STATED ON SATURDAY APPROVED FEDERAL BUDGET DOES NOT CURRENTLY REQUIRE BORROWING
Shafaq News/ Mazhar Muhammad Salih, the financial and economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, stated on Saturday that the recently approved federal budget, endorsed by the President of the Republic and entered into force last week, does not currently require borrowing.
Salih clarified to Shafaq News agency that the budget is based on a deficit due to the decision to set the price of a barrel of oil at $70, combined with high expenditures. However, he assured that the budget deficit has potential solutions, including utilizing the surpluses achieved in 2022 and implementing other financial measures.
If the need for borrowing arises, Salih emphasized that Iraq will opt for internal borrowing through the issuance of treasury bonds by the Ministry of Finance. He pointed out that maintaining oil prices above $70 per barrel will help reduce the deficit, while a drop in prices below this threshold may lead to an additional deficit.
Salih highlighted that the crucial factor is the stability of the annual average of oil prices rather than short-term fluctuations within a month or two, as this ultimately determines the impact on the country’s revenue, considering the amount of oil production exported.
The Iraqi parliament voted on the financial budget for 2023, 2024, and 2025 on June 11, following four consecutive sessions marked by disagreements between political forces regarding particular articles.
The budget for the current year amounts to 197.828 trillion Iraqi dinars (approximately $152.2 billion), with a total deficit of 63 trillion dinars (about $48.3 billion). However, details of the budget items for the years 2024 and 2025 have not been released.
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SUDANESE FINANCIAL ADVISOR TALKING ABOUT THE MEASURES TO CONTROL THE DINAR
The Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed the strength of the quantitative and price monetary policy tools in managing public liquidity, while identifying factors for stabilizing the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar.
Saleh said in a statement to the official agency, “Some are betting on the impossibility of controlling the levels of local liquidity generated by government spending, especially in the federal general budget 2023, which is based on methods of financing the budget in Iraqi dinars in exchange for oil revenues in foreign currency mostly, as oil revenues constitute reserves.” The Central Bank of Iraq, which helps to intervene in the money market to sterilize local liquidity levels and control them when they rise through the ability to meet the increasing demand for foreign exchange.
He added, “The bet is losing on the inability to intervene and control the levels of liquidity in dinars, which will rise with the rise in government expenditures due to the conditions of the compliance platform and the fear of them in meeting the demand for foreign exchange. Monetary policy and the strength of foreign reserves, which are the highest in the country’s financial history, are the only ones that possess the price tools.” And the different quantity affects the levels of liquidity that government spending mostly generates.
And Saleh continued, “There is a strong coordination and integration between monetary policy and the joints of economic policy and financial policy, and it affects drawing the rules of price stability factors and building an efficient commodity supply in order to achieve the goals of the Central Bank in stabilizing the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar, based on the goals of Decree Law No. 56 of 2004.” “.
He noted, “There is a very pessimistic extremist imagination that is spread from time to time and is not at all commensurate with the strength of the monetary and price policy tools in particular, and the opportunities available for government policies in general in addressing the shocks that are seen from time to time in the issue of public liquidity management.”
MUDHHER SALIH, OUTLINED THE IMPORTANCE OF THEWHITE PAPERAND ITS REFLECTION ON THE ECONOMIC REALITY
15-12-2021
(Do you remember this article from Dec 15, 2021? What does it say? I will remind you once again it’s the White Paper that is going to get us to the reinstatement. Did you read it yet. You can go to my blog page on it and find the link to it to read the full paper. But I also point out the clause that says the intend to move back to FOREX or a FOREX like global trading platform for the currency. Folks if you have been following the news since January you can clearly see the parallels from what is happening on the ground to this plan. Their words not mine…. 😊
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mudhher Salih, outlined the importance of the white paper and its reflection on the economic reality in the country, while noting that the paper is closer to an economic constitution.
“The white paper is a dual reform project that seeks to achieve the country’s financial sustainability with the ability to be economically sustainable in an integrated manner,” Salih told the Iraqi News Agency (INA).
