JUDY NOTE, 6 AUGUST

 Judy Note: Word has been received that the Iraqi Parliament had received the new budget with the new Iraqi Dinar Rate in it and planned that new rate would be implemented this week; the Iraqi Dinar would be revalued at a 1:1 with the USD and then begin trading up on the Forex on Wed. 9 Aug – the same date  that 25,000 US Navy and Marines, six Maritime Commands and seven Fleets would begin a large scale exercise on Global conflict that covered 22 Time Zones across the world – and would end on Fri. 18 Aug.

The next day after the Dinar revalued on Thurs. 10 Aug. a “major figure will leave the stage.”

Last Friday the BRICS nations set the Back Wall for the RV at Sat. 12 Aug.

On the Banking side, Bank of America was closing US branches in August. Banks had until Sun. 6 Aug. to synch up with the Central Bank of Iraq and it’s new Iraqi Dinar Rate; Wells Fargo customers were reporting that their deposits were disappearing from their accounts, plus on Mon. 7 Aug. the World’s largest bank, the United Bank of Switzerland American Group, was making sweeping changes to restructure the bank.

"STATUS OF THE RV" BY IQD IRAQ & VND VIETNAM, 5 AUGUST

 STATUS OF THE RV

So, on Monday Representative Baqir Al-Saadi expected that the dollar exchange rate against the dinar will continue to decline in the coming days.

Al-Saadi said, that common external-internal factors were behind the rise in the exchange rates of the dollar in the parallel market in Iraq in recent weeks, in a way that raised public concern.

In today’s news the CBI tells us that on Thursday (August 3, 2023), the Central Bank of Iraq revealed new decisions that will be issued next week to reduce the price of the dollar in Iraq to be continued.

We know this is the fourth time the CBI told us they were implementing a package of currency reforms.

On Thursday, the Central Bank identified three categories of exchange companies for selling the dollar to travelers, and while it revealed a proposal regarding the entry of imported goods through the border crossings, it indicated that there are new decisions that will be issued next week that may contribute to lowering the price of the dollar.

This week I had an interesting conversation with my CBI contact in Iraq.

I was told to expect yet another “official” rate change of the dinar from the 1320 rate.

I was told the new measures were trying to get as close to 1000 rate as possible.

I asked about a more specific number, but I could not get a commitment on the actual range.

However, I was told that the measures to be taken in the coming weeks should move the dinar within this range.

What is the plan once this new rate range is met?

I was told that the CBI could then go ahead with the project to delete the zeros.

We know that when this new rate is rolled out the CBI will then drop three zeros from the currency.

We need to print more IQD I hope will be smaller category of currency BY NADER FROM MID EAST

The Iraq CBI - The Iraq GOI - The Iraq Exchange Rate

"IRAQI PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTE DISCUSSING SOARING DOLLAR EXHANGE RATE WITH PRIME MINISTER", 5 AUGUST

Iraqi Parliamentary Finance Committee to Discuss Soaring Dollar Exchange Rate with Prime Minister

Shafaq News/ The Parliamentary Finance Committee of Iraq is set to hold an imminent meeting with Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani to discuss the reasons behind the escalating exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the measures the government is taking to address this crisis, a committee member disclosed on Saturday.

"The Parliamentary Finance Committee had hosted a meeting with the Governor of the Central Bank, Ali al-Allaq, to deliberate the causes behind the steep rise in the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar in the market and the procedures and decisions taken by the Central Bank to handle the crisis," Lawmaker Yehya al-Mohammadi told Shafaq News Agency. 

"The committee is set to meet with Prime Minister Mohammad al-Sudani to examine the government's measures and decisions it made to resolve the dollar crisis," he added. 

