BRUCE'S BIG CALL,

Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 9-28-23

  REPLAY LINK   Intel Begins   1:11:11

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Transcribed By WiserNow 

Welcome everybody around the globe to the big call.  It is Thursday, September 28th and you're listening to the big call. I'm glad to welcome people that may not have heard us before all over as we believe our reach may be the greatest that has ever been. We might being able to track the Starlink satellite system we might be able to be in as many as 206 countries tonight  we will see. I don't get those numbers till tomorrow or the next day probably.

October 1st is Sunday - So the 3rd  is just getting started in the month of October and you'll hear me say something in the Intel segment in just a few minutes that will describe how interesting the timing is about October 3rd , which is Tuesday. 

All right, so let's go back. We talked about Iraq, they'll have their new rate out on Sunday. Whether it goes in the Gazette or not Saturday, doesn't really matter but it may -  they are, as I mentioned going to be, like the independent nation and a sovereign state. They're going to evidently talk about that a little bit when they bring their new rate out internationally on Sunday. And so that's something that we can look forward to 

Now, for us, we really, from what we heard today, from our redemption center contacts, we really aren't looking to get notified over the weekend, anything is possible. We are hearing that we should be -hearing this from Wells Fargo - that we should get notified on Monday. We don't know what time – remember  Monday would be the second of October and we should get notified – set our appointments for Tuesday the third of October.

So that's the timing that we have right now. Now if you're traveling, or you're about to go on a trip, or you're going in the hospital, whatever it is, you're gonna have some time. Once those numbers come out, we expect them to come up Monday. You set your appointment as soon as you can, for a time that you think you'll be able to make your appointment.

 If you're out to sea right now and you're coming back, but you won't be back till the 5th or the 7th  or whatever - set your appointment for after you've come back - give yourself enough time to get settled in and everything organized so that you can not go into the appointment flustered - you'll go in relaxed and ready to go.

Now one of the things that I've just brought to my memory. Each redemption center, And there's 1000s of them throughout the United States will have 3 Delarue machines - what is the delarue machine?

This is a machine that counts and verifies the currencies, all of them - And that information is fed into a laptop computer and then they go from there - once they're counting your money – they are tabulating it and tracking it on laptops, in the redemption centers. 

So if they've got three of those, they'll probably be able to work with two or three people at a time that each, each person is running  a delarue machine.   And so I just got that - came to me today. I just got that so wanted to bring that up,

Let's talk about bond holders are supposed to be the last count - they could get their notifications on Sunday - Sunday afternoon. They could get them then - I wouldn't be surprised if they’re pushed to Monday but right now they're on Sunday and should have access to funds on Monday.

We'll see if that holds up. They’ve been moved and pushed along like we have. But we're hearing that our group  tier 4 or tier 4 A & B should be notified on Monday and go into our appointments on Tuesday – 3rd  of October 

Alright let’s talk about timelines - on the 1st  of October, which is Sunday, the USN goes into play in the United States, our new United States asset backed  dollar - our USN -  so that could ------ now remember our banks are not open on Sunday. so it may show up on Monday at our banks. Our new currency - I don't know that – but I know we are on the new USN starting Monday October 1st 

 Realize October 1 is the start of the fourth quarter in the United States - So we've got three months,  final quarter -  October November December. 

Our USD Fiat dollar will no longer be worth anything after January 1st – ON  January 1st – That USD  we are going to have running concurrently with the USN physical currency / folding money you put in your pocket, your wallet, your purse, that will be coming out. And we'll have that at the redemption centers for us to we're doing exchanges starting Tuesday.

Okay, so that will be there. We'll get some of if some wants them the new USN  currency we can get it while we're doing our appointments. Now, their concept at the redemption centers is going to be to kind of get in and get out.

You know, kind of get it done not a whole lot extra time anything – get it  done and get out in and out is what they're calling it like in and out for California.

Alright, so think in terms of that in and out and the timing the timeline of this - In October, we should have NESARA and GESARA  announced sometime in the first couple of weeks of October. 

In the second week of October is when we believe restitution and reclamation allowance will start. I call it r&r for simplicity reclamation - restitution and reclamation allowance for seniors 60 over again lump sum amounts in the 50 to 60 range gets a total divided over 12 months. Again over 12 months 

 And then the 30 to 50 range getting paid over 15 years  - so different ways and the above  70 their lump sum also they get the lump sum and just like you know I'll get my age group  - 

So here's the thing - that starts the second week in October. Now, Social Security increases to where the maximum if you're older, I mean 70s 80s If you're in that age group you can top out at around $5,200 that starts in October. 

So whenever you get your Social Security now whatever Wednesday that is the highest paying out with max out  at 5200 dollars, people that are younger, or didn't put in as much or whatever would be less than that could be in the threes or the fours.

That increase occurs in October and would be that number for October, November and December. three more months, basically of social security -  then it switches over to a different version of the restoration and reclamation allowance being paid out monthly –

 And I don't know that the numbers change. I'm going to put the number out but that was - in terms of what I'm hearing that will replace Social Security. It would replace it, and it's a lot more money. It's a lot more, more than double.

So I don't want to say the numbers because it might be wrong. I don't want you guys to yell at me and think that I've tried to deceive you with it but it's really good but it starts in January. This r&r monthly amount  comes out in January.

I'm sorry, I can't define it better. They didn't even have a word for it. They don't even have a word that we know what to call it. Right now. So I’m calling it part of the restoration recommendation allowance we’ll see it's coming from a different fund. So it's not from the same fund – whatever it is  I'm fine with that but whatever it is, I'm sure everybody will look forward to receiving it.

Now if you're below the age of 60 You will be asked to sign something that says that you would continue on your job or get a job and still receive your age group you're getting paid out monthly, in a lesser age group of 30 to 50 you're getting paid out also monthly over 15 years. It's going to be a lot of money, it's going to be coming in to you - and the temptation would be not to work but if you stop working or you quit, your benefits will stop. You won't get it any longer.

So it's an encouragement and enticement incentive for you to keep your job or get a better job.

You know, don't stop working, keep going because we're going to need a lot of doing what we're doing from a humanitarian project point of view - and the jobs that we're going to have will be good paying jobs. You know that - that's something we can all look forward to.

All right starting January 1 all currencies around the globe are to be on par with one another.

Okay, that means the same let's say the Canadian dollar  and the  US dollar the USN - United States Treasury Note -  There'll be worth the same thing  with one to one.

What about Mexico? They’ve got a peso -  is worth about a nickle? You know, you get about 20 pesos to the dollar. That's gonna change. The peso  will be worth $1 Starting January, - all currencies that were exchanging or not exchanging, were all level up and my understanding  is that  they all will be worth  the same starting January. 

Now. There could be some exceptions or there could be some currencies that are slow on the uptake but at the same time, all countries have been told to mint and print their new currencies that will start January 1.  

Now, mint and print now to be ready for January 1.

And we've been minting and printing for quite a while. We've got our new coins out and our new money has been for I know at least two years now. And they're still doing it - printing for us and this money is asset backed. This money is backed by gold or other precious metals, by intellectual property - by oil and nat gas. It's really, really asset backed 

And that's the point of this whole thing. The whole reevaluation. The whole global currency revaluation – The GCR  is each country has its own assets, and it has its own value as a result. 

So we'll see how that all shakes out. But I'm looking forward to this as much as you guys are - going for us getting notified Monday and setting appointments to start on Tuesday 

They will probably go at least 12 to 14 days in the redemption centers. Some may close up early if they just didn't have enough Zim holders or enough people you know with currency in some parts of the country. It's a little light and they won't have they can get knock it out in four or five days. And that's gonna be that's gonna be good Let's, let's see if there's anything else it's pertinent for us.

I think we have what we need right there. I think that's everything we need to say 

 And I think that we're about to do to get organized. Some of us are moving some of our buying new homes or by buying cars we're going to be doing need to spend some time once we pay off all of the personal debt that we have anything like that. We'll be able to move forward. And I'm looking forward to that just like everybody else. We will be in touch with you by email. Because we will not be doing live calls anymore. Like we're doing tonight. We'll be doing emails with maybe a podcast.

 So I'm excited guys to say I really truly believe they finally hit the end zone are finally going to be there is all the information ordering is correct and I believe we should be good to go. Starting Monday for notifications and Tuesday and startup exchanges. So let's believe for that. Let's pray the call out. Enjoy the weekend. Okay. 

Thing are happening with Iraq

Iraqi Officials Eye a Path for Chinese-Iraqi Development, 29 SEPT

 Iraqi Officials Eye a Path for Chinese-Iraqi Development, 29 SEPT

In Iraq, the precarious reality and confused relationships seem to have driven al-Sudani’s government to attempt to circumvent the traditional binary choice between Washington and Moscow. This new course comes with a distinct and flashy name, the “Development Road” project, and looks to Beijing as a third way forward.

But these considerations compounded with the climate of regional tensions and interests of outside powers—competition between the Gulf and Iran, concerns over the ongoing repercussions of the strained relationship with Washington caused by the Trump administration, and the growing dominance of various armed groups close to Tehran.

This precarious reality and confused relationships likewise seem to have driven al-Sudani’s government to attempt to circumvent the traditional binary choice between Washington, the West, and most of the Gulf states on the one hand, and Tehran, Damascus, Lebanon, and their backer Moscow on the other. This new course comes with a distinct and flashy name, the “Development Road” project, and looks to Beijing as a third way forward.

Iraq’s political realignment is in large part a response to Iraqis’ shifting views of the United States and the broader geopolitical space: the haphazard American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the political changes in U.S. policy under Biden, the failure to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, the stagnation in the Syrian issue, Erdogan’s steadfast support of Putin, Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine, economic movement linked to oil prices, inflation, and financial turmoil in currency rates from Cairo to Tehran, fears of harsh economic sanctions, and, finally and most importantly, the economic rise of China.

Factors accelerating Iraq’s pursuit of China

Since the fall of the Saddam regime and subsequent American occupation in 2003, many Iraqis have felt trapped in the vortex of the U.S. and Gulf rivalry with Tehran and its allies, unable to escape. This bilateral state of competition has exhausted its forces domestically and made Iraq a battleground for competing powers to settle scores, with Iraqis paying a high price.

Hence, the important recent developments in international policies toward the Middle East have pushed Iraqi officials not beholden to Iran toward a new view, which may be of significant concern to Washington. In the eyes of many Iraqi officials, China’s growing role in the region is unencumbered by many of the issues associated with other actors. China has avoided engaging in direct competition with the United States, but regional developments are signs that Washington’s international retrenchment and Moscow’s inability to lead the world’s anti-U.S. faction are paving the way for Beijing’s political entry into the region.

China was and continues to be a prominent economic player in the area, as shown through its large commercial trade with the Middle East, the flow of goods, attractive energy markets, the movement of intermediary companies and financial interfaces, promising building projects, market underwriting, and banking services. Now, this role has begun to take on a political element as well, with Beijing playing a role in regional issues long seen as firmly under U.S. influence.

Iraqi officials are likewise attracted by the image of Chinese policy put forward by Chinese diplomats. In Baghdad, there is a perceived Chinese indifference to the style of governance in Third World countries, a non-interventionist policy, and a disinterest in dealing with sensitive issues like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Iraqi observers contrast China’s rapid economic rise and flashy promises with the decline of U.S. interest in the region.

Administration change in Washington has made these officials particularly cautious. Iraq felt it could not acquiesce to agreements and treaties with Washington that might terminate with a new U.S. administration. Likewise, the Iraqi government—which had long-standing and close relations with Moscow prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein—is aware that Russia cannot fill any potential U.S. vacuum.

Thus, the recent agreement between regional arch-enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by Beijing, was for Iraqi officials a declaration of China’s political emergence in the Middle East.

Iraq, which had a role in those negotiations, watched with amazement as Washington monitored the unfolding process without lifting a finger, and likewise watched how the Gulf and regional powers affiliated with Washington raced to apply to join BRICS, a group that many in the developing world consider a possible alternative to the current Western global leadership, economic and otherwise.

Baghdad saw signs of the first public rebellion by Washington’s Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE against U.S. demands on oil prices, along with the Gulf’s openness to Damascus and impartiality toward the Ukrainian conflict. The long-term agreement between China and Iran was viewed as the latest example of Beijing’s reach and its arrival at the borders of Iraq.

