The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, stated that the global currency rates are determined in two main ways: floating and fixed prices, indicating that there are many local and international factors that control the strength of the currency, such as supply and demand, interest rates, inflation, growth in the local economy, trade balance, and others.
While he pointed out that the strength of the national currency is linked to its external value, specifically the exchange rate, as the external value of money is directly linked to the stability of the current account of the balance of payments, especially in the long term.
Saleh said in an interview with “Al-Sabah” followed by “Al-Eqtisad News”, that “the stability of the external value of the currency requires a balance or surplus in the current account of the balance of payments relative to the gross domestic product, which should indicate a stable state at a minimum of no less than 4 percent annually, and that achieving this goal certainly depends on a sustainable increase in the annual growth rate of the gross domestic product, and exports exceeding imports within the country’s trade balance.”
Dr. Saleh pointed out that if “the country has the capacity to export goods and services more than it imports, this enhances the value of the national currency, especially the external value of the currency itself, and here the economy indicates a positive state, in addition to the availability of supporting foreign reserves that represent the main buffer against potential external factors and their effects on the overall economic situation.”
The government advisor also explained that “foreign reserves express the ability to maintain the stability of the external value of money, i.e. the stability of the exchange rate, including the strength of the commercial efficiency of reserves, which should cover the money supply in the broad sense, and more than 75 percent of that supply, noting at the same time that high sovereign and private debts can weaken the business, unless there is good financial management of debts that always leads to strengthening confidence in the national currency.”
Saleh pointed out that “the other aspect that is linked to the value and stability of the currency is the internal value of the national currency. Just as we talk about the stability of the external value of the currency, i.e. the exchange rate and its exchange power with other currencies, the internal value of the currency is the other aspect of the stability and strength of the currency. Here, the value of the national currency is directly linked to the general level of prices, i.e. the inflation index.” He explained, “If the general level of prices means the strength of goods and services expressed in money, then there is a correlation between price stability and the value of the national currency itself. This requires the availability of a wise monetary policy undertaken by central banks that makes the growth in the money supply commensurate with the growth in the gross domestic product or national income.”
The speaker noted that “the quantity theory of money is based on the principle of the neutrality of money, which holds that the cause of inflation in the long run is money itself, as growth in the money supply that is not proportional to growth in the gross domestic product leads to either inflation or contraction in the growth of the general price level. Therefore, the effect of money on the overall economy, as addressed by the quantity theory of money, means that if the amount of money in the economy increases, and there is no parallel increase in economic output, this will lead to an increase in the general price level.” link