Al-Mohammadi said that "the committee will also host officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Tax Department, Customs, and leaders from security agencies to discuss their measures to curb the smuggling of foreign currency abroad."

https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq-News/Iraqi-Parliamentary-Finance-Committee-to-Discuss-Soaring-Dollar-Exchange-Rate-with-Prime-Minister

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Iraq and Kuwait seek to resolve disputes over maritime border and oilfields

Iraq and Kuwait pledged on Sunday to work towards resolving issues dating back to Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion of the oil-rich country.

Top of the agenda at a meeting in Baghdad were the disputes over the maritime border demarcation and joint oilfields.

“We discussed the pending issues between the two sides and we also discussed ways to protect the good relations between the two countries and develop them,” Iraqi Foreign Minster Fuad Hussein said at a joint press conference with Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Salem Abdullah Al Jaber Al Sabah.

The technical-legal committee on the maritime border will meet in Baghdad on August 14, followed by a delegation visit from Kuwaiti Oil Minister Saad Al Barrak on September 10.

“There were extensive discussions on the [maritime border] issue and both sides expressed their opinions and agreed to continue discussions,” Mr Hussein said.

A supreme committee linked to Iraqi Foreign Ministry will lead the discussions and supervise all other subcommittees, he added.

Sheikh Salem hailed Sunday's discussions as “very fruitful, reflecting the deepness of the strong bilateral relations between our countries”.

“We are determined to work hand-in-hand to develop these relations and to develop and push them to new horizons,” he said.

Both countries realised the importance of solving the issues and “on top of them the issue of ending the maritime border demarcation”, he said.

The land border between the two neighbours was demarcated by the UN after the Iraqi army was pushed out of Kuwait. But the maritime boundary was left for the two sides to resolve.

Since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam, both countries have been meeting to resolve this and several other issues, with little progress made.

Iraqi fishermen have complained of harassment by Kuwaiti fishermen, alleging that they do not respect maritime boundaries, particularly regarding navigation in the Khor Abdullah, a waterway that separates Iraq from Kuwait and is Iraq's gateway to the Gulf.

Iraq is constructing the multi-billion dollar Grand Port of Al Faw on Khor Abdullah, which at in the heart of the country's ambitious plan to connect Asia to Europe through rail and road networks that traverse Turkey.

Early last year, Iraq paid its last war reparations to Kuwait, settling the $52.4 billion of claims made for damage inflicted during the 1990 invasion.

Both ministers also discussed the issue of Kuwaiti nationals who had gone missing during the invasion, Kuwaiti-owned properties in the southern province of Basra, fishing, the fight against drugs trafficking and the mutual facilitation of visits by Iraqi and Kuwaiti citizens.

To boost trade, the Kuwaiti minister announced the opening a of commercial attache office at the Kuwaiti consulate in Basra.

Iraqi Minister of Transport Razzaq Al Saadawi and Basra Governor Asaad Al Eidani, as well as representatives from the Oil Ministry, attended the meeting.

Kuwait is also in dispute with Iran over their maritime border and Al Durra offshore gasfield in the Arabian Gulf.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia say they have “exclusive rights” to Al Durra and called on Iran to validate its claim by first demarcating its own maritime borders.

Iran previously claimed a stake in the field and described a Kuwaiti-Saudi agreement signed last year to develop the field as “illegal”.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iraq/2023/07/30/iraq-and-kuwait-seek-to-resolve-disputes-over-maritime-border-and-oilfields/

"Interest Rate Hedge ETFs on the Rise Again", 5 AUGUST

 Interest rate hedge ETFs are once again rising, especially after the Fed’s 11th rate hike. The central bank, in its latest meeting, raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled the possibility of further increases ahead (read: ETFs to Gain as Fed Raises Rates to a 22-Year High).

The rate hike brings the benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, to 5.25-5.50%, the highest level since March 2001. “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace," the Fed said in its statement. "Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated." Although inflation has dropped from the peak of 9.1%, it has a long way to go to meet the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

The American economy surprisingly picked up steam in the second quarter, thanks to resilience among consumers and businesses in the face of high interest rates. This is especially true as the GDP grew 2.4% annually from 2% growth in the first quarter.