The perceived lack of U.S. reaction to these developments became one of the push factors for al-Sudani and his team to propose the Development Road project, which some consider an extension of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This step was tantamount to an Iraqi declaration to China that the country was politically open. Chinese companies already have billions of dollars’ worth of investments in Iraq, and the trade volume between the two countries was  more than USD 53 billion in 2022, according to a statement from the Chinese embassy in Baghdad. Nevertheless, China’s future potential political role in Iraq has been greatly strengthened by the announcement of the project.

Development Road Dreams and Hard Realities

Thus, many Iraqi officials have placed their hopes in the Development Road project as a prelude to a new relationship with Beijing. The project contains elements similar to Chinese projects in a number of Central Asian countries. It consists of a hypothetical chain of trade infrastructure, a network of ports and highways extending from the Gulf to Turkey from the direction of Zakho. The project also includes lengthy rail lines for transporting goods and people, a component reminiscent of Chinese projects elsewhere.

According to Iraqi sources, the plan includes “building 15 train stations for goods and passengers along the line, which will be 1,174 kilometers long and pass through 12 Iraqi governorates.” Yet the Chinese ambassador to Iraq, Cui Wei, said last June that “the strategic Iraqi Development Road project is “complimentary” to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Though this is somewhat general language, it is a likely indicator China’s true view of the project—that its actual implementation is not currently possible, and that as Iraq’s future capability to successfully implement the project does not inspire optimism.

Indeed, Iraqi officials will need to face the reality that the country lacks the capacity to undertake and complete such a vast project, whose stated cost will reach USD 17 billion. Iraq’s infrastructure is crumbling, basic services are weak, and the security situation remains vulnerable, all factors casting a shadow over the country. Furthermore, the domestic budget remains rent-seeking, unstable, and linked to the price of oil, an unsustainable economic situation for a country hoping to invest in grand works projects.

There are also obvious signs of decline in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar and a rapid decline in per capita income. Also, Kurdistan region has been suspicious about the project paths which avoid passing through the region under the pretext of the difficulty of the mountainous geography there. For them, this is a deliberate attempt to limit the region’s economic role.

And even if the project was feasible on the implementation front and an avenue for real economic growth for Iraq—a claim that is in itself subject to doubt—it may prompt countries that benefit from the status quo in Iraq to work to scuttle the project. Ironically, Iran may be among the opposing countries, especially if it senses any threat to its political and economic influence.

Regardless of the plan’s feasibility, the proposed Development Road project should be viewed as an indicator of Iraqi officials turn to China’s embrace. But these officials should be more cautious; they cannot be confident that Chinese involvement will achieve the optimistic targets Iraqi officials have placed on it. Protests in Central Asian countries against older BRI projects emphasize the potential pitfalls of a Chinese development project—one that Iraqi officials are currently ignoring.

The enthusiasm in Baghdad for increased Chinese involvement should also give the U.S. administration pause. If Washington hopes to stymie this move, the United States must make greater efforts to rebuild trust with its historical allies in the region and address the perception of U.S. abandonment. If this perception continues, governments in Iraq, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will increasingly facilitate China’s access to the centers of political decision-making in that crucial geographical region.   link

"RV UPDATE" BY FRANK26, 29 SEPT

 Frank26   

CSC is the Central Security Custody system.  Somewhere between the 28th and the 1st and these next 72 hours this CSC will go into effect because it was a mandate from the BIS to make sure Iraq was ready on the 28th to do international transfers...

The auctions we believe you will see a change in them on the 28th...This is an important step.  There are many steps that are occurring right now at the end of this monetary reform that are important. 

  On the 28th - go international financial transfers.  On October 1st - all international private satellite banks of the CBI around the world to be opened.  On 3rd - for them to have an Independence Day...In the days to come a new currency will be given to the Iraqi citizens IMO.  This is a forewarning a new exchange rate is coming but the new exchange rate won't come out until they give the new currency or simultaneously.  

 I believe on the 28th Iraq is going be in a position to do financial international transfers without any restrictions. 

 Oh, boy!  Wouldn't that be great? 

 I believe it's a 10 day period...28th to 8th of next month...I believe in these 10 days we're also going to see the HCL.  And I believe without a doubt, the reason why we haven't added the HCL and everything else is because we don't have a new international exchange rate.

..It is fantastic.  These 10 days have great potential for may things to be paid. 

