Like I said way back in 2023 even before the budget was finalized that there would NEVER be an RV rate in any budget. Why? Because the Iraqi budget is based on the selling price of a barrel of oil and not their currency rate...Budgets are based on revenues not currency rates.
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I...asked [my CBI contact] how the rate of the dinar would be determined in the future...I was...told that “you know and I know that the rate of the dinar is now being artificially suppressed”...I was told that Iraq is in a much better situation now prior to the 1990 embargo and so why not have an international rate again with at least a rate equivalent to the late 1980’s prior to the invasion...
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...it is nearing the end of June already...
Recently we witnessed a surge of news from many of the prominent global entities including the UN, World Bank, IMF and the EU. All of them praising Iraq and giving “kudos” to them for the hard work and achievements. Today is not different as the articles once again tell the RV spigot is wide open to the RV.
Article: "DOZENS OF IRAQI COMPANIES PARTICIPATE IN AN INVESTMENT SUMMIT IN AMERICA"
...in the past years I said – What is the US waiting for? Why have they not yet invested the US companies in Iraq? There is billions to make over there. – Well the spigot had to be opened first and now it's opened. The spigot analogy means that the sanctions are over, war reparations paid and now they can do business easily with the rest of the world. But as you know with Iraq nothing happens overnight and so it took a year and a half to open the spigot but now it’s opened up wide.
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Article: "DOZENS OF IRAQI COMPANIES PARTICIPATE IN AN INVESTMENT SUMMIT IN AMERICA" ...in the past years I said – What is the US waiting for?
Why have they not yet invested the US companies in Iraq? There is billions to make over there. – Well the spigot had to be opened first and now it's opened. The spigot analogy means that the sanctions are over, war reparations paid and now they can do business easily with the rest of the world. But as you know with Iraq nothing happens overnight and so it took a year and a half to open the spigot but now it’s opened up wide.
So as investors where do we stand with the RV?
Based on this information from my Saturday call to Iraq, I will summarize it for you. We are still waiting for the US to give assurances. The project to delete the zeros was scheduled for June and we will still have a week remaining in June. This is all I know and can tell everyone at this point. But don’t go off too excited and forget all the other information my contact just told us either. You must put everything into its proper ..FOR READ MORE: https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/06/so-as-investors-where-do-we-stand-with.html
The Service of Power expected good repercussions in the field of electrical energy that residents will feel in this month.
The Associate Chief General of the General Organization for Power Conveyance in Baghdad, Ahmed Murtada Saeed, let the authority paper know that “the organization has arranged an exceptional arrangement for the activity of feeders and related portable or speedy establishment stations, as it introduced many low-pressure transformers in every aspect of Baghdad during the previous week.”
That’s what he added “good repercussions are normal on energy and its dispersion component between the region of the capital, Baghdad, and residents can feel this improvement beginning from the center of this July.”
“There are over 3,000 feeders for electrical energy in the capital, Baghdad,” he said. He made sense of that “the distinction that will happen emphatically in giving energy isn’t an answer for the energy issue on a basic level, yet rather a steady arrangement at a sped up pace.”
You're not going to get Iraq to jump into the world market, the global stage, without being able to be competitive and communicate electronically - Platforms needed to be designed...We know they have e-government...e-education, they have all that and done it over a short period of time. The electronic systems at the borders, the ISA system are global. They are worldly...The WTO is at the core of this. It's real.
Iraq...hasn't had a real effective exchange rate for over 20 years...Man we're really really close.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate changes the whole dynamics. They wouldn't have gotten this far in the stage if they were going to go do all the things they're talking about at 1310. They would have already done it by now...
They're effectively stating to everybody that they're going international. They're giving a laundry list of all the things they've done, are doing and in support of where they're headed.
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That's what we are waiting for as we speak [seeing what's in the budget]. We haven't seen them expose that rate or that information to us just yet but they're going to. They don't have much choice because June 12th it [The budget] became law...The court already said... just because they have an appeal doesn't mean they have any weight to them.
The budget is only at $70 [per barrel], they've been trying to see if they can modify it and kick it up to $80 so they can spend more money...Oil prices are at $80+ and they think it's going to keep moving forward for the next year or year and a half.
Article quote "...the global energy market sources indicate the current rise in oil prices will continue until the end of the year 2025."
