Thursday, August 3, 2023
"US DOLLAR DECLINES AGAINTS IQD", 3 AUGUST
US Dollar Declines Against Iraqi Dinar in Baghdad and Erbil Markets
Shafaq News/ On Thursday, the US exchange rates decreased against the Iraqi dinar in the markets of Baghdad, and Erbil.
According to a report by Shafaq News agency, the central Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges in Baghdad recorded this morning, an exchange rate of 149,900 dinars against 100 dollars, while yesterday, Wednesday, prices recorded 151,500 dinars.
As for the dollar prices in exchange shops in the local markets in Baghdad, the selling price reached 151,000 dinars, while the purchase price recorded 149,000 dinars for 100 dollars.
In Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, the stock market, the selling price reached 151,100 dinars, and the purchase price was 151,050 dinars for 100 dollars.
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-Declines-Against-Iraqi-Dinar-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-Markets-6
----
World Bank Expresses Concerns Over Decline of Iraqi Economy, Oil Dependence, and Shrinking Cash Reserves
Shafaq News/ The World Bank has voiced its apprehensions regarding the Iraqi economy, which relies heavily on oil exports, while cautioning about the declining cash reserves in the nation.
According to a report released by the World Bank, the Iraqi economy continues to recover, driven by the surge in oil prices, after being severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. However, the non-oil sectors are still grappling with recessionary pressures.
Despite achieving record oil revenues and obtaining the much-awaited approval of the new fiscal budget, Iraq is at risk of missing a critical opportunity to undertake urgent and long-awaited reforms essential for boosting private sector growth and generating millions of jobs over the next decade, the World Bank stated.
According to a report of the World Bank's Iraq Economic Monitor, for the spring and summer of 2023, the real GDP growth had surged significantly to 7% in 2022, driven by the booming oil sector. Subsequently, it declined to 2.6% annually in the first quarter of 2023. In early 2023, consumer price inflation also rose due to the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar in the parallel market.
The favorable oil market dynamics in the initial nine months of 2022 had elevated total reserves, excluding gold, to an unprecedented $89 billion. However, this trend slowed down in early 2023.
The report emphasized that Iraq's development model, primarily reliant on oil, would face severe challenges without the implementation of structural reforms. It predicted an overall GDP contraction of 1.1% in 2023, mainly driven by an expected 4.4% contraction in oil GDP, following the OPEC+ production quotas agreed for this year.
Jean-Christophe Carret, the World Bank Country Director for the Middle East Department (Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria), stated, "Iraq is witnessing a strong recovery after many years of turmoil. However, it cannot solely rely on oil windfalls for short-term recovery." He further emphasized that in the absence of high-level political commitment to the necessary reforms, Iraq faces the risk of depleting its reserves at an accelerated pace and regressing to square one in a short period.
He called for urgent measures to expedite the diversification of economic activity and address existing fragility factors while tackling pressing climate-related challenges to secure the long-term well-being of the Iraqi people.
This particular chapter of the report focuses on the Iraqi financial sector. It concludes that the lack of capital in dominant state-owned banks and the weakness of the private commercial banking sector are significant impediments to economic diversification.
The report emphasizes the importance of banking sector reforms and the promotion of digital financial services to enhance financial intermediation activities and foster financial inclusion, transforming the financial sector into a catalyst for economic diversification.
"Buy and Hold or Active Investing: Which Is Better for New Investors?", 3 AUGUST
The generation of investors getting started today has some big advantages over those of us who began our journey decades ago. They can buy and sell without incurring fees that equate to a big percentage of their investable cash, for one thing, and they also have ready access to a wealth of information, from raw data to advice and opinions. That, however, is a bit of a double edged sword.
Back in the day, investing at least had the advantage of simplicity. With such large fees and no practical way of tracking performance other than looking at closing prices in the next day’s newspaper, buy and hold was really the only option available to almost all retail investors. Now, if anything, there is pressure to go the other way, to trade actively, even when “set it and forget it” would probably be a better option. Everything on the major financial TV networks and social media is geared to the short-term, with traders rather than long-term investors being the day-to-day stars.
That leads to a lot of people trying to time the market, and a lot of exaggerated expectations. They think that if something is in profit, they have to sell before the market drops, and that the only time to buy is after a twenty percent or so decline. They look back and realize that doing that would have netted profits of fifty percent or whatever over the last year and believe that that is what they should be aiming for. Of course, logically, hitting the exact tops and bottoms of moves in order to achieve that is just about impossible, and trying to do it usually leads to the frustration of missed opportunity, or actual losses.
So, which is it? Should investors take advantage of all the available information and take an active approach to managing their portfolio, or should they trust the buy and hold method that has proven more effective over time? It is something that is particularly relevant now, with stocks posting significant gains in the first half of the year, despite some well-publicized risks and headlines.
Unfortunately, there is no one simple answer to that question, but the best, most practical approach is usually a bit of both. If you feel the need or desire to be active in some way, then understand that and have a separate, small account for trading, but keep the bulk of your funds invested in stocks or funds with a long-term bias. In your short-term trading account, set parameters for every trade and stick to them, taking a profit or loss when they are hit, regardless of what you may feel at that time. In that longer-term account, though, even if the aim is to buy and hold, it is possible to use the availability of information and ease of trading to your advantage.
I call this strategy a “rolling reassessment,” whereby you set levels, both above and below a stock’s current price, at which you re-evaluate your holdings. That re-evaluation involves looking at the fundamentals and prospects of the stock again. Has the company been performing as you expected? Is the investment thesis that led you to buy in the first place still valid? In short, if you didn’t own it already, would you buy it now? If the answer is yes, sit tight. If not, consider taking a profit -- or loss if that is the case -- on at least a portion of your position. Then invest that money in something with better prospects over the next year or so. Your bias, however, should always be towards holding, and selling should only be done when something looks seriously overvalued.