He added, “The importance of this paper which works in the long term, has established, in the short period, an ideology that was confused in the economic society,”
“The white paper requires patience, determination and will build the country’s future in stability and development, as it is closer to an economic constitution,” he pointed out.
He explained, “The paper achieved something clear last year from adopting a road map towards the broader reform path, and this is what we can expect to adopt in maintaining and consolidating Iraq’s economic future without retreat,”
”The white paper is an indicator of the progress of economy and the consolidation of the economic life in Iraq, and it is the economic constitution on which any upcoming government curriculum will inevitably be based,” he noted.
Salih concluded, “We evaluate the successes and failures of implementing the white paper in its first year, in order to amend the course, delete or add important procedural issues to optimize the implementation of the reform paper,”
(The White Paper is now in its 3rd year of implementation. This is a 5 year plan. They might take some delays for some programs during Covid 2020 but it is moving ahead. When will they go the RV and project to delete the zeros? Go read it! It is that simple.)
SUDANESE FINANCIAL ADVISOR TALKING ABOUT THE MEASURES TO CONTROL THE DINAR
The Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed the strength of the quantitative and price monetary policy tools in managing public liquidity, while identifying factors for stabilizing the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar.
Saleh said in a statement to the official agency, “Some are betting on the impossibility of controlling the levels of local liquidity generated by government spending, especially in the federal general budget 2023, which is based on methods of financing the budget in Iraqi dinars in exchange for oil revenues in foreign currency mostly, as oil revenues constitute reserves.” The Central Bank of Iraq, which helps to intervene in the money market to sterilize local liquidity levels and control them when they rise through the ability to meet the increasing demand for foreign exchange.
He added, “The bet is losing on the inability to intervene and control the levels of liquidity in dinars, which will rise with the rise in government expenditures due to the conditions of the compliance platform and the fear of them in meeting the demand for foreign exchange. Monetary policy and the strength of foreign reserves, which are the highest in the country’s financial history, are the only ones that possess the price tools.” And the different quantity affects the levels of liquidity that government spending mostly generates.
And Saleh continued, “There is a strong coordination and integration between monetary policy and the joints of economic policy and financial policy, and it affects drawing the rules of price stability factors and building an efficient commodity supply in order to achieve the goals of the Central Bank in stabilizing the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar, based on the goals of Decree Law No. 56 of 2004.” “.
He noted, “There is a very pessimistic extremist imagination that is spread from time to time and is not at all commensurate with the strength of the monetary and price policy tools in particular, and the opportunities available for government policies in general in addressing the shocks that are seen from time to time in the issue of public liquidity management.”
ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER: THE MARKET VALUE OF IRAQ’S RAW WEALTH EXCEEDS $15 TRILLION
Today, Saturday, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, identified a theory to maximize Iraq’s revenues through its natural resources, and while he confirmed that Iraq ranks ninth in the world with its resources, he indicated that the market value of Iraq’s raw wealth exceeds 15 trillion dollars.
Saleh said, in an interview with the official agency: “Iraq is one of the most important countries in the world, if not at the forefront of nations rich in natural resources or raw materials within the scope of the international classification of resources on the globe, as Iraq takes the (ninth) sequence among the priority of countries in the world that possess Natural diversity and economic quantities in the capacity of raw materials reservoirs capable of manufacturing and export or national industrial use.
He added: “As the circles estimate that the market value of those raw wealth in our country may exceed 15 trillion dollars at the current value, compared to about 45 trillion dollars for the United States of America, which is (the second) globally, and 75 trillion dollars for the Russian Federation, which is (the first) globally.”
And he continued: “And when taking into account the historical experience in development, which is represented today by the development of an important international group of economies called (raw or basic material countries), which relied in their economic development and development on the manufacture and export of natural resources, Canada, Australia and New Zealand come at the forefront today, The thesis (raw or basic materials) comes in economic development, and it is one of the theories of export-led growth.
He pointed out that “the theory of export-led growth has its origins in research in social, political and economic history that was conducted specifically in Canadian universities by researchers of what were known as political economy departments, and among these groups of researchers was the economist Harold Ennis, Mackintosh and others, among the most prominent.” researchers who took this approach.
And he added, “Therefore, we find that our country carries a unique model of economic development that puts it in the ranks of developed nations, and development can proceed strongly from the theory of manufacturing raw or natural materials in our country and exporting it to lead development,” pointing out that “the natural resources that the economic model may work on Al-Iraqi for Development is represented by manufacturing raw exports with dozens of exploitable natural resources, provided that manufacturing chains with high technologies are capable of generating internal manufacturing linkages, which is called (value-added chains generated from links or backlinks of inputs and outputs) within the national factory. Iraq, through which the process of manufacturing and manufacturing is maximized, and the added value flourishes before being exported as products, which serve as production inputs to world markets.
He stressed “the importance of Derayah’s reflection on the prosperity of economic development and the growth rates required to be achieved, in light of the degree of development of material capital accumulation and its high value, or in terms of the growth of the gross domestic product of our country.”
STATED ON SATURDAY APPROVED FEDERAL BUDGET DOES NOT CURRENTLY REQUIRE BORROWING
Shafaq News/ Mazhar Muhammad Salih, the financial and economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, stated on Saturday that the recently approved federal budget, endorsed by the President of the Republic and entered into force last week, does not currently require borrowing.
Salih clarified to Shafaq News agency that the budget is based on a deficit due to the decision to set the price of a barrel of oil at $70, combined with high expenditures. However, he assured that the budget deficit has potential solutions, including utilizing the surpluses achieved in 2022 and implementing other financial measures.
If the need for borrowing arises, Salih emphasized that Iraq will opt for internal borrowing through the issuance of treasury bonds by the Ministry of Finance. He pointed out that maintaining oil prices above $70 per barrel will help reduce the deficit, while a drop in prices below this threshold may lead to an additional deficit.
Salih highlighted that the crucial factor is the stability of the annual average of oil prices rather than short-term fluctuations within a month or two, as this ultimately determines the impact on the country’s revenue, considering the amount of oil production exported.
The Iraqi parliament voted on the financial budget for 2023, 2024, and 2025 on June 11, following four consecutive sessions marked by disagreements between political forces regarding particular articles.
The budget for the current year amounts to 197.828 trillion Iraqi dinars (approximately $152.2 billion), with a total deficit of 63 trillion dinars (about $48.3 billion). However, details of the budget items for the years 2024 and 2025 have not been released.
(If you read the entire article, you can clearly see that Iraq does not want to borrow from the IMF and thus eliminate the forces of the “economic hitman” which came to Iraq many years ago. Yes, the central banking system had been unleashed on Iraq however their strategy appears not to be working nd Iraq is fighting them. Also you don’t think this is part of their sinister plan also by holding back the reinstatement of the dinar?….just saying…. They want Iraq real bad,.. However they are at a point now that the IMF realizes they are not going to win. This article proves it.)
THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY CLARIFIES ITS POSITION ON APPROVING THE OIL AND GAS LAW
The leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Representative Mahma Khalil, confirmed, on Saturday, that there is a political will to pass the oil and gas law during the current parliamentary session.
Khalil said in a statement to Al-Maalouma, that “the multiple meetings between the federal government and the leaders of the Kurdish parties at the highest levels, in addition to the technical delegations that were held dozens of times, led to the existence of a political will to solve the issue of legislation of the oil and gas law.”
He added, “All the forces of the state coalition are unanimous in approving the oil and gas law and speeding up its legislation during the current parliamentary session, with the aim of ending the problems between the central government and the regional government.”
He pointed out that “the issue of oil and gas will be in the next stage on the agenda of the House of Representatives, and everyone is excited to end this file in the next stage.”
Despite the economic importance of the Iraqi Oil and Gas Law, which has been awaiting legislation in Parliament since 2005, which stipulates that the responsibility for managing the country’s oil fields should be entrusted to a national oil company, supervised by Baghdad, the dispute over the issue of managing the fields of the Kurdistan region Iraq’s oil industry prevented voting on it for many years.