Additionally, the surge in yields contributed to the rally in these ETFs. Treasury yields spiked to the highs of 2023 in the Aug 2 trading session, buoyed by plans of government debt issuance and signs of the labor market’s enduring strength. The 10-year yields topped 4.12%, marking the highest level since November 2022, while 30-year yields reached their highest level in nearly nine months to about 4.2% (read: Inverse Treasury ETFs Spike as Yields Hit 2023 Highs).

Higher Rates: Pros and Cons

The increase in interest rates has made borrowing expensive, pushed up the cost of buying a new car or house, increased the cost of carrying credit card debt and thus slowed down the economic growth. This will further boost the U.S. dollar against the basket of other currencies, thereby leaving a huge impact on commodity-linked investments. Thus, a rising-rate environment will hurt a number of segments.

In particular, high dividend-paying sectors such as utilities and real estate would be the worst hit, given their higher sensitivity to rising interest rates. Additionally, securities in capital-intensive sectors like telecom would also be impacted by higher rates. However, higher interest rates usually indicate a healthy economy, leading to greater consumer power and increased IT spending. This combination of factors will result in increased industrial activity and a pickup in consumer demand.

This has compelled investors to flock to the interest rate hedge ETFs to protect themselves from the rising rate environment. We have highlighted a few of them:

Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF (RRH)

Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF is a multi-asset ETF that seeks to generate capital appreciation during periods of rising long-term interest rates, specifically interest rates, with maturities of five years or longer. It is an actively managed fund and seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily by investing in a combination of U.S. Treasury securities; forwards, futures or options on various currencies; long and short positions on the short and long-end of the Treasury or swap yield curve via futures, swaps, forwards and other over-the-counter derivatives; long and short positions on equity indexes and investment companies, including ETFs; and commodity futures and options.

Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF has accumulated $7.1 million in its asset base and charges 85 bps in annual fees. It trades in an average daily volume of 29,000 shares and has gained 8.7% in a month.

Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX)

Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF is the first ETF providing a simple, direct and transparent interest rate hedge. It seeks to provide a hedge against a sharp increase in long-term interest rates and benefit from market stress when fixed-income volatility increases while providing the potential for income.

Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF holds a large position in over-the-counter interest rate options intended to provide a direct and transparent convex exposure to large upward moves in interest rates and interest rate volatility. It invests in long-dated put options on 20-year US Treasury bonds to offer the most liquid and the most cost-efficient way of getting interest rate protection. PFIX has accumulated $204.3 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 117,000 shares. It charges 50 bps in annual fees and has surged 15% in a month.

Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF (RATE)

Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF is an actively managed fund that seeks to provide a hedge against sharp increases in long-term U.S. interest rates and is expected to benefit during periods of market stress when interest rate volatility is elevated. It seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily by investing in long interest rate swap options and long positions in short-term U.S. Treasury securities (read: Rates To Remain Higher For Longer? ETFs to Hedge the Trend).

Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF has amassed $3.3 million in its asset base and trades in average daily volume of 1,000 shares. It charges 47 bps in fees per year and has gained 5.3% in a month.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/interest-rate-hedge-etfs-on-the-rise-again

"WHAT IS ARTICLE 304?", DINAR IRAQ AND DONG VIETNAM, 5 AUGUST

 What is Article 304? 

To protect the dinar… Since when do you protect toilet paper? 

Since when do you protect used toilet paper that’s already been flushed down the toilet? Never. You’re going to release 304 right now? What for? Have you done it the years before? No. 

Have you done it decades before? No…Sudani is arresting people left and right, backwards and forwards, up and down…because he’s not messing around anymore with those that are delaying the monetary reform.