"STATUS OF THE RV" BY MNT GOAT, 29 SEPT

 OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $94 A BARREL

Baghdad Today – Follow-up

Oil prices rose in early trading today, Wednesday (September 27, 2023), as markets focused on tight supplies ahead of winter and the “soft landing” of the US economy.

Industry data issued Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week by about 1.6 million barrels, compared to analysts’ expectations of a decline of approximately 300,000 barrels.

(Yet the dinar is at 1/6 of a penny still?)

More news….

THE DRAFT IRAQI OIL AND GAS LAW…THE “BIG KNOT” HAS NOT YET BEEN RESOLVED

(Any so-called intel guru that tells you the Oil and Gas law (HCL) is all done is flat out lying to you. Why do you even listen to their calls or visit their sites? They have no clue.)

Since the first session of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, in 2005, the draft oil and gas law has been locked away, as disagreements prevent its approval in its final form.

After 18 years, he announced, in late last August, the formation of a committee to develop “a draft of the oil and gas law and present it to the government and the House of Representatives,” according to what MP Firas Al-Muslimawy revealed to the Iraqi News Agency, “INA.”

The representative confirmed that “there is a real will in the House of Representatives to legislate the law,” noting that “Iraq’s oil is one and indivisible, and there is a movement towards achieving justice in the distribution of wealth to the people, whether in the Kurdistan region, the center, or the south.”

(I encourage everyone to read the entire article in the Articles Section of today’s Newsletter. It is very informative and will help you understand the delay in getting this law passed.)

Please also reference my up-to-date research on the Oil and Gas law in my blog by clicking on this LINK.

STATUS OF THE RV

So, in the past we have talked lots about SECURITY & STABILITY and how they were necessary to conduct the Project to Delete the zeros, which leads to the RV and Reinstatement. But we talked more about the stability part   and so let’s cover the security part today. Is Iraq secure?

Do they have the capability the worth off another major ISIS or like threat?

In today’s news Article Section we read and I quote – “The Joint Operations Command confirmed, today, Wednesday, that it possesses all preparations and weapons to preserve the country’s security and capabilities. The command’s spokesman, Major General Tahseen Al-Khafaji, said {to Al-Furat News}: “We, as security forces, possess the preparations and weapons that enable us to maintain the security of our country, its capabilities, and vital targets.” Al-Khafaji added, “The armament of the security forces is good and we aspire for it to be higher, as well”.

Also the US government in Washington confirmed that the presence of US troops in Iraq is agreed with Baghdad days after statements by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani that ISIS no longer poses a threat, and that his country no longer needs the international coalition. I quote from the article – “ US forces are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government to undertake the task of advising, assisting and empowering,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.

Also Al-Sudani noted in an interview with C. N. On the sidelines of his participation in the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly, the “the Iraqi and American Ministries of Foreign Affairs are arranging a date this year, to meet the invitation of the American President for us to visit Washington,” noting that “one of the most important topics to be discussed in the visit is the Strategic Framework Agreement.”

You decide if Iraq is now secure enough….. 😊 Does it meet these   guidelines of SECUIRTY imposed by the U.S.?  Why would the US agreed to pull out of Iraq is they felt it was not secure enough and Iraqis could not handle a crisis?

THE DOLLAR SAGA continues….

We also read in the news today that over the course of the dollar crisis, the government took several decisions that were intended to reduce the value of the dollar against the dinar, but these decisions failed to find solutions, and the crisis is still continuing. The economic expert, Diaa Al-Mohsen, believes that the Central Bank of Iraq is “incapable” of finding the real mechanism to control the rise in dollar prices, pointing out that “the Central Bank works with a mechanism that allows the process of evasion and currency smuggling. But we know the solution they must take and that is to make the Iraqi dinar more valuable than the US dollar. Al-Sudani months ago already told us the dinar was more valuable but the “official rate” is still 1/6 of a penny. So, until they decide to pull the plug and let it go they will continue this fight against the dollar.

As you know I often am asked by my American site manager, George if I can respond to questions asked on the blog. So I will try to answer a couple today. I want to thank those that are concerned enough to ask.

Question from workhome09: Will there be a cap limit on the dinar when exchanging? Thanks for all you do MG Godbless.

