THE SEAT OF POWER… WHEN GEOPOLITICS IMPOSES NOURI AL-MALIKI AS THE LAST RESORT TO DETER WASHINGTON
Iraq is going through a very complex political phase, in which constitutional entitlements are intertwined with regional and international pressures, in the absence of full consensus among the main political forces, and Baghdad’s attempt to maintain its political and security balance amidst accumulating internal crises.
Haider Salman, a researcher in Iraqi and international affairs, confirmed in his interview with “Baghdad Today” that “the Iraqi political scene is witnessing a complex situation of entanglement and lack of clarity. Despite the fact that the Sunni component’s entitlement to the presidency of the parliamentary system passed relatively smoothly, the file of the presidency of the republic is still stuck as a result of the continued disputes within the Kurdish house and the failure to reach an agreement so far.”
Salman added that “the Shiite system, which is responsible for choosing the head of government, seems more stable this time, as the data indicates that the position of Prime Minister will go to Nouri al-Maliki, in a precedent that is the first of its kind, as this entitlement is taking place without any significant complications, in light of Muqtada al-Sadr’s withdrawal from the political process.”
The researcher in Iraqi and international affairs continued, “Iraq today is in the heart of a regional and international storm, as a result of the intensifying competition between the Eastern and Western camps on its borders and within its territory. Iran – supported by major Eastern international powers, representing an advanced stage of the intersection of Chinese and Russian interests – faces escalating challenges due to the ongoing American threats, in addition to economic pressures and attempts to weaken it internally and externally.”
Salman pointed out that “the continued escalation in the Syrian arena raises serious concerns within Iraq due to its direct repercussions on the internal security situation, especially since most of the terrorist organizations that were active within Iraqi territory had infiltrated across the Syrian border,” noting that “external pressures on Iraq are increasing through attempts to impose dictates and interfere in its internal affairs, especially by the United States.”
The researcher concluded by saying that “Baghdad is trying to adopt a balanced policy based on calming the parties and avoiding direct clashes, and in light of its preoccupation with its internal political, economic and security crises, it seems unable to engage deeply in external axes, contenting itself with trying to maintain its fragile stability amidst raging regional conflicts.”
It is worth noting that Nouri al-Maliki served as Prime Minister for two consecutive terms between 2006 and 2014, a period that witnessed the peak of sectarian conflict, the rise of al-Qaeda, and later the emergence of ISIS, before his government ended amidst political and popular protests and significant internal and external pressures. Since then, al-Maliki has remained a key player within the Shia political establishment, leading the State of Law Coalition and later the Coordination Framework, while maintaining considerable parliamentary and political influence in the formation of successive governments.
The withdrawal of the Shiite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr from the political process, along with the resignations of his parliamentary bloc and the rise of the Coordination Framework forces within Parliament, has redrawn the balance of power within the Shiite arena and opened the door for the return of traditional names to the forefront of nominations for the premiership, including Maliki, amidst fierce competition between regional projects to influence the shape of the next Iraqi government and its policies towards the files of Iran, America, Syria and the Gulf.