(Okay, so I have been saying all along for a decade now that Iraq needed a referendum (a Law) legislated to regulate the Oil and Gas. The constitution must be fully implemented to get the reinstatement. I have been told this many times. But then why do they bait us speculative investors all the time with these fake RV targets? Do we have to wait for this event until the next parliament term coming up after Eid? Why do these intel gurus keep telling you this law is all done? This article clearly shows us its not. Remember this article and challenge you intel gurus on it. 😊 😊 😊 )
ECONOMIST INDICATES THE RISKS OF CURRENCY PRINTING
Asher, the economic expert, Ahmed Saddam, today, Saturday, the dangers of currency printing.
Saddam stated to Earth News that “there is no economic feasibility in printing the currency to cover the budget expenses for the reason that the increase or printing of the currency will raise the level of the monetary mass and thus will cause a significant rise in the price level by virtue of the lack of current production capacity within the economy, meaning an increase in the monetary mass.”
(basically printing more money to increase the currency in circulation will cause inflation. I think we all know the danger of this now since the US has made this their policy and we can see the inflation in the US. Time to go back to the gold standard…. 😊)
In exchange for the absence of real non-oil production in the commodity sectors, namely agriculture and the manufacturing industry.
He added, “This will translate into a rise in the price level, in other words, a rise in the level of inflation and a decrease in the value of the Iraqi currency. The interests in the private sector lead to the dismissal of a number of workers and reduce them by virtue of the weak purchasing power and thus the failure to achieve revenues that can employ a larger number of workers.
And that “these are all negative effects that may be left behind by resorting to printing a new currency in return for the lack of real production capacity, in addition to a lack of confidence in the Iraqi currency and in decisions, and this causes great economic confusion even at the level of the investment decision, which in the end affects the reality of the economy in a way very negative.”
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, No Opinions ,,,,,
Just the FACTS!
Disclaimer: All information in this newsletter is not intended for investment decisions / purposes. Mnt Goat is not a financial analyst, planner, banker, attorney or associated in any role with giving out professional investment advice.
MUDHHER SALIH, OUTLINED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WHITE PAPER AND ITS REFLECTION ON THE ECONOMIC REALITY
15-12-2021
(Do you remember this article from Dec 15, 2021? What does it say? I will remind you once again it’s the White Paper that is going to get us to the reinstatement. Did you read it yet. You can go to my blog page on it and find the link to it to read the full paper. But I also point out the clause that says the intend to move back to FOREX or a FOREX like global trading platform for the currency. Folks if you have been following the news since January you can clearly see the parallels from what is happening on the ground to this plan. Their words not mine….
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mudhher Salih, outlined the importance of the white paper and its reflection on the economic reality in the country, while noting that the paper is closer to an economic constitution.
“The white paper is a dual reform project that seeks to achieve the country’s financial sustainability with the ability to be economically sustainable in an integrated manner,” Salih told the Iraqi News Agency (INA).
He added, “The importance of this paper which works in the long term, has established, in the short period, an ideology that was confused in the economic society,”
“The white paper requires patience, determination and will build the country’s future in stability and development, as it is closer to an economic constitution,” he pointed out.
He explained, “The paper achieved something clear last year from adopting a road map towards the broader reform path, and this is what we can expect to adopt in maintaining and consolidating Iraq’s economic future without retreat,”
”The white paper is an indicator of the progress of economy and the consolidation of the economic life in Iraq, and it is the economic constitution on which any upcoming government curriculum will inevitably be based,” he noted.
Salih concluded, “We evaluate the successes and failures of implementing the white paper in its first year, in order to amend the course, delete or add important procedural issues to optimize the implementation of the reform paper,”
ECONOMIST INDICATES THE RISKS OF CURRENCY PRINTING
Asher, the economic expert, Ahmed Saddam, today, Saturday, the dangers of currency printing.