Mnt Goat Answer:

Hello workhome09:

Yes, the IMF will place the dinar initially on a managed float and I was told around a $9 cap but that was years ago and things have changed. The new peg is to six main of the developed countries with only about 65% to the USD. I wouldn’t be surprised if we witness up to $12 before they cut it off. Dr Shabibi told us in 2011 that the dinar back then could sustain a rate of $16.So go figure. They are now pumping 2/3 more oil and have agriculture exports now and also 132 tons of gold. Also lots of needed and valued industry needed minerals. The Customs & Tariffs alone, if they can get their head out of their asses, could rival the oil revenues. So go figure. They are filthy rich! 😊 I am seeing a constant rate of about USD $3.80-$4.25 range on the back screens at the bank right now.

Question from Roger:

Holiday in Iraq on Ocober 3 – iraqis will for the first time celebrate their Independence Day. Next day – October 4 is Iraq finally a member of World Trade Organization. This is hard facts that cannot be debunked.
Can Iraq still continue with the program rate of 1132 until the end of the year? Or will CBI release the new small category notes before October 4?

Mnt Goat Answer:

Hello Roger, hope you are doing fine. We are very good here in Germany except for the slump in business and the woke rules from the woke government. Germans are hard people and so we will try to survive somehow.

Thank you so much for your comments and questions. I am glad to help.

Looks like two questions so I will try to answer both. I wish we can see the RV at least within Iraq so they can exchange to the newer lower denominations by then, but I do not have a date. WE just need them to kick off the process into high gear and get doing. Get it?

This would be a grand idea for al-Sudani to do for the people on liberation day. WOW! As you know they will not give out any dates only a window when they plan to do it. I was told October for the re-education and them they should follow closely with the newer lower notes.

But remember this is not their final rate. It is only a temporary rate in-country for the citizens to make the transition to the newer lower denominations and to suck up all the 3 zero notes. Did you hear me? I said temporary even in Iraq. The dinar CAN NOT have two rates at once. Get it!!!! I repeat The dinar CAN NOT have two rates at once.

We will see a different rate on FOREX and this will then be the in-country then also once they complete the redenomination, which will be much higher. Since they do plan, as far as I am hearing, to reinstate the dinar until around January, they will use the in-country RV rate first, as I just mentioned. At that time the programs rates are done. No more 1132, it will be around 1:1 with the US dollar. Did I say $1? No! I did say around 1:1. Get it? Your question on this is confusing. Seems you still don’t comprehend the process. I hoped this helps you and others. Seems no matter how many times I go over it, many still don’t get it.

About the WTO accession, the articles told us months ago they were in the final stages and so they are all ready to go. They only want a currency that can be international prior to making the final move. They don’t need the currency to revalue only reinstate to be in the WTO, but we know they will revalue when they do reinstate it and go international. Get it? I know lots of idiot gurus tell you otherwise but you come to my blog for the TRUTH and so here it is. Read it again and carefully. I repeat, they DO NOT have to RV (no mandate for the WTO says they do) only need to reinstate for the WTO, but they are choosing to significantly revalue when they do reinstate it. So we are good…. 😊

I can tell you unequivocally, with 1000%, no doubt whatsoever, that the RV is NOT going to happen on the Independence Day of Iraq of Oct 3rd or even Oct 4th or even in the month of October in general. 😦 Sorry you were lied to again! Makes you wonder who you should listen to for your information on this investment? This is FACT and we all need to stop the rumors without anything of factual terms to back them up. No wonder so many people are confused. 

Define To Speculate: form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence or any evidence. Spreading rumors. 

Define To Make Factual Statements: an honest attempt to draw a reasonable conclusion from factual evidence.....for read more: https://mntgoatnewsusa.com/latest-mnt-goat-newsletter/

Iraqi Dinar Rv News Update Iqd / Iqd Dinar Dinar Value / Iraqi Dinar New...

Turkey and Iraq need to work together on oil policy, 29 SEPT

 Turkey and Iraq need to work together on oil policy, 29 SEPT

The relationship between Turkey and Iraq is in need of a major reset. A recent arbitral award relating to the use of a pipeline that runs from Iraq to Turkey illustrates how relations between both countries have been beset by what appear to be uncoordinated policies and a failure to capitalise on mutual interests. Conversely, recent developments also demonstrate how much work would be required to achieve a reset, which is why it is so important for both sides to reflect internally on how to engage with each other.