Everybody should be pumped and ready to go...
Article quote: "Sovereign guarantees to the private sector will contribute to the industrial renaissance"
This article right here will blow your socks off...
The Dollar In The Parallel Market.. Al-Sudani’s Advisor Presents A Different Vision And Economic Experts: An Imaginary Stability
2024-07-02 Shafaq News/ The advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister disagreed with what four economic experts said regarding the "stability" of the US dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, stressing that "the stability of the dollar is real and solid and not imaginary as some believe."
However, the economic experts said that the stability is "not reassuring," and what is happening now is a decrease in the dollar's volatility, while stability will occur when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank.
The Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, says, “The exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market today in our country does not constitute any relative importance in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1,220 dinars per dollar.
It is a stable trend for the exchange rate and the stable external value of the dinar revolves around it, which is embodied by the state of stability in the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent.”
Saleh added to Shafaq News Agency, "Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, whose value as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion,
which is the highest in the history of Iraq in the development of its international reserves, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market due to urgent international or regional political events here and there."
He explains, "After the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year, legally, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets and at a rate of 10 percent of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."
Saleh concluded by saying, “Accordingly, the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar to the dollar that the country is witnessing, even in the secondary markets above, is a real and solid stability and not an illusion as some believe.
Rather, it is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and fiscal policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country and containing the inflationary expectations that were caused by the forces of the parallel exchange market during the past years.”
But the economic researcher, Ali Abdul-Kazem, explained that “the stability of the dollar occurs when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank, but until now its price is more than 15 points above the official price in the budget, so there is no stability, but the fluctuation in the parallel market is somewhat stable as a result of several things, including the increase in the number of dollars that were for pilgrims.”
Abdul-Kazem added to Shafaq News Agency, "The budget has not been launched yet and its implementation began this month, and this also has an impact, as well as increasing the Central Bank's sales of dollars, and the recession witnessed by the markets reduces import operations, and all these reasons and others have helped to keep the dollar low in the current markets, as for the stabilization process, when the dollar reaches the official price, then it can be said that the dollar price has stabilized between the parallel and official."
The economic expert, Karim Al-Helou, agrees with what Ali Abdul-Kazem said regarding the instability of the dollar, “but these are temporary cases, because the issue of the dollar in Iraq is supply and demand. When bank transfers abroad increase without obstacles and routine, the demand for the dollar decreases, which leads to its decline.
When there are obstacles in Iraqi banks, especially with Iran, from which Iraq imports 13 billion dollars annually, we need hard currency to deliver it to Iran, or some places where a platform has not been opened, such as Iran and others, these require going to the market.”
Al-Halou explained to Shafaq News Agency, "This stability is temporary and lasts for days, and there are mafias specializing in the dollar that have huge amounts of dollars that they put down in the market, which leads to a decrease in its price, and then they buy it again and the supply decreases, which leads to demand for it and its price rises again."
He points out that "the budget has not been launched yet, and many projects are stalled due to the lack of advances for these projects, although the Prime Minister recently launched the delivery of advances, but it takes time due to the bureaucracy. Therefore, in this case, the demand for imported materials from abroad decreases, and therefore the demand for the dollar decreases, which leads to a kind of calm and stability that exists."
He explains, "Iraq imports 90 percent of its materials from abroad, most of which are in dollars. Some countries have opened platforms for them, and the Central Bank's transfers amount to 280 million dollars, which is a huge amount. In addition, citizens' travel for Hajj and other purposes, in addition to the summer vacation not starting for the sixth grade, all of this leads to a decrease in demand for the dollar."
“Therefore, all these factors lead the dollar to calm and stability. It previously fell to 144, but then rose again to 148, and the difference with the official 1320 is more than 15 points. Therefore, this is not stability. Rather, the correct stability is as it was before, when it was 1120 in the Central Bank and 1121 abroad. This situation continued for years, and strategic projects were set at 1121 for the dollar.
However, after former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi raised the dollar price against the dinar, the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, came and restored it, but the fluctuation continued, due to the presence of mafias, a political lobby, and banks affiliated with parties that have a relationship with the dollar file.”
Al-Halou concluded his speech by saying, “Therefore, the stability is not reassuring and not natural. Rather, it is merely periods for certain cases related to imports, travel, and all factors related to the exit of the dollar from Iraq.”
