Evening News with MarkZ 08/18/2023

Investing Lessons from Rich Retirees, 18 AUGUST

(0:30) - Building A Strong Retirement Portfolio: How Much Do You Need?

(12:45) - Where Should You Invest For Long Term Investments? 

(25:40) - Episode Roundup: BAC, SHW, NVDA, BRK.B, VOO

            Podast@Zacks.com

 

Welcome to Episode #340 of the Value Investor Podcast.

Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio, shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal ran an article called “Here’s What a $5 Million Retirement Looks like in America.” In the article, it highlighted 5 couples and singletons who had substantial investment portfolios, over $1 million, and several had over $4 million portfolios. That’s impressive. They are rich.

How’d they do it?

None of those in the article were best selling novelists, movie stars, or professional athletes. That makes it seem even more obtainable for you and I. If they can do it, why not us?

Lessons from Rich Retirees

Those featured in the article seemingly had similar paths they followed to achieve this incredible wealth. This included,

1.       They started investing early

2.       They maxed out their 401ks

3.       They invested in equities, both individual stocks and index funds. You don’t have to get fancy.

Keep it Simple

The stocks listed in the article were big caps that you and I could also own. When Tracey has talked with her friend Ed, another rich retiree with a million-dollar stock portfolio, he too owned basic, large cap stocks, many of which paid dividends.

None were IPOs or a small cap stock that was largely unknown to most investors. These rich investors had kept it simple.

1.       Bank of America (BAC Quick QuoteBAC - Free Report)

Warren Buffett has owned Bank of America in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio for years. It’s up 108.3% over the last 10 years, but that’s underperforming the S&P 500 which is up 170% during that same time.

Bank of America pays an attractive dividend again, however, now yielding 3%, which gives long-term investors even more firepower for compounding.

Should value investors be considering a bank like Bank of America again?

2.       The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW Quick QuoteSHW - Free Report)

Sherwin-Williams rarely gets much attention on the business shows like CNBC or Fox Business. But Tracey’s friend Ed has owned it for decades. Over the last 10 years, shares of Sherwin-Williams are up 437.8% with the dividends reinvested. That’s an annualized return of 18.3%.

$10,000 invested in Sherwin-Williams in 2013 would be worth $53,780 in 2023.

Does Sherwin-Williams still have further upside?

3.       NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report)

NVIDIA was mentioned in the article as a holding by one of the rich retirees. If you had bought NVIDIA just 10 years ago, it would have gone up an astounding 11,786%.

But in 2022, shares sold off so it now has a 2-year return of “just” 117%. But NVIDIA is a leader in AI and revenue is expected to rise 59% this fiscal year to $43 billion from $26 billion last year. That’s impressive.

Is NVIDIA a good buy-and-hold stock for long-term investors?

4.       Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B Quick QuoteBRK.B - Free Report)

Berkshire Hathaway shares have been hitting new all-time highs in 2023. For investors looking for a way to track Buffett’s moves, including buy-and-hold, why not just buy shares of Berkshire’s B shares?

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway are up 218.9% over the last 10 years which beat the S&P 500 which was up just 170% during that same time. Over 20 years, Berkshire is up 600.9% versus the S&P 500 gaining 338.5%.

Should Berkshire Hathaway be on your short list?

5.       Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO Quick QuoteVOO - Free Report)

Many of the rich retirees said they owned “indexes.” They didn’t say which index but the most common one is the S&P 500. The Vanguard 500 Index (VOO Quick QuoteVOO - Free Report) is one of the most common choices for those who want to own the S&P 500 in an ETF because it has a low expense ratio of just 0.04%.

Tracey owns shares of VOO in her own personal portfolio. It’s up 14.1% year-to-date but hasn’t yet hit another new all-time high this year. Buffett is a big fan of owning the indexes, like the VOO.

Should the VOO be the first step in growing your own million-dollar portfolio?

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2138235/investing-lessons-from-rich-retirees?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID04-txt-2138235

POLL-Fed done hiking; slim majority of economists say no rate cut through March, 18 AUGUST

 By Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh

BENGALURU, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters, and a slight majority now expect the central bank to wait at least through end-March before cutting them.

With the world's largest economy defying nearly every negative forecast, and unemployment around a more than five-decade low, the median probability of a recession within a year fell to 40%, its first time below 50% since September 2022.

A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting, in line with market pricing. A roughly 80% majority expect no further rate rises this year.

That contrasts with minutes from policymakers' recent deliberations, showing a split on whether one more rise might be required. After raising rates by 25 basis points last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept options open for whether there would be a hike or a pause at the September meeting.

"Chair Powell says that decision will come down to upcoming data on growth and inflation, which we suspect will show enough signs of moderation to dissuade further rate hikes," noted Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"Still, a move to lower the current target range of 5.25%-5.50% is unlikely to begin until about June 2024 given the expected sluggish path of inflation back to the target."

The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0% following 11 interest rate hikes from near-zero in early 2022. But it is not expected to fall to the 2% target until at least 2025, according to the poll.

Greater confidence the economy may skirt a major downturn has led to growing expectations rates will stay higher for longer, leading to convulsions in bond markets in recent days. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note  yield is now only a few basis points off its cycle high in October.

Indeed, 23 poll respondents said rates will rise once more this year, with two saying twice more, to 5.75-6.00%.

While a majority among 95 economists who have forecasts through mid-2024 say rates will fall at least once by then, there is no majority for the timing of the first cut.

Just over half, 48 of 95, said the Fed will hold off cutting rates through end-March, with another 45, or 47%, saying its first cut will come in Q1. The other two still expect a cut in the fourth quarter of this year.

As recently as June, over a three-quarters majority of economists polled said the Fed would start by end-March.

Another 33 respondents, roughly 35%, forecast the Fed will go for its first rate cut in Q2, leaving 79 of 95, or 83% expecting at least one rate cut by mid-2024.

SHELTER COSTS TO COME DOWN

Much will depend on how quickly inflation will fall in the last stretch from 3.0% currently on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index to the Fed's 2% target.

Shelter costs - which account for around a third of the consumer price index (CPI) basket and are one of the main current drivers of inflation - will fall over the rest of the year, said nearly three-quarters of economists, 23 of 31.

That would help price pressures decline over the coming months, making the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation - the real interest rate - more restrictive if held unchanged.

Adjusting that real rate of interest would most likely be the reason for a rate reduction from the Federal Open Market Committee next year rather than a first move toward stimulus, said 21 of 32 economists in a reply to another question on what will prompt the first rate cut.

"We have long seen a high threshold for cutting because Fed officials will want to minimize the risk they could regret cutting if inflation stays too high," said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

"The cuts in our forecast are driven by this desire to normalize the funds rate from a restrictive level once inflation is closer to target, not by a recession."

Reuters poll - U.S. recession probability https://tmsnrt.rs/3YIogKc

(Reporting by Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Pranoy Krishna; Editing by Ross Finley and Sharon Singleton)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-fed-done-hiking-slim-majority-of-economists-say-no-rate-cut-through-march

BRUCE'S BIG CALL, 18 AUGUST

 Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 8-17-23   REPLAY LINK   Intel Begins   1:16:16

https://www.freeconferencecallhd.com/wall/recorded_audio?audioRecordingUrl=https%3A%2F%2Frs0002.freeconferencecall.com%2Fstorage%2FsgetHD%2FHsCgW%2FHSjv