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Parliamentary movement and political emphasis on the need for the oil and gas law to reach agreement between the various parties

8-4-2023

Parliamentary movement and political emphasis on the need for the oil and gas law to reach agreement between the various partiesInformation / Baghdad…

Many political parties affirm their insistence on passing the oil and gas law in order to regulate the relationship between the center and the region in the oil file, as well as to ensure that each province receives its entitlements and to ensure a fair distribution of natural resources, at a time when those parties hinted at the need to move Towards finding a consensual political formula before proceeding with the legislation of this law, so that it does not provide benefit to one party over the other, especially since the region has an opinion about the law and has previously sought to make oil export through it to ensure that it obtains revenues, which may be a stumbling block in negotiating between Baghdad and Erbil over the law .

A member of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Ali Al-Zubaidi, told Al-Maalouma, “The government seeks that the oil and gas law be in the interest of all of Iraq and everyone benefits from it without benefiting one province over another, including the provinces of the Kurdistan region, as there are attempts by Kurdistan to impose control on some The lands of Kirkuk,” pointing out that “the region’s authorities took control of some oil wells in Kirkuk during the period of the terrorist ISIS and continued to obtain their wealth, despite their ownership of the federal government, and therefore the oil and gas law and in order for it to be completed and passed, it needs some time in order to mature it politically And then proceed to put it to Parliament and vote on it.”

On the other hand, the representative of the State of Law Coalition, Jassem Al-Alawi, told Al-Maaloma, that “there is an urgent need to proceed with the oil and gas law, as there are many demands within Parliament to complete the law and put it before the House of Representatives for the purpose of discussion and legislation,” explaining that “there are many moves Towards approving the aforementioned law, due to its importance in distributing wealth equally among all Iraqis without granting privileges to one province over the other, since the law, if put to a vote in parliament, will eliminate the differences and dire damages that threaten the political process, and therefore there is a serious movement within Parliament To put the oil and gas law to a vote in one of the council sessions.

On the other hand, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Ahmed Al-Harki confirmed, in an interview with the information agency, that “the meeting was held in the presence of the Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, and the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Oil, in addition to a delegation from the Ministry of Natural Resources from the Kurdistan Regional Government. It comes from among the important political and technical meetings, and these dialogues pave the way for the drafting of an important and good law that satisfies all parties.” state to pass the law.

almaalomah.me

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An economist warns of the “extremely dangerous” paragraph in the recent statement of the Central Bank

2023-08-04 03:58

An economist warns of the extremely dangerous paragraph in the recent statement of the Central BankShafaq News/ The economist, Shawan Al-Zangana, warned, on Friday, against limiting merchants’ remittances in hard currency, represented in US dollars, through the electronic platforms of the Central Bank of Iraq, saying that this measure will lead to stopping the entry of imported goods into the markets in the country.

Commenting on the statement issued yesterday, Thursday, by the Central Bank regarding dealing in dollars and the exchange rate, the expert told Shafaq News agency, “It contains a very dangerous and sensitive paragraph. The Central Bank, as a treatment for the dollar crisis, in his belief, will oblige merchants to prove that their transfers have been made through the platform, If their goods enter Iraq through customs, and this clearly means that merchants will not be able to import their goods except through the platform, as the remittance document will have to be shown through the platform in all customs clearances.

He added, “If this decision is implemented in its proper form, without facilitating transfers through the platform for all merchants, the supply chains through customs and the entry of goods will stop, until the procedures are amended, and this means that imports will stop, and all goods will be scarce in the local markets, and thus prices will rise.” And the pace of inflation escalated, and a large number of merchants were affected, not to mention the citizen’s loss of his purchasing power.”

Al-Zangana also warned the federal government and the Central Bank of Iraq against the immediate implementation of this decision, in this abstract form, without preparing the ground and enabling all merchants to use the platform properly and smoothly, and facilitate its procedures, including delaying the presentation of the transfer document until after the entry of goods. within a certain period of time.”

He pointed out that “the government measures, all central bank procedures, are flimsy cartoon measures that do not help solve the monetary crisis, but on the contrary, they are measures that aggravate the problem and help smuggling.”

