“The dollar is leaking”… Central Bank sales in numbers and an expert raises several questions, 25 MAY

“The dollar is leaking”… Central Bank sales in numbers and an expert raises several questions

A monetary master brought up a few issues in regards to the National Bank of Iraq’s dollar deals and their examination with earlier years.

Manar Al-Obaidi said in an explanation, a duplicate of which was gotten by , “By checking on the National Bank’s deals of the dollar, both money and settlements, it is noticed that the bank’s deals of unfamiliar cash money to the neighborhood market were not significantly impacted in 2023, which is the year where the emergency of American limitations on dollar deals started.” “.

He added, “As per National Bank information on unfamiliar money deals to neighborhood showcases, the worth of dollar cash deals in 2023, the time of the dollar emergency, added up to 8.4 billion US dollars, taking note of that the typical unfamiliar money deals of the dollar from 2006 until 2022 added up to 6.1 billion bucks.”

He brought up that “the National Bank’s deals of money are higher than the typical deals of the National Bank over every one of the previous years, and the proportion of money deals to add up to unfamiliar cash deals in 2023 was 25%, while the typical proportion of money deals to add up to unfamiliar cash deals was over Expansion of years (2006-2022) 18.7%.

According to Al-Obaidi, “What actually decreased and was affected were the Central Bank’s sales of dollars through the remittance window, as the value of the Central Bank’s sales through the remittance window for the past year amounted to 25 billion dollars, while the average foreign exchange sales of dollars from 2006 to 2022 was 31 billion US dollars and amounted to The highest value of the Central Bank’s sales from the remittance window in 2019, amounting to 45 billion dollars

He made sense of, “From these numbers, obviously what influences the swapping scale in the neighborhood market is the abatement or expansion in the national bank’s deals of unfamiliar money through the settlement window, and not cash deals, which were not significantly impacted over the earlier years.”

The financial master called attention to, “In light of these numbers, two inquiries emerge. The initial is: In the event that most of the National Bank’s deals of unfamiliar money over the course of the years from 2006 to 2023 were through the settlement window, at a pace of 84% of the National Bank’s complete deals, then, at that point, what is the wellspring of unfamiliar cash?” Which was readily available in the nearby marketplaces? For what reason was the equal conversion standard impacted by the settlement deals window assuming the interest was to cover the interior need, considering that the settlement window deals convey hard money outside Iraq?

He said, “The deals of the National Bank through the money window from 2006 until 2023 added up to in excess of 113 billion US dollars, and where was this mass of hard cash consumed? Was everything consumed external Iraq to cover the movement costs of Iraqis? Or on the other hand was it finished to cover explicit kinds of dealers that were not Could you at any point enter the outer exchange window, or was it utilized for different purposes?

Al-Obaidi proceeded, “These information and questions require a profound examination to understand what the unfamiliar cash cycle is in Iraq and who is liable for the proceeded with interest for it in the nearby market in spite of the great settlement window. Does Iraq truly require cash deals of the dollar adding up to $9 billion yearly, and what are the purposes behind this interest? Is it truly to cover unfamiliar exchange with nations that are disallowed from managing?

The National Bank’s administration plans to step by step drop the dollar closeout during the year 2024, prompting its finished scratch-off before the year’s over, and to keep up with it for review and factual purposes, with an end goal to empower Iraqi banks to endlessly lay out strong financial associations with the worldwide and local financial area to accomplish the moderation of the Iraqi financial area and full responsibility. in accordance with international requirements and standards.

Iraq depends on the stage for selling money straightforwardly to neighborhood banks and organizations, which was recently known as the everyday dollar closeout, as one of the components for saving the worth of the Iraqi dinar and battling speculative tasks in the equal market.

"RV UPDATE" BY FRANK26, 25 MAY

  Frank26  

 The problem is you don't see any of these contracts open do you? 

 ...No, all of these contracts are sitting there waiting and waiting for what?  For Sudani to pull the trigger.  What is the trigger?  

The lynchpin that will activate the contract and readjust the value according to the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, where the contract was signed in the Iraqi dinar value but to match their [contract holder's] currency.  Brilliant... These signed guaranteed contracts will adjust to the calculation of the IQD value...These foreign currencies will not be calculated into the new exchange rate until the new Iraqi dinar exchange rate hits Forex...

A second set of books is a normal business action.  Many companies, many firms for financial projections, for balances, for audit purposes, for changes whatever it may be, run a second set of books.  The second set of books is simple business practice.  It's not illegal unless you're doing it illegally under the table...This second set of books is not hidden...they [Iraq] expose it [their second second set of books] to the right people, IMF, World Bank, US Treasury...

Bold Announcement By Al Sudani About Iraqi Dinar Today 2024🔥iraqi dinar ...

Defense One urges Iraq and U.S. to forge long-term anti-terrorism agreement24 MAY

Defense One urges Iraq and U.S. to forge long-term anti-terrorism agreement

Shafaq News/ Iraq and the United States should reach a "smart and long-term" agreement to combat terrorism. The Defense One reported.

Christopher P. Costa, a member of The Soufan Center board of directors and an adjunct associate professor with Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program suggested in an article on the Dfence one that despite all the goodwill between Washington and Baghdad, future bilateral ties will likely be shaped by terrorism and Iranian-backed proxies. 

“I’ve long been concerned that a pivot to great power competition could overcorrect U.S. attention and resources away from counterterrorism priorities, and indeed it has. Still, the rebalancing of U.S. national security focus can’t be binary; it is not an either-or proposition. We must focus on counterterrorism and on global competition, while leveraging allies as strategic partners. Fortunately, any setbacks in Iraq can be reversed by strengthening U.S. counterterrorism ties with Baghdad.” Costa said. 

The writer indicated the principle of “strategic empathy” promoted by retired general and former White House national security advisor H.R. McMaster to show how the U.S.-Iraqi partnership can weather the difficulties of today’s competition. 

“Iraq’s political and human terrain requires Prime Minister al-Sudani to navigate multifaceted security challenges and combustible internal pressures—exacerbated by Iranian proxies and their influence. The U.S., on the other hand, must view Baghdad diplomacy through a prism of Iraq’s political geography, particularly in the kind of high-stakes competition that is playing out across the Middle East.” He said.

“Leading up to his Washington engagements, Prime Minister al-Sudani lucidly expressed his understanding of the complexities of building a long-term sustainable partnership with the U.S. His region is beset by war, terrorism, proxies, and even sporadic hostage-taking. al-Sudani is keenly aware of the delicate balance Iraq must maintain between the U.S. and hostile armed groups, while at the same time seeking prosperity and security for the Iraqi people.”

Costa considered some pro-Iranian Shiite forces such as Kataib Hezbollah “may have stronger links to Iran than to Iraq. Knowing this, Washington and Baghdad have to carefully manage their strategic relationship for the long haul.” 

“Accordingly, strategic investments in the U.S.-Iraqi counterterrorism partnership must continue despite any setbacks. Of the many undercurrents with Iraqi stability and security, it’s crucial not to overlook the Iraqi Counterterrorism Service, or CTS. Maintaining and continuing support to the CTS is crucial to the U.S.-Iraqi relationship. The CTS is an organization built and supported by the U.S. and must remain an enduring strategic partner. Still, Iraq will need to protect its counter-terrorism structure against undue Iranian meddling and interference.”

He pointed out that “all of the counterterrorism successes that Iraq and the U.S. have had in its fight against ISIS, the coalition arrayed against ISIS has not beat it decisively. Yet, both President Biden and Prime Minister al-Sudani recognize that Iraq must have U.S. support to ensure that ISIS can never again reconstitute to threaten Iraq, the international community, or the U.S.”

“Commentators were not entirely wrong to suggest that Iran's retaliatory strike against Israel overshadowed Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani's visit to Washington. The week-long visit this past April was supposed to focus on expanding bilateral ties, and new economic opportunities for investments, not an escalating regional war. But that’s the salutary point: Iraq’s importance, even if uncomfortably wedged in between warring states, has long term potential to bring much-needed stability to a region needing it.” 

Costa added, “In light of all that is at play in Iraq, a bilateral strategic partnership is more important now than ever. That should be the take away from Prime Minister al-Sudani's visit to Washington. But more than anything else, terrorism and proxies will remain a spoiler for well-intended policy objectives. A vibrant counterterrorism partnership with the U.S. is the appropriate counterweight.” 

“But the danger of escalation in Iraq remains. Just one day after al-Sudani returned from the U.S., Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah said armed groups had decided to resume its attacks after noting little progress on talks held on U.S. troop presence during al-Sudani’s visit to Washington.” 

He considered, in terms of hostage-taking and counterterrorism going forward, the United States and Iraq have three key considerations:

“First, Washington should signal its long-term commitment to Iraq by deepening its understanding of their complex security challenges and acknowledging the tensions between sovereignty and a continuing, mutually beneficial counterterrorism partnership with the United States.”

“Second, Baghdad can signal the strategic importance of CTS and ensure that the service is not politicized or infected by Iranian meddling. Along with this, Iraq’s security and intelligence services must create a security environment where no foreigners are kidnapped in Baghdad, and where hostage-takers are brought to justice.” 

“Third, as Dr. Matthew Levitt presciently observed, maintaining a sound counterterrorism posture is the antithesis of “endless wars in terms of size, cost, and risk, and should be pursued in support of international coalitions and local allies.” With counterterrorism partnerships ending abruptly in places like Chad and Niger, Iraq must remain a U.S. priority.”

“To hedge, in counterterrorism, is to make smart investments for the future that reduces the risks of more instability and terrorism. A smart, appropriately scoped, long-term counterterrorism partnership in Iraq is therefore a bet worth making.” The article concluded.

"This Bank just told us about when they are going to move onto the QFS" BY GOLDILOCKS, 24 MAY

 GOLDILOCKS

👆Oh My God. This Bank just told us about when they are going to move onto the QFS.

First action date: June 21, 2024 before 3:00 p.m. MT

Second action date: June 24, 2024 for the remaining steps. 

Is important to note that this is one bank's timeline, but I can't help from notice that this one is before the June 30th, 2024 laws that are taking effect on crypto regulations and stablecoins at the end of the month.

© Goldilocks

China's Oil Gains in Iraq: Strategic Win or Potential Quagmire?, 24 MAY

China's Oil Gains in Iraq: Strategic Win or Potential Quagmire?

Shafaq News/ An international report warned that China is hastening to fill the power vacuum in Iraq by improving its energy security and global influence, suggesting that the results might be counterproductive even if Iraq is the primary beneficiary.

South China Morning Post said that Chinese firms recently won the lion’s share of licences for oil and gas exploration that Iraq solicited to wean its power plants off natural gas from Iran.

“The news demonstrates China’s drive to secure energy supplies as it struggles to reverse slowing growth at home. Beijing is seizing opportunities in the Middle East left by the West’s conflicting ambitions to deter foes and reassure allies. Wang Yi, China’s chief diplomat, has doubled down on the government’s pro-Palestinian stance.” The report said.

“Meanwhile, American and European companies are apprehensive about making long-term investments in war-ravaged countries with rampant corruption despite these nations’ lucrative reserves of gas and oil. They aren’t competing with China for oil contracts. Americans gave lives, time and money yet China is benefiting.”

However, China’s strategy in Iraq could prove to be a negative-sum game on many fronts – political, trade, influence, and more – given the power dynamics in the region.

“Many treacherous hazards confront statecraft, as the United States and Europe well know. China will face challenges in Iraq that are the result of antagonisms that have deepened over the past few centuries. The late US statesman Henry Kissinger wrote in 2014 that in the Middle East “political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national interest disputes merge”.”

According to the report, today, the war in Gaza promises an impossible outcome. Throughout the Middle East, terrorism erupts in societies roiled by deep-seated religious tensions that unstable governments cannot defuse. Gulf countries are rising in power and ambition as they assert their independence.

“China isn’t absolved from these difficulties by stressing neutrality and dialogue facilitation while keeping its distance from local groups. It succeeds in Iraq because it doesn’t get bogged down in internal politics. Can China continue to prosper if it doesn’t take sides with local actors?”

“History shows repeatedly that geostrategic power vacuums are like black holes. Countries leverage various means – often economic incentives – to gain influence when rivals partially retrench or collapse, but not always. Sometimes remaining on the sidelines is a better strategy.” The report pointed out.

US President Joe Biden made note of China’s growing Middle East presence in 2022 while visiting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran,” Biden said. “And we’ll seek to build on this moment with active, principled American leadership.”

Estimates of US troops stationed in the Middle East go up to more than 50,000, with Qatar hosting the largest US base. There was unprecedented security cooperation between Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi after Iran targeted Israel with missile and drone attacks last month. In comparison, China’s foothold in the region is not as strong.

China and Iraq last year marked 65 years of bilateral relations which began after Iraq’s coup of 1958, when General Abdul Karim Qasim deposed the Hashemite monarchy and Beijing recognized his “revolutionary” government. Throughout Iraq’s war with Iran in the 1980s, China sold weapons to both sides.

“Even with those efforts, China’s relations with Iraq were limited until the last two decades. Alongside Beijing’s growing need for oil, factors such as Iraq’s need for liquidity, reconstruction following years of conflict, the effects of low oil prices and “rightsizing” of US forces in Iraq pushed the two closer together.”

The report listed that the recent milestones in their relationship are many. A 2009 agreement gave China National Petroleum Corporation a 37 per cent stake in the Rumaila oilfield, Iraq’s largest. By 2013, China had a hand in more than half of Iraq’s daily oil output. In 2010, the Chinese government cancelled 80 per cent of debt Iraq owed Beijing. Videos in 2015 showed the Iraqi military operating Chinese supplied CH-4 drones.

Iraq and China signed an oil-for-reconstruction deal in 2019, with Beijing funding infrastructure projects in exchange for 100,000 barrels per day. As of February, Chinese firms oversee two-thirds of Iraq’s oil production. Meanwhile, Iraq was the top target for Belt and Road Initiative financing in 2021, receiving US$10.5 billion for infrastructure projects. Last year, Iraq’s central bank announced it would settle trade with China directly in yuan, though the oil trade was excluded.

Entanglements like these inevitably become labyrinthine, with the objectives lost and unravelling increasingly difficult. Like machines with many moving parts, maintenance and repairs are needed more frequently and pose greater difficulty. Add to that the complications from uncertainties, volatility and unforeseen events, such as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi dying in a helicopter crash.

“All this leaves China with a difficult balancing act: it must mind its partners’ interests and distance itself from local actors, while keeping an eye on mounting economic vulnerabilities at home. Beijing could find itself elbowed out of Iraq as Gulf countries – especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – provide huge investments in an effort to amass regional power, ensure stability and isolate Iran.” The report concluded.

Some of these same Gulf countries are signing deals with China as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, yet their ambitions will limit Beijing’s room to act unilaterally. Regional instability, such as the Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, also raises the prospect of China needing cooperation with the US, Europe and Gulf countries to secure the flow of oil and gas while protecting its investments. That adds complications to fierce tensions with the West over trade.

Much like the West now, China will find itself increasingly seeing progress swept away by centuries-old hostilities. Beijing might have taken on more than it can manage.

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