Welcome, everybody to the big call tonight - It is Thursday, August 17th and you're listening to the big call - thanks for listening all over the globe. I was informed that we would be trying to reach 197 countries tonight and looking for about 26 million listeners in those international areas and say what difference does it make and why do I bring that up? It's to let you guys know that that is our community of currency holders out there. globally. That's what the call is directed to. And it's literally targeted to those people who have currencies just like you do. And I love that and it was a big surprise when I found that out. But I really think our community which you're a part of is big call universe is bigger than we thought it was. And so that's really cool. You're not alone. And even though sometimes, you might feel alone in this, and you can't talk to your spouse like they're not a believer, you can't talk to your other friends. you've lost friends over this. I get. I've been in it 19 years. I understand everything that everybody's gone through. But let me just say this - I'm excited that the community is larger than we thought - and that big call is getting out to so many people around the globe Okeydoke Well, here we go and let’s see how much I can recall to bring out to you guys tonight because there is a lot that we learned yesterday and a few tuneups and touch ups that we got today, which are interesting. Let's sort of create our own timeline tonight. Starting with today or tomorrow, that's Thursday or Friday - The bondholders are to receive brand new NDAs those are to go out either today or tomorrow. My gut feeling is probably tomorrow. So they get those. They have to return those digitally and sign those digitally, or have their paymaster also co sign those NDA returns back to let's call it headquarters, which would be Wells Fargo. And those returns by the bond sellers - let’s call them - and intermediaries have to get back by tomorrow night – Friday night , then the process and you'll see why this applies to us in a minute - and these are tier three bondholders - then they're to receive their emails Saturday from the bond pay masters that will give them access to funds on Monday ot Tuesday, this coming week. That's the process that they're in. A lot is going to happen next week starting really over the weekend. So let's comment about the weekend first, to go all the way to Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday 22nd 23rd 24th of August - That as you guys know are the dates for the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Very important, very big. At least 93 countries probably more that have ascribed to the BRICS consortium and that each country as a sovereign country has their own gold backed currency – and already has it. Let me put it this way - for membership into the BRICS - Let's call it a consortium. For membership into it they need to have an asset backed actually gold for the most part - Gold back currency of their own. Okay, so that's been going on. And every time we turn around the number of countries gets larger. Today, I understood that that would represent approximately 85 to 88% of the countries around the world would be part of the BRICS. Remember the BRICS started with Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, B R I C S. And to those initial original five countries, we've added quite a few and we're somewhere up around - Gosh, 96 and probably more by the time of this show tonight. All right - So you've got that set up. And I told you guys Tuesday night, that that appears to be a timeline where we need to get everything that we're doing – done in accordance with if not before the BRICS summit begins Tuesday. Alright let’s back up on our timeline. We were here through the weekend and made it to Saturday. And now we have information that says that President Trump will be receiving international let's call them guests from several countries. Russia, China, Turkey Indonesia, Iraq, at least five or six countries coming to the conclusion a delegation if you will, small delegations with lot of security. He'll be meeting with these leaders over the weekend. And that's a really big deal. I wish I could give you more information about that. But suffice it to say that this is all happening prior to Monday, which is a very big day for the world. I think what we're going to see from President Trump is three to five announcements made by him possibly in conjunction with so many other leaders that don't know that I'm only putting that out there as a possibility. But we're gonna have I believe that announcement one of the five announcements if I'd get made that major announcements, one that we've been looking for for a long time is about NESARA. Okay, NESARA to be announced sometime Monday. The next announcement would be an announcement about our new asset backed currency known as the USN. United States news, what that came from USN. We also use the term United States Treasury note USTN to designate our banknotes, our currency So that announcement is supposed to come out with an announcement about the money that we have now, the Fiat dollars, it's not backed by any real assets – only the full faith and credit of the US government - that is going away. It's already gone away. Pretty much fully internationally except for Canada - US and Mexico. still usable here. And I believe we'll be able to use it in the United States, if not North America, which is Canada, US and Mexico - its considered North America, right. So it will be used in the United States for another three months. I don't know when the cutoff date will be. So if you have tons of USD fiat currency stashed in your mattress, and cans out buried in the yard, you might want to consider spending it or turning it in for the new currency. So our new USN bank notes we hear from our bank sources will go out next week. I don't know if it'll make it Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday when it comes out. But I think you know, there already have already been at the redemption centers for months and months. I think some have had it for well over a year because we've heard about when they first got there. The banks if they have them already, which I think a lot of them do, like the tier one bank to they'll have them in the vaults, probably already in