Preserving foreign reserves.. An Iraqi academic study answers the question “The stability of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar” , 27 MARCH

  Preserving foreign reserves.. An Iraqi academic study answers the question “The stability of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar”

3/25/2024

At a time when the price of the dollar is still fluctuating between high and low, forcing the market to live in a state of some kind of confusion, because the hard currency constitutes an important tool in Iraqi trade, as it is a trade that depends on imports for most of the products in the local market, On Monday, a researcher whose master’s thesis was discussed at the College of Administration and Economics at Tikrit University put forward some possible solutions for controlling the price of the dollar, as his thesis came about the role of the central bank and the currency selling window, their role in stabilizing the dinar against the dollar, and the importance of maintaining foreign currency reserves. .

Researcher Ahmed Abdullah Akil told Shafaq News Agