Monday, November 4, 2024
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Latest Iraq News About the HCL Law 2024, 4 NOV
Latest Iraq News About the HCL Law 2024
The much-discussed and often delayed Iraqi Hydrocarbon Law (HCL) is poised to play a critical role in the country's economic and political future. As of November 3, 2024, the law has been under intense scrutiny and debate for the past 15 years, reflecting the deep political and regional divisions within Iraq. The HCL aims to boost the country's hydrocarbon industry by attracting more international investments and transitioning from fee-per-barrel contracts to production-sharing agreements and service contracts.
Key Points of the HCL
Economic and Political Implications
The successful passage and implementation of the HCL would be a significant indicator of the Iraqi government's ability to achieve compromise and stability. Yahia Said, a key figure in the International Compact with the UN, emphasized that the law has become a political battleground between those who advocate for a more unified Iraq and those who prefer a decentralized federation. The law's approval could help calm violence and foster social, economic, and political stability.
Investment and Production
The new draft of the HCL, presented to the Iraqi parliament, aims to increase Iraq's oil production capacity to a record six million barrels per day (mbpd). This ambitious goal is part of a broader plan to accelerate hydrocarbon projects, including crude oil production, refining, gas, and renewable energy. The law's provisions for production-sharing agreements are expected to make Iraq a more attractive destination for international oil companies.
Regional and International Impact
The HCL's passage could have far-reaching implications for Iraq's relations with its neighbors and international partners. For instance, the resumption of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline operations, lauded by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlights the potential for enhanced regional cooperation. However, the law's implementation will also depend on resolving ongoing disputes and building trust among various stakeholders.
Challenges and Controversies
Political Opposition and Regional Disputes
The HCL has faced significant political opposition and regional disputes, which have contributed to its long delay. The law's contentious nature reflects the broader political and economic challenges in Iraq. Critics argue that the current draft may not adequately address the concerns of all parties, particularly those related to revenue distribution and environmental impact.
Economic Incentives and Disincentives
While the HCL aims to create a more investor-friendly environment, some experts caution that the terms and conditions of the new contracts could still be a disincentive for international oil companies. The transition from fee-per-barrel contracts to production-sharing agreements will need to be carefully managed to ensure that both the government and private investors benefit.
Timeline and Next Steps
Legislative Process
The new draft of the HCL has been presented to the Iraqi parliament and could be voted on after the December elections. The financial adviser to Iraq’s prime minister, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, has emphasized the importance of passing the law "as soon as possible" to establish a stable national road map for investment and production.
Future Outlook
The HCL's passage and implementation will be crucial for Iraq's future. It will not only impact the country's hydrocarbon industry but also have broader implications for its economic development and political stability. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the HCL can overcome the political and regional obstacles and achieve its intended goals.
TIDBIT FROM MNT GOAT, 4 NOV
Mnt Goat
Article: "AL-ALAQ: THE VOLUME OF CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION EXCEEDS 100 TRILLION DINARS"
Quote: “Today, we have more than 100 trillion dinars in circulation (issued currency), not all of the money supply, and reserves of more than 100 billion dollars, which means that the Central Bank has achieved an important basis for monetary stability,”
explaining that “inflation is the basic measure of the Central Bank’s ability to perform its mission and basic function. It is less than 3.8%, which is considered a typical percentage that actually achieves stability and prosperity.”
Sunday, November 3, 2024
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Latest Developments: Iraq and the WTO in 2024, 4 NOV
Latest Developments: Iraq and the WTO in 2024
On November 3, 2024, significant progress has been made in Iraq's bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). After a 16-year hiatus, Iraq has resumed its negotiations to become a member of the WTO, a move that could have substantial economic benefits for the country. Here's a detailed overview of the recent developments:
Resumption of Negotiations
Iraq announced on July 18, 2024, that it has resumed negotiations to join the WTO after a 16-year pause. The Iraqi Trade Minister, Athir Dawood Al-Ghurairi, stated that Iraqi negotiation teams have started preparatory meetings at the WTO headquarters in Geneva. These meetings are crucial for the third working group meeting on Iraq's accession.
Key Challenges and Support
Technical and Legal Preparations
Iraq faces significant challenges in its accession process, primarily due to the need for comprehensive legislative and regulatory reforms. The country must align its trade-related legal and institutional frameworks with GATT/WTO rules. This includes addressing a wide range of questions from WTO member countries regarding Iraq's foreign trade regime and initial offers in goods and services.
International Support
Several international organizations and countries are providing support to Iraq in its accession process: United States: The US has pledged support for a series of projects aimed at helping Iraq join the WTO and protect intellectual property rights. International Trade Centre (ITC): The ITC has organized training programs to provide in-depth insights and practical tools for Iraqi policymakers. The training focused on project management and value chain analysis. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD): UNCTAD will undertake an advisory mission to Baghdad from October 6 to 9, 2024, to guide and support Iraqi officials and negotiators in their technical preparatory work.
Benefits and Implications
Economic Benefits
Joining the WTO could bring several economic benefits to Iraq, including increased trade, improved market access, and enhanced investment opportunities. The WTO provides a platform for governments to negotiate trade rules and disputes, which can help Iraq integrate more effectively into the global economy.
Regional Stability
Iraq's accession to the WTO could also contribute to regional stability by fostering economic cooperation and reducing tensions. The process of aligning with international trade standards can help Iraq build stronger economic ties with its neighbors and the global community.
Timeline and Next Steps
Third Working Party Meeting: The third meeting of the Working Party on Iraq's accession to the WTO was held on July 18, 2024. Advisory Mission: UNCTAD will conduct an advisory mission to Baghdad from October 6 to 9, 2024. Future Meetings: Additional meetings will be held to review Iraq’s accession to the WTO, with the next meeting date yet to be specified.
Conclusion
Iraq's renewed efforts to join the WTO mark a significant step towards economic reform and international integration. Despite the challenges, the support from international organizations and countries like the United States is crucial in helping Iraq navigate the complex accession process. As Iraq continues to align its trade policies with international standards, the potential economic and regional benefits are substantial.
TIDBIT FROM MILITIAMAN, 4 NOV
Militia Man
They're maintaining control of the general level of pricing, they're controlling inflation, reducing both in the management of monetary mass.
Reducing the monetary mass, what does that do?
If you take money out of the system, there's less of it...You have more value. They're reducing the money supply.
Inflation rate was at 7.5% now it's down about half of that 3.8%. If they reduced inflation by almost 50%, then wouldn't that likely be reasonable to presume that they reduce the monetary mass about the same amount? It sure seems like it.
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