The economist called on all chambers of commerce, federations of businessmen, civil organizations, research institutions, and economists to organize seminars in this regard, to actively contribute to resolving the monetary crisis, and to propose plans and recommendations that contribute to legalizing dealing in hard currency, and ending the crimes of speculation and smuggling. .

He also called for moving quickly before it is too late, because the Iraqi financial administration lacks sound vision, suffers from confusion in its compass, and does not put its hand on the wound.

Yesterday, Thursday, the administration of the Central Bank of Iraq considered what is being traded in the markets of the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar by speculators as “illegal”, calling for the need for all parties to join forces to achieve stability in the exchange rate, especially since Iraq possesses sufficient foreign reserves to meet legitimate needs. .

The administration said in a statement that the application of the system of foreign transfers, documentary credits and cash sale of foreign currency involves achieving economic, regulatory and legal goals, including the following:

Enhancing anti-money laundering and terrorist financing measures, and preventing the risks of local and international sanctions from all relevant parties.

Bringing Iraq’s imports into channels that ensure the safety and transparency of operations, and providing important databases and information for planning, organizing and control purposes.

Achieving additional revenues for the state by subjecting all imports to procedures for comprehensive registration of their details and the resulting fees.

Gaining the trust of accredited international banks, which expands the network of relations between the local and foreign banking sector, and increases the number of Iraqi bank correspondents.

Closing the outlets for illegal foreign transfers, besieging the proceeds of crime and corruption, and preventing them from finding a way to escape abroad.

Not charging imported goods with the exchange rate difference resulting from paying a higher price when buying them at the unofficial rate on the black market, which leads to higher prices and a negative impact on the purchasing power of citizens.

The groups that buy the dollar from the market and create an opportunity for speculators and beneficiaries to trade an unofficial exchange rate are:

Importers of merchants who do not follow the fundamental methods of external transfers (remittances and documentary credits) via the electronic platform, which is available to them at the official price, through attempts to collect cash dollars that are exclusively for citizens’ travel from the market, or by using electronic payment cards designated to pay citizens’ purchases and expenses abroad. , or for personal transfers for legitimate purposes.

Importers of prohibited or narcotic substances such as drug dealers and others, or of materials that do not pass through the official border crossings, to escape the requirements of the law or customs, such as importers of cigarettes and some importers of precision instruments, so they go to the market to buy dollars that are not allocated to them to pay their bills.

The category that generates revenues from the proceeds of crimes, such as bribes, thefts, kidnapping, extortion, selling contraband, etc., and they transfer them abroad to hide them.

Citizens who pay for their purchases of goods and services inside Iraq in dollars, which prompts them to buy dollars from the market, and since there is no allocation from the central bank’s sales of dollars for this purpose, their purchase is from a share allocated for other purposes, especially travel.

In order to address the aforementioned phenomena, and reduce the phenomenon of the illegal market, and an exchange rate higher than the prescribed one, work is being done with the government and the relevant authorities to take the following measures:

Merchants and importers use the prescribed channel for that, via the electronic platform, to achieve the objectives of this system and prevent the use of cash dollars in the market for other than its purposes, and this requires obligating this category to provide evidence that the amount of their imports has been duly transferred when their goods enter Iraq at the official border crossings.

Stimulating and supporting categories of merchants to enter the electronic platform by simplifying procedures, especially tax ones, defining their ceilings in advance according to categories, and depositing them in the account of the General Tax Authority through its bank accounts.

Tightening control over the official border crossings and closing unofficial ones, coordinating between the federal government and the regional government regarding the organization and unification of entry procedures for goods and the fees imposed on them, and preventing the entry of prohibited and legally prohibited materials.

The competent authorities undertake the strict application of Cabinet Resolution No. (23026) for the year 2023, which includes limiting the sale and purchase of goods and services in Iraqi dinars inside Iraq.

shafaq.com