Having a plan to do that enables you to do the most important thing in the modern, media-driven world of investing: cut out the noise. You will get in the habit of evaluating a stock on what truly matters, the fundamentals of a company, and will be less tempted to buy the latest hot thing just before it cools down. On the other hand, it makes it less likely that you will just sit and watch when a stock with big gains goes out of favor, or the conditions that pushed it higher change and it retreats sharply.
The main point here is to invest and manage your investments intentionally. Make sure you understand that trading and investing are two different things and that positions taken with a view to trading must be managed differently to your investments. Understand too that you have an advantage over previous generations that makes it possible to make informed decisions about long-term holdings, and don’t be afraid to trust your analysis and sometimes take at least a partial profit or loss when the situation calls for it. Even if you do those two things, there is no guarantee that you will be successful but, if you do, you will increase the chances of success considerably.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buy-and-hold-or-active-investing-which-is-better-for-new-investors
Coffee with MarkZ 08/03/2023
"20 DINARS = $15 USD", 3 AUGUST
"What is the difference between an index fund and an ETF? ", 3 AUGUST
The differences between an index fund and an ETF boil down to four main areas -- fees, minimums, taxes, and liquidity -- all of which can help you to determine which one is your best option.
1. Fees and expenses
The primary difference between ETFs and index funds is how they're bought and sold. ETFs trade on an exchange just like stocks, and you buy or sell them through a broker. Index funds are bought directly from the fund manager.
Because ETFs are bought and sold on an exchange, you will pay a commission to your broker each time you make a trade. That said, some brokers offer commission-free trading.
Dividend distributions compound the issue of the differences between how ETFs and index funds are bought and sold. Dividends paid by index mutual funds can be automatically reinvested (fee-free!) into more shares of the fund.
However, when an ETF pays a dividend, you'll need to use the proceeds to buy more shares, incurring additional commissions and spending time logging into your account to make a quick trade. Some brokers may offer an automatic dividend reinvestment plan on a limited set of ETFs.
ETFs generally have a slight advantage when it comes to annual expense ratios -- which is the percentage of assets you'll pay for managing the fund. But the difference between expense ratios for widely traded ETFs and index funds has narrowed in recent years and almost disappeared. For more niche indexes, though, expense ratios could differ widely, usually favoring the ETF.
2. Minimum investments
You can invest in an ETF by buying as little as one share, which used to be the easiest way to start investing with very little capital. Several fund managers have lowered their minimum investments for their most popular index funds, so these days you can get started with a relatively small amount of money. The following table shows the minimum investments for S&P 500 mutual funds from three leading asset managers.
| INDEX FUND MANAGER | INITIAL MINIMUM | MINIMUM ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|
| FIDELITY | $0 | $0 |
| VANGUARD | $3,000 | $1 |
| CHARLES SCHWAB | $0 | $0 |
3. Tax differences
Long-term investors who are saving for retirement should use tax-advantaged retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs. I say this not just because it's smart -- because we all know minimizing taxes means more money left in your pocket -- but also because it means you can completely ignore the complicated details of the tax consequences of investing in different types of funds.
Index funds and ETFs are both extremely tax-efficient -- certainly more so than actively managed mutual funds. Because index funds buy and sell stocks so infrequently, they rarely trigger capital gains taxes for investors.
When it comes to tax efficiency, ETFs have the edge. Unlike index funds, ETFs rarely buy or sell stock for cash. When an investor wants to redeem shares, they simply sell them on the stock market, generally to another investor.
When an index fund investor wants to redeem an investment, the index fund may have to sell stocks it owns for cash to pay the investor for the shares. This means mutual funds have to realize capital gains by selling stocks, which results in capital gains (and taxes) for everyone who continues to hold the fund, even if they are currently losing money on their investment.
4. Liquidity
Liquidity, or the ease with which an investment can be bought or sold for cash, is an important differentiator between ETFs and index funds. As previously mentioned, ETFs are bought and sold like stocks, meaning you can buy or sell them anytime the stock market is open.
On the other hand, index fund transactions (like those of all mutual funds) are cleared in bulk after the market closes. So if you put in an order to sell shares of an index fund at noon, the transaction will actually take place hours later at a price equal to the value of the fund at market close. Typically, the cutoff time is 4 p.m. ET. Orders entered after the cutoff are pushed into the next day and completed at the fund's net asset value a day later.
If you consider yourself a trader, this matters. If you consider yourself a long-term investor, it really doesn't matter much at all.
Index Funds vs. ETFs
An ETF is best if you're an active trader or simply like to use more advanced strategies in your purchases. Since ETFs are bought and sold on exchanges like stocks, you can buy them using limit orders, stop-loss orders, or even margins. You can't use those kinds of strategies with mutual funds.
If you're investing in a taxable brokerage account, you may be able to squeeze out a bit more tax efficiency from an ETF than an index fund. However, index funds are still very tax-efficient, so the difference is negligible. Don't sell an index fund just to buy the equivalent ETF. That's just asking for all sorts of tax headaches.
Buy an index fund if your broker charges high commissions on your purchases and you want to be fully invested at all times. In some cases, you may be able to start investing in index funds with a lower minimum than for its equivalent ETF.
Index funds are also a great option when the equivalent ETF is thinly traded, creating a large spread in the difference between the ETF price on the exchange and the value of the underlying assets held by the ETF. An index fund will always price at the net asset value.
Always compare fees to make sure you're not paying too much of a premium for your choice. If you're on the fence between an ETF and an index fund, the expense ratio could be a good tiebreaker.