Saddam stated to Earth News that “there is no economic feasibility in printing the currency to cover the budget expenses for the reason that the increase or printing of the currency will raise the level of the monetary mass and thus will cause a significant rise in the price level by virtue of the lack of current production capacity within the economy, meaning an increase in the monetary mass.”
(basically printing more money to increase the currency in circulation will cause inflation. I think we all know the danger of this now since the US has made this their policy and we can see the inflation in the US. Time to go back to the gold standard…. )
In exchange for the absence of real non-oil production in the commodity sectors, namely agriculture and the manufacturing industry.
He added, “This will translate into a rise in the price level, in other words, a rise in the level of inflation and a decrease in the value of the Iraqi currency. The interests in the private sector lead to the dismissal of a number of workers and reduce them by virtue of the weak purchasing power and thus the failure to achieve revenues that can employ a larger number of workers.
And that “these are all negative effects that may be left behind by resorting to printing a new currency in return for the lack of real production capacity, in addition to a lack of confidence in the Iraqi currency and in decisions, and this causes great economic confusion even at the level of the investment decision, which in the end affects the reality of the economy in a way very negative.”
First, I need to apologize for the later newsletter. I was waiting for some news from the CBI in a call -back conference call to give to you in this newsletter. But it did not happen. My contact did not get back to me yet. So, I am now publishing the newsletter with the news I do have for you.
Parliament is now on recess until after Eid holiday. When they come back the focus is said to be all about two issues. How to solve the budget deficit without borrowing money and to get the Oil and Gas law passed and implements.
Remember I have been saying all a long that these intel gurus who keep telling you the Oil and Gas law is “all done” are not correct. Yes, under the constitution for Iraq this must be completed and has been at a stand still and disputed since 2005. Seems now there is a new ignited will to get it done. Is this energy coming because they know it is required and they will not get back their currency unless they do get a referendum (law) passed? Just asking….. 😊
Remember the federal general budget is based on methods of financing the budget in Iraqi dinars in exchange for oil revenues in foreign currency mostly, as oil revenues constitute reserves. The CBI does not want to just use the reserves to fund a deficit. They also think borrowing is a bad idea too. So what do they do? We already witnessed the fight to significantly reduce the budget deficit. Some of that fight was to lower Kurdistan’s share…not going to work…. So now there is a new plan to pay for the deficit after the budget is passed, they are not specifically telling us the entire plan, but we can see it does NOT include printing more money to cover it or borrowing from the IMF.
I quote from today’s article- The economic expert, Ahmed Saddam, said today, Saturday, the dangers of currency printing to cover the budget deficit – “there is no economic feasibility in printing the currency to cover the budget expenses for the reason that the increase or printing of the currency will raise the level of the monetary mass and thus will cause significant inflation.
The Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed the strength of the quantitative and price monetary policy tools in managing public liquidity, while identifying factors for stabilizing the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar. Yes, they still have a “black market” parallel rate of about 1450 running against the CBI “official” rate of 1320. I fully believe the CBI intends to move to very close to 1000 or lower as the official rate prior to the reinstatement. They will have to reduce it one more time in order to get to the 1:1 rate they are talking about. How can they do this without this next move then?
So, in my last couple newsletters I detailed to you how the in-country RV would work and how the Reinstatement out side the country would work. I showed you the calculations I use. Don’t let any of these intel gurus lie to you and tell you the dinar rv’d at a ridiculous high rate in Iraq. This is so impossible and I showed you why. Also do not let anyone tell you the RV occurred and we are “just waiting for it to come to the US”. This also is just so impossible and ridiculous you should shoot these gurus for even telling you this…lol..lol..lol.. 😊. Come’on where is the common sense even… Just shows you their overall ignorance of not just the happenings in Iraq but also how the international monetary system works. I don’t whether to laugh or cry over some of this bullshit.
So, this is our RV status for now. Today I will be calling my contact in Iraq CBI and getting the full scoop, I hope, on why we have not seen the reinstatement and project to delete the zeros as they told me it would occur this week sometime. I will be asking if it is the Oil and Gas law holding it up or what? But something is holding it up, obviously.