teller drawers in the vaults and then they'll use those when they're told to to bring those out for us - or for the public. So those two announcements dealing with NESARA and the USN and President Trump on Monday. Now, three, possibly three more announcements would be political announcements, but I don't know exactly what they're going to be about. I have an idea what I hope they're about we'll see what that looks like. Now hold on this come out. It would seem to me that something is vitally important as NESARA, and really, in turn, GESARA for the global economic - Okay, those should come out approximately the same time. And NESARA something that important as well as our new money, our new currency - We already have the digital USN going and trading and have for a little while, but this will bring our new folding money if you will, our bank notes out - and we should be able to know about that on Monday and then the political announcements would follow that, I think, but five, three to five announcements on Monday by President Trump. Now how would they bring those out? I believe they would have to use something that would allow all of mainstream television and radio media to cover it. Well, a lot of the mainstream media has not really been up to speed as far as reporting the truth of things as you guys know. And I believe, remember, we've got the emergency broadcast service, EBS, they've got the emergency alert service - EAS and we have the new EWS - emergency wireless service and by the way the Emergency Broadcast System and emergency alert system. It's used our phones for a number of things. So that’s happening - we have that companies are happening in terms of the EWS happening now. In other words, Monday, Tuesday is coming up hold on one second. Okay. Sorry there's sort of blank space here. But I did get a call and it was sort of pertinent to what I'm saying about political announcements that we're looking forward to Now I would not be surprised if they use the EWS emergency wireless system, or EBS or EAS all of them to get this news out and if mainstream media doesn't come to the party on this and say, say it accurately. I'm sure our military is ready to take those networks over and make sure that the news is accurate. I also thimk that we could have some form of early disclosure coming out that would come out behind these announcements. Maybe not the same day, maybe not Tuesday, or Wednesday might come in fairly, fairly. shortly. And I'm excited about this week because what we're hearing is that after those announcements, and the interesting thing about this is generally speaking, when President Trump announced something, it had already taken place. That may be the case with the USN and bank notes - our currency in the banks. they could be there ready to go Monday. But it might be that they'll go after the announcement is actually made on Monday. So we'll see how that goes - those announcements could trigger some things for us - could it trigger the emails that we are to receive to set our appointments for our exchanges, its possible on Monday, but I'm hearing it's more likely Tuesday. We'll get those emails with the 800 number set our appointment and go in on Tuesday evening, or Wednesday for our exchanges and redemption of zim. So we're in in tier four. we're in a tuesday Wednesday Motif right now, that appears to be where we are. Now, on the 22nd which is Tuesday. There was a lot that is going to start. There's a lot of in there's so much and some of it's a little sensitive that I can't quite bring it out but be prepared for the possibility, a lot of things happening, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, like I said, I think we should get notified Tuesday and we should start exchanges on Wednesday, and then take off from there. I know that we have a really good situation with the rates for those of us who might have Zim They have a fixed rate that they plan to offer us on our dinar It's very good very high. There's also have the planned rate to offer us if we assume for any dong We also have and the rest of it is just going to be whatever the front Banks screens are. Okay, let's go back to our timeline. What is Iraq going to do - when are they going to maybe bring out their new rate, print it in the gazette - and all of that on Sunday? We believe the Prime Minister is here. Could he make the announcement from here or would that new rate and the opening of the budget and the HCl law which has been passed and needs to be implemented and so on. Would that be announced here or would that come out on Sunday or Wednesday? We don't know the answer to that yet. It could be Sunday, or it could which is the first business day remember that? In the Middle East - It's Sundays a first business day and then Wednesday is another major day because that's when usually the printed version. Okay, so I am back and I need to make one change here in my little system and one moment let me see here. Okay. Okay, the other thing that I want to say Intel wise is this is this is a very important week for us. I think we're going to see major changes in our stock exchange by Tuesday or Wednesday. I think as they transition to the USN, and there'll be some changes in place there. We have heard that we will be on an entirely new financial system, which is the global financial system of the of the of the world and everything that is coming down that we've been looking for is taking place and should be starting Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday because this is these are the dates that the BRICS summit is, is underway, those three days. And these some meetings, as I mentioned, are taking place primary to or preliminary meetings before the BRICS summit, but it's going to be a global phenomenon. And I believe we're gonna get really good information that come out from these announcements. And, and I really think we're starting really starting afresh this coming week. So I wanted to say that get that out to you. Now I wanted to just thank everybody for listening to the call tonight. Wherever you are around the globe. So thank you everybody for listening. This is looking very solid for next week. Let's see what happens. Let's pay close attention to what happens on Monday for announcements and then we'll take it from there. All right, everybody, have a great weekend.

