Wednesday, September 11, 2024
LATEST FROM PIMPY, 11 SEPT
Pimpy
Article: "The parallel market will be overturned. Sources: Upcoming decisions from he central bank that will confuse the markets and raise exchange rate."
It's interesting they don't say which exchange rate...
Quote: "He stated the decisions are likely to raise the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market..." When they say raise the dollar exchange rate, that's not good for us. That means the dollar is rising up against the dinar...On the black market people are getting 1505 dinars for every $1.00... which is much higher than the 1320 for every dollar, the official exchange rate...
It's getting out of whack again. As it gets harder and harder to get the US dollar, you're going to see the black market really start to increase. I'm curious to see what kind of decisions the central bank is going to make...
PIMPY CC NOTES HIGHLIGHTS, 10 SEPT
Summary
Iraq is undergoing economic reforms, particularly in the gas sector, while the Central Bank plans to adjust the exchange rate amid rising dollar values.
Highlights
- 🇮🇶 Iraq is implementing significant reforms in the gas sector.
- 💰 New investments aim to improve oil and gas infrastructure.
- 🔄 Central Bank decisions may raise the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market.
- 📈 Black market values are increasing, indicating currency scarcity.
- ⚖️ Discussions around lowering the dinar’s exchange rate continue.
- 🔍 Monitoring expectations around the Central Bank’s upcoming moves is crucial.
- 📊 Inflation concerns persist as foreign exchange markets fluctuate.
Key Insights
- 💡 Reform Potential: Iraq’s focus on gas investments reflects a strategic move to rectify past losses, enhancing economic stability.
- 🔧 Infrastructure Upgrades: Modernizing outdated oil and gas technology is essential for operational efficiency and attracting foreign investments.
- 📉 Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Central Bank’s potential adjustments could create volatility in the exchange rate, impacting investor sentiment.
- 📉 Parallel Market Growth: The increase in black market rates highlights the challenges the government faces in stabilizing the dinar against the dollar.
- 🤔 Economic Predictions: Speculation around whether the dinar will be devalued or strengthened reflects uncertainty in Iraq’s economic policy.
- 🏦 Central Bank Strategies: The Central Bank’s actions are critical to curbing currency smuggling and ensuring a balanced foreign exchange market.
- 🔍 Ongoing Monitoring: Investors should stay informed about Central Bank decisions and market trends to make sound investment choices.
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Impact of Iraq Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Decisions on Dollar Exchange Rates, 11 SEPT
Impact of Iraq Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Decisions on Dollar Exchange Rates
In September 2024, the Central Bank of Iraq introduced new decisions on foreign exchange prices and the trading of foreign currencies within the country. These decisions are expected to significantly influence the dollar exchange rates in the parallel market due to the anticipated scarcity of the US dollar.
De-Dollarisation and Economic Policy Shift
The strategic decision to shift away from the US dollar is a response to prolonged currency instability, leading to escalating prices and civil unrest over the past half-year. This transformation raises questions about the future status of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency and suggests a move towards a more balanced world economic order.
Consequences of Currency Issuance and Expenditure Increases
The issuance of Iraqi dinars, traditionally linked to the inflow of US dollars from oil sales, has reached unprecedented levels, with concerns about the value of all dinars in the market if oil prices remain low. The fluctuation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, exacerbated by US-Iraq relations and economic sanctions, highlights the significant impact of American statements on Iraq's economic situation.
Dollar Sales to Travelers and Market Disparity
In an effort to address the ongoing dollar crisis, the Central Bank of Iraq decided to allow state banks to sell US dollars to travelers at the official exchange rate in airports. This move, however, is predicted to widen the gap between the parallel market exchange rate of the US dollar and the official rate set by the Central Bank. The potential for travelers to hoard a significant portion of the cash dollars could further escalate the disparity between the parallel and official dollar rates.
Conclusion
The Central Bank of Iraq's new decisions on foreign exchange prices and trading mechanisms are likely to have a profound effect on the dollar exchange rates in the parallel market. These measures, driven by economic policy shifts and the need to stabilize the Iraqi dinar, may lead to a scarcity of US dollars and increased disparity between official and parallel market exchange rates.
The dollar crisis. Changing exchange rates will create ‘many problems’ and smuggling driven by ‘deep state’ – urgent, 11 SEPT
Baghdad Today – Baghdad
The President of the Diyala Chamber of Commerce, Mohammed Al-Tamimi, confirmed on Tuesday, September 10, 2024, that changing exchange rates will create the problems of the deep state that manages state smuggling outside the borders of Iraq.
Al-Tamimi told Baghdad Today that “the capital market suffers from great challenges and is exposed to vibrations at any moment, especially since its control capabilities are limited in most axes, with the dollar smuggling remaining until the moment, which has become a lifeline for the names of destinations representing the deep state in the country in order to perpetuate its power.”
He added that “the recent rise in the parallel market came due to speculation and the publication of shadowy news in addition to the presence of names that control a large part of liquidity,” pointing out that “talk about the Central Bank’s resort to changing the dollar exchange rates is still speculation, and if what happens, it will lead to serious problems.”
He pointed out that “without adjusting the rhythm of smuggling, the difference between the official and parallel price will remain high,” stressing that “the price difference generates billions of dinars in the pockets of many parties and forces.”
It is noteworthy that a banking source reported on Monday (September 9, 2024) that confusion occurred within the foreign exchange markets, while their prices were likely to rise.
The source told Baghdad today that “the Central Bank will issue new decisions on foreign exchange prices and the way it is traded inside Iraq.”
He added that “these decisions are likely to raise the dollar exchange rates in the parallel market due to the scarcity of the currency.”
The source said that “the aim of these decisions is to reduce the smuggling of currency or its monopoly in the hands of the weak souls.”
Dollar exchange rates witnessed a new rise in the two main exchanges and domestic markets for the second day in a row.
LATEST FROM MARKZ, 11 SEPT
MarkZ
[via PDK]
...article from Baghdad today: “It will turn the parallel market upside down-
Sources: Expected decisions from the Central Bank will confuse markets and raise exchange rates”
When they say raise exchange rates…they are talking “in the wrong direction”...
So if one US dollar now equals 1310 dinar…it will go to one US dollar equals 1500 dinar or so.
So what they are going to do is have an auction on US dollars. They are planning on injecting more US dollars into the markets and buy dinar off of the streets.
“To help support the exchange rate” is the claim. And to help clean up the sanctions and money laundering
Think about this. It will hurt the value of the dinar temporarily but allows them to buy it at a discount through major auctions. Suck trillions more dinar off the streets…What a great prep going into a re-valuation. It will help them justify a higher value. This may be major for us.
This is my theory and I think it makes sense.
Comment: Sounds like bad news to me…like they won’t RV for weeks now.
MarkZ: If auctions are immediate - they could be ready in a day or two. I believe they will move forward quickly on this... Remember Sudani said just last week that they plan to revalue this year during his administration….I think the timing is great and they are setting the stage.
MELANIE HINDS CC NOTES HIGHLIGHTS, 11 SEPT
Summary
Recent developments indicate Iraq is planning a currency revaluation under PM Sudani, with key insights from financial experts and upcoming economic reforms.
Highlights
- 💰 PM Sudani confirms plans for currency revaluation.
- 🎥 Baghdad installs screens for currency swap announcement.
- 📈 Economic policies aim to stabilize the Iraqi Dinar.
- 🏦 Major banks set to handle Dinar exchanges in the U.S. and Canada.
- 📉 Iraq maintains low inflation rates compared to neighbors..
- 🌍 Conference on Iraq’s economic future and international relations.
Key Insights
- 📊 PM Sudani’s administration is focused on enhancing the Dinar’s value, signaling potential positive shifts in Iraq’s economy.
- 📺 The installation of screens for currency announcements indicates a structured approach to the currency swap, enhancing public awareness.
- ⚖️ Discussions on Central Bank policies highlight the importance of economic stability and inflation control for currency value enhancement.
- 🏦 The involvement of major banks in currency exchanges suggests a more organized financial landscape for Dinar transactions in international markets.
- 📉 Iraq’s ability to keep inflation low is essential for maintaining investor confidence and currency stability.
- 🌐 The upcoming conference could play a crucial role in shaping Iraq’s economic reforms and attracting international partnerships.
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