and your Zim holder, you still can ask about it.
And they know what it is and it's on the screen and we know where it is and we know where it tops off the maximum amount. It's an incredible deal.
A lot of the currencies are in the same relative range, like the Afghani Afghanistan Afghani, the rupiah and the Bolivar and even the shekel and the Argentine peso, etc
This is a call I was looking for --- - I'll take this real quick -- Hold on
That was not the call I was expecting that was another call. But did confirm. It did confirm the timing that I said about notifications tomorrow.
So we should be good on that. And I'm looking forward to everything transpiring.
This is an incredible time for us. Theoretically I what we're hearing, I'm just telling you what I'm getting you guys. Everything is ready to go. We've heard that - We've also heard that tiers one, two and three are active. we told you about the bondholders being active and getting access to funds tomorrow afternoon. And I think we are right alongside them, getting ready to get notified that appointments can start exchanges. hopefully as early as tomorrow afternoon evening. Okay.
But guys, this has been a really good ride. Let's hope that we're at the end of it. We shall see they have pushed us back a couple of days. We heard last Thursday, and Friday. And so we're really on good track. Let's stay with it. Stay positive. And let's look forward to this happening and coming through for us.
We will be in touch with you by email. Okay. so that's what I wanted to bring to you guys tonight. I'm excited about this. It's looking good. let's do this. let's pray the call out and then we'll go away.
The Dollar Is Heading To Rise And Two Proposals Have Been Identified To Control The “Price Madness”.. What Is The Relationship With Iran?
Economy |Baghdad today - Baghdad Today, Wednesday (October 4, 2023), economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi identified two options to address the dollar problem in Iraq, while confirming that the exchange rate is on its way to rising during the coming period.
The dollar exchange rates in Iraqi local markets are witnessing unstable jumps until they approached 160 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars, in conjunction with information about American intentions to impose sanctions on new banks that are not committed to the terms of transferring and financing trade using the dollar.
The Key To The Solution
Al-Marsoumi said in an interview with “Baghdad Today” that “the key to resolving the crisis and the dollar problem in Iraq exists and is not far away,” pointing out that the Central Bank’s current sales are to cover external transfers and documentary credits, and therefore their numbers are reasonable and proportional to the volume of foreign trade.
He added, “The main problem is that the Central Bank financed trade with Iran, which amounts to $10 billion, through external transfers to Emirati banks, before it adopted the electronic platform, and after it was cut off, merchants and companies began to finance imports through the parallel market to obtain the US dollar.” This means that it is not for smuggling or money laundering, but rather for real trade.”
Al-Marsoumi pointed out, “The more the electronic platform tightened its procedures in terms of reducing the shares of banking offices and companies, the more the scarcity of cash dollars increased, in addition to the fact that the volume of tourism between Iraq and Iran is large and amounts to huge sums of money that are covered through the parallel market because travelers are deprived of obtaining dollars.” Via the official price.
New High
He continued, "The dollar is on its way to rise, especially with the Central Bank's action to reduce banks' shares of the cash dollar by half, accompanied by the imminent release of budget funds, which will lead to an increase in the import of consumer and investment materials because the volume of internal production does not cover the need."
The economic expert stated, “There are two options to end the dollar problem in Iraq, which are either to cancel the sanctions imposed on Iran or to cut off trade with it because adopting other currencies may fall under the heading of American sanctions,” pointing out that the adoption of bartering Iraqi oil for Iranian gas has not been implemented. "Actually because of the sanctions."
Severe Measures
On Monday (September 25, 2023), the American newspaper The Cradle described the recent measures of the Central Bank of Iraq as “severe,” by restricting dealing in the dinar and preventing the circulation of the dollar within the country, while noting that these measures came after American warnings against the Central Bank of Iraq due to continuing violations. .
The newspaper said, according to a report translated by “Baghdad Today,” that the new measures come against the backdrop of “warnings” issued by the US Federal Reserve against the Central Bank of Iraq, announcing the continuation of what it described as previous “violations” on the basis of which sanctions were imposed on 14 Iraqi banks, threatening to implement more. Sanctions on other banks.
The newspaper also confirmed that the dollar smuggling operations from inside the country led directly to “reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar and exposing it to significant inflation,” explaining that the measures of the Central Bank of Iraq come as another step to ensure the stability of the Iraqi dinar, especially in the current stage, which the newspaper described as “sensitive” as a result of American pressure on the central bank.
Penalties And Bans
It is noteworthy that a third of Iraqi banks are now exposed to US sanctions and a ban on dealing in dollars, which the Iraqi authorities are trying to avoid expanding due to its significant negative impact on the Iraqi economy, according to the newspaper’s description.
On Sunday (September 24, 2023), the Central Bank of Iraq announced the issuance of new instructions for selling the dollar, indicating that it seeks to open direct channels of communication for Iraqi banks with their foreign counterparts in correspondence and commercial exchange.
He pointed out, "The coming year will witness the restriction of all internal commercial and other transactions to the Iraqi dinar instead of the dollar." LINK
Famous Bank: The Middle East Is Going Through A Golden Age
October 2 18:30 Information/follow up.. JP Morgan's European head, Viswas Raghavan, said the Middle East is enjoying a "golden age" as global tensions drive money and talent to the region.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Raghavan said that there has been a jump in deal making and capital market opportunities in many countries in the past few quarters.
He added that most of the Middle East oil countries are in a very good position, whether to attract money managers and hedge funds, or also to their local economies, which have become dominant.
This is a golden age for Middle Eastern companies and the Middle East in general.
"I think it's here to stay."
Raghavan, who is CEO of JP Morgan in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said that the global outlook for investment banking shows “some green shoots”, especially in the technology space, although the number of opportunities is not yet a flood.”
He added that it is expected Total banking fees across the industry will reach $65 billion this year, compared to a typical year of about $80 billion. End/25S