Commentators have long argued that there are obvious synergies between Turkey and Iraq that should be capitalised upon. Turkey is a major importer of oil and gas, both of which are plentiful in Iraq. Conversely, Iraq is famously vulnerable to climate change. Its main sources of water originate in Turkey, which has constructed a large number of upstream dams. Much of its farmland is being damaged and abandoned as a result. In addition, much of Iraq’s water infrastructure is antiquated, while Turkey has significant expertise that it can share.

Instead of capitalising on these synergies, Iraq has been unable to build its own joint strategy towards Turkey, while Turkey has sought to benefit from Iraq’s weakness since 1991. As a result of these dynamics, in 2013, Turkey negotiated an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which controls the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq, to allow the KRG to pump oil into the (pre-existing) Iraq-Turkey Pipeline and then load it onto vessels in the Turkish port of Ceyhan for export without involving the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad.

Baghdad protested that use of the pipeline was governed by an agreement between Iraq and Turkey which stipulated that the export of all oil that flowed through the pipeline should be controlled by the Ministry. It brought two separate claims before the International Chamber of Commerce. The first related to oil that was exported through the pipeline in 2014-2018 and the second relating to 2018-2022.

In March 2023, an arbitral tribunal finally issued an award in the first dispute in Iraq’s favour. The tribunal also ordered Turkey to pay Iraq approximately $2 billion in damages, and also ordered Iraq to pay around $500 million in damages to Turkey for a variety of costs and expenses. The second dispute for the period 2018-2022 is expected to lead to a similar financial award in Iraq’s favour, without any corresponding amount in Turkey’s favour.

The arbitral award was an opportunity for both parties to re-engage with each other constructively. The award should have encouraged both parties to turn the page, to re-evaluate what they had achieved through their respective strategies and build on the synergies set out above.

However, instead of reengaging with each other positively, both parties adopted unconstructive positions that complicated matters further. Surprisingly, the parties’ actions were also incoherent, which suggests internal incoherence in both Turkey and Iraq. Elements in both countries have also taken actions that undermine their own respective positions.

As soon as the award was issued, Turkey immediately moved to close the pipeline, something that was not required by the tribunal. When Iraq asked for Turkey to allow for the flow of exports to resume, Turkey responded that the closure was to ensure the pipeline’s structural integrity following the February 2023 earthquake, a concern that it had not raised before.

As if that wasn’t peculiar enough, Turkey also stated behind the scenes that it would not reopen the pipeline until a number of conditions were met, including that Iraq abandon its second claim for 2018-2022. The closure means that Iraq has lost approximately $6bn in lost profit, an amount that it is probably entitled to recover from Turkey under the ITP Agreement. At the time of writing, the pipeline remains closed.

More recently, Turkey has argued that due to interest calculations, on balance Iraq owed it a payment of $950m and not the other way around. However, Turkey has also argued in the French courts that the award should be set aside, which strongly suggests that Turkey may not be so convinced by its interest calculations after all.

For its part, Iraq publicly stated that it was keen to reach an agreement with Turkey on this matter. At the same time, however, immediately after the award was issued, in a needlessly aggressive move that possibly motivated by overeager legal counsel, Iraq moved with lightning speed to have it enforced in the US courts without reaching out to Turkey first. Turkish officials have since stated that they felt slighted by Baghdad’s action.

This history of counterproductive actions and never-ending escalations should give officials in both countries pause. Both countries should engage in some serious introspection on how they have managed their bilateral ties and how to do better in the future. For states such as Turkey and Iraq to resolve their differences through the courts and threats of further action is a travesty – particularly given the synergies mentioned above.

In addition, both sides should examine the means through which they have been communicating with each other on these issues: currently, communication is often through ad hoc meetings, as well as uncoordinated statements and legal actions by a variety of different government departments. Instead, both countries should explore ways to centralise strategy and decision making, and to create a permanent forum of exchange and negotiation (for example, through the formation of a permanent strategic committee).

Turkey and Iraq are natural allies that have much to offer each other. But to improve their own positions, both sides will have to engage in significant introspection and offer concessions. Were they to do so, it is hard to overstate how much could be achieved.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2023/09/29/turkey-and-iraq-need-to-work-together-on-oil-policy/