DINARLAND UPDATE, 18 AUGUST

MarkZ

[via PDK]

I believe it will stay quiet until we cross the finish line…But, I have been assured Iraq plans to finish in the month of August. And bankers are still looking at around the 20th…I hope that is accurate. And yes…I am an optimist.

”Iraq possesses  132 tons of gold reserves”

They are continuing to stock up. I believe they are way closer than they are telling us.

Comment: Many still think Iraq will float.

MarkZ:  My sources still believe straight to contract rates for us…

MilitiaMan (KTFA)

What are we looking for?  For them to spend the money [from the budget].  If they haven’t spent the money they don’t have it yet. 

Their job  [parliament, GOI, CBI]  is not to tell you, ‘We’re going to change the exchange rate from X to X tomorrow.‘  They’re not going to do that.

Bruce (The Big Call)

[via WiserNow]

…we’re sort of that day by day situation where we’ve been told – we’re minutes away – this is getting ready to go… things are really happening…I think the next two to three days we’re going to be really significant if we go this week… Iraq is still saying they’re going to put out a new rate and open their budget and pull it out  in their gazette…they might wait until Saturday or it could be printed in a special edition…of the Gazette…and…the so called HCL the hydrocarbon law the oil and gas law… which has been passed a long time ago – would be implemented with the new rate… We’ll see what happens.

 

Iraqi Dinar🔥Fixed Exchange Rate Decided Today $4.87 USD 2023 iraqi dinar...

WE WILL NOT PRINT DINARS EXCEPT UNDER CONDITIONS, 18 AUGUST

 WE WILL NOT PRINT DINARS EXCEPT UNDER CONDITIONS

Indomie is beyond need and fraudulent Iraqis… A detailed presentation of Al-Alaq’s statements about the dollar crisis

The Governor of the Central Bank, Ali Al-Alaq, presented, on Wednesday, a detailed presentation on the exchange rate crisis, and controlling the critical balance between dollar supply and demand for it. “Finance we will not print dinars except under conditions.”

Al-Alaq said, in the presence of a number of representatives of media institutions, that international financial agencies have investigated “strange imports,” including large quantities of indomie, even the US Federal Bank asked about the fact that “Iraqis love indomie so much.”

Al-Alaq ruled out the central bank’s resort to printing the dinar to secure the budget’s need, “unless we get an equivalent foreign currency.”

-----

The international coalition reveals the reason for the movement of its military forces in Iraq

Baghdad - Iraq Today:

The international coalition to fight ISIS revealed the reasons for the movements of its forces inside and outside Iraq, noting that they are "standard and routine operations."

"Coalition service members from the Tenth Mountain Division have replaced service members from the Ohio State National Guard," the coalition said in a statement.

"This operation is part of the planned rotational replacement of troops in support of CJTF-Operation Inherent Resolve over the past month," he said.

The coalition noted that the official transfer of responsibility ceremony at Erbil Air Base "took place on August 15, 2023," noting that "in order to redeploy the unit whose scheduled deployment period expires, service personnel in the unit to be replaced must be ready and ready to take charge."

The replacement "includes those equipment belonging to the unit", it said.

These operations are "normative and routine, conducted in a deliberate, planned and carefully coordinated manner with security partners", the coalition said.

"During the replacement and rotation of these forces, the movements of troops, vehicles and equipment inside and outside Iraq take place," the statement said, adding that "these logistical movements are necessary to support the coalition forces."

The Coalition stressed that CJTF-Operation Inherent Resolve "will remain committed to achieving the enduring defeat of Daesh and will continue to advise, assist and empower partner forces through routine disruption and rotation operations."