Member: Can Iraq go very long with the new policy of not letting any more than one million dinar leave the country now per person?
MZ: No- not really …I don’t think they can very long now that they are shutting down the auctions …they have to bring in money from other countries until the dinar is more powerful.
Member: What about your bond holder? Is he liquid?
MZ: I am hearing “crickets” from the one bond holder that was supposed to have dollars by today. I am not too surprised…..either he is trying to figure out where it’s at…or he got it and went quiet. My suspicion is he has not been paid yet or does not have full access yet. .
Member: Bond folks are in the same position as we are. Waiting for the trigger
MZ: I totally agree
Member: Hello, my name is Bond….Paid Bond…..lol
MZ: Shaken or stirred?
Member: Any Redemption center news?
MZ: They are still waiting and still hopeful . My contacts who have been trained in exchanging foreign currencies (specifically the currencies we hold) also work in wealth management. They all know there will be a sudden injection of wealth. They are prepared and ready and just as frustrated and irritated as you and I are.
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
Member: Hello to all fellow Dinarians
MZ:: In Iraq: “Full decisions of the cabinet meeting” This is a long article….they are getting into the big, heavy decisions they have in front of them. The reforms going on in Iraq are impressive……Why do I point them out? Many are part of their white papers and banking and monetary reforms along with the increase of the purchasing power of the dinar.
MZ: “ Al Azim: Welcomes the holding of next Thursdays session to elect the speaker of Parliament” One of my sources in Iraq believes this is important and one of the reasons they have not pulled the trigger.
Member: There has not been a speaker in Parliament for close to 2 years…..it sucks they are just getting around to it…….sounds suspicious to me.
MZ: This is interesting: “ Coinciding with the dollar. Gold prices begin to rise in the Iraqi markets” the biggest thing is the amount of gold purchasing going on in the Iraqi markets. Not only by Central banks but also by individuals purchasing gold. Its almost as if everybody knows the world is going gold backed?
Member: Any news on the bonds side yet?
Member: I did get an update from a bond person who fully expects everything . They are waiting on a transaction to finish with full liquidity in the morning. I should know in the morning if he has liquidity..
MZ: Most however are anticipating it happening from this evening to midweek next week for their liquidity…..we are praying they get it. That will mean we have crossed the Rubicon.
Member: Mark, waiting on bonds in EU and HK to pay soon. Will let you know if it goes.
MZ : I’m waiting to hear if they are going in Hong Kong as well.
MZ: I am not overly optimistic though- This close to the election.
Member: unless the election is the diversion they need to release everything?
Member: Hey all. I remember someone in chat posted months ago that a bond flipper was paid and under an NDA until Thanksgiving. So perhaps before Thanksgiving for us may be a good bet.
Member: Does Mr. C still think it will happen before Thanksgiving?
MZ: He does – He thinks it will be in the next week or two since things are looking so good.
Member: Thanks Mark and mods…..be blessed.
Member: Enjoy the rest of your evening everyone…sleep well
Zester joins the stream tonight. Please listen to the replay for his opinions and information.
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY
We see this in today’s articles too when they called the CBI policies regarding the interest rates as “INCOMPREHENSIBLE” and so obviously they don’t care for the flexible “HYBRID MONETARY POLICY” of the CBI.
We have to remember that sometimes there are moments when desperate times brings desperate measures.
They might not be in line with things done in the past, but they work and so this measure of interest rate reduction did work regardless of the author’s OPINION that it did not work. As said in the article that 80% of the issued dinar is outside the banking system. But either the translation got messed up or this author is really off key.
I quote from the article;“As for (Iraq), the previous interest rates of 7.5% did not succeed in (withdrawing the hoarded cash) out of the banking system, which exceeds 80% of the issued dinar”.
So, what is wrong with this statement in the article?
First, much of the 80% of the hoarded cash is outside the banking system and we as investors physically hold it. Since the initial issue of the three zero notes the CBI has more than tripled the issued monetary mass. They must shrink it back by 2/3. There are no other measures that will get this money into the banks unless they revalue it and exchange our currency to bring it back to Iraq through the central banking system.
Secondly, the CBI is attempting to bring this money “into” the banking system not “out” of it, as the article tells us (but this could just be a translation issue too).