This is what the economic expert, Diaa Mohsen, also went to, who explained that “what is rumored about the stability of the US dollar exchange rate in the local market is a lie that some of those who ride the government ship are trying to promote, because the citizen knows that when the Prime Minister presented his government program to the Iraqi Council of Representatives, one of his priorities was to reduce the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, and many pages were created to promote this topic, but to no avail,” he said.
Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Mohsen attributed the rise in the US dollar exchange rate in the local market to a number of reasons that the Central Bank of Iraq could not address.
Either because it knows these reasons (and this is a disaster) but it cannot confront those responsible for this rise, or because it does not know these reasons (and this disaster is greater than the previous one) because the Central Bank of Iraq is entrusted with the money of the Iraqi people and not following up on this money and its spending doors is a breach of trust, he said.
He added, "Therefore, the talk about the stability of the US dollar in the local market is not true, because everyone knows that the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar occurred during the Eid al-Adha holiday, and there is a relatively long holiday. In addition to that, Iraqi traders have begun to use other methods than smuggling the dollar out of Iraq, which is represented by buying gold and smuggling it."
He continued, "In general, we do not believe that the monetary authority, with its confusion in taking measures, can control the exchange rate of the US dollar, nor do the executive authority's measures have the ability to limit currency smuggling operations, whether foreign currency or gold. As for prices, they will not exceed 1,500 dinars per dollar and will not fall below 1,450 dinars per dollar."
While the economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Shaikhli, believes that “the fluctuation in the dollar price is a natural matter, and it continues from time to time as a result of being affected by the smallest details, including the departure and return of pilgrims, so the price will remain between 1450 and 1500 dinars continuously, and the fluctuation between these two numbers is a natural thing.”
Al-Shaikhli pointed out during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, "There are some residents abroad who control the currency by issuing and withdrawing the dollar when anything happens inside Iraq, taking advantage of opportunities to manipulate its price. This situation exists in all countries of the world and may be very clear in Iraq because we have not witnessed this experience before, but this remains a natural issue, and we should not worry about it, but if it continues for a long time, it can then be considered an abnormal event." LINK
Article: "Advisor to the Association of Banks:The third strategy of the Central Bank is a new methodology for financial and banking reform" The Central Bank is prepared to achieve all goals in the second half of 2024 and the years of 2025 and 2026. ...these are from the original white papers that we talked about a couple years back. This article is the first indication that the white papers are the guiding light to the CBI's progress toward financial stability and banking reforms that aligns with International banking standards.
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The four factors that have or can affect the Iraqi dinar currency...The first...is the '24 budget...presents a significant issue for Iraq. The World Bank's assessment that Iraq needs an oil price of $90/barrel to meet budget requirements is a stark contrast to the current oil price of around $80...This ongoing issue boils down to how the World Bank reviews financial data and how Iraq view the same data. The second factor...until 2014 Iraq almost always created jobs for college graduates...In the eyes of Iraq, a government career is part of the benefits of being an oil rich county...One reason the budget is so large is that Iraq is budgeting for over 700,000 new government jobs.
The third factor...there are two exchange rates in Iraq...The official rate is round 1310 to $1.00. The market rate...fluctuates higher around, 1450 to $1.00 and cause issues, even protests. The market rate is the rate at which people live day-to-day... Because Iran and Syria need and want US dollars the US Federal Reserve has encouraged Iraq to rely more on the Iraqi dinar than the US dollar. This effort keeps Iraq out of trouble with the US Federal Reserve and the Department of Treasury...The issue of the two exchange rates is expected to be resolved over time. As of January 1, 2024 all transactions are mandated to be conducted in Iraqi dinars and the gap between the official exchange rate and the market value is anticipated to decrease, offering a sense of stability
...This is the most concerning issue that is brewing. All oil revenue paid to OPEC is in US dollars...Iraq's oil revenue is received by the US Federal Reserve first and then allocated to Iraq...The fact there are backroom talks over the position of OPEC going forward leaves [us] concerned for Iraq's Financial safety especially if the country wants to receive oil revenues in the dinar currency. However this would be one of the best steps to strengthen Iraq's currency...OPECs power is being threatened from within and this could lead to an uncomfortable situation for Iraq.