Third, the CBI Hybrid Monetary Policy is working and has successfully withdrew much of the cash back and is still withdrawing much of this hoarded cash back to the banks and so I don’t know why the author is saying this. I have coordinated already with my CBI contact and verified the success of the program so far. There is still more to come. They need more time. But they have a figure and know an amount they need to get.
The Dinar Under Siege: How Do Smuggling Mafias Strike the Cash Reserve?
Reports indicate a worrying increase in the activity of currency smuggling mafias in Iraq, which has raised widespread questions about the serious repercussions of this activity on the Iraqi economy.
Such operations that aim to transfer money abroad illegally lead to huge losses in the cash reserve and affect the state’s ability to finance basic needs, and contribute to the exacerbation of inflation and the deterioration of the value of the Iraqi dinar.
One economic analysis states that: “Currency smuggling operations weaken Iraq’s foreign exchange reserves, increasing the country’s inability to meet its basic import needs, and leading to a deterioration in the balance of payments. This illegal outflow of funds not only leads to weak domestic investment, but also creates an unstable economic environment, raising concerns among foreign and local investors alike.”
Another aspect of the negative effects of these operations appears in the financing of illegal activities such as drug trafficking and support for armed groups, indicating that currency smuggling is not only an economic issue, but a security problem that affects the stability of Iraq more deeply.
The various methods used to smuggle money include foreign imports that take place outside the official platform of the Central Bank, which is a violation of the laws and increases chaos in the market.
Reports indicate that some parties are deliberately seeking to weaken the national currency by raising the price of the dollar in an exaggerated manner, which raises questions about the possibility of internal parties colluding with smuggling networks to increase their profits at the expense of the national economy.
Expert Mohammed Al-Kubaisi explains that currency smuggling mafias exploit political and economic crises to increase their activities, taking advantage of weak government oversight and financial turmoil to achieve huge profits.
The problem seems to go beyond the economy to include deeper issues related to weak legislation and government control, which is prompting some analysts to call on the government to take strict measures, including imposing strict controls on financial transactions and setting policies that encourage local investment to limit the flow of money abroad.
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Lilfish:IMF Touts US Economy the Growth Engine of the World
WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will continue to provide most of the thrust for global growth through the balance of this year and in 2025, led by robust consumer spending that has held up through a wrenching bout of inflation and the high interest rates used to tame it, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2024 and 2025 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. - the only developed economy to see its outlook marked up for both years - and its chief economist said the "soft landing" sought by the Federal Reserve in which inflation eases without big damage to the job market had largely been achieved.
Emerging market powerhouses India and Brazil also stood out on the upside of the IMF forecasts, while it dialed back growth expectations for China for this year and left next year's forecast for the world's No. 2 economy at a below-trend 4.5%.
Still, it warned that risks abound from armed conflicts, potential new trade wars and the hangover from the tight monetary policy employed by the Fed and other central banks to rein in inflation.
"Today, the IMF reported that the United States is leading the advanced economies on growth for the second year in a row," Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, said in a statement.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook said the shifts will leave 2024 global GDP growth unchanged from the 3.2% projected by the global lender in July, setting a lackluster tone for growth as world finance leaders gather in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.
Global growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than forecast in July, while medium-term growth is expected to fade to a "mediocre" 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend, the report showed.
Nonetheless, the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said some countries, including the U.S., were showing resilience.
"The news on the U.S. is very good in a sense," Gourinchas said at a press conference in Washington. "The labor market picture remains one that is fairly robust, even though it has cooled off."
"I think the risks of a recession in the U.S. in the absence of a very sharp shock would be somewhat diminished," he said.
Although Gourinchas said it looked as if the global inflation battle had largely been won, he told Reuters in an interview there is a risk that monetary policy could "mechanically" become too tight without interest rate cuts in some countries as inflation subsides, weighing on growth and jobs.
CONSUMER STRENGTH
The IMF revised its 2024 U.S. growth forecast upward by two-tenths of a percentage point to 2.8% due largely to stronger-than-expected consumption fueled by rising wages and asset prices. The global lender also upgraded its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by three-tenths of a percentage point to 2.2%, slightly delaying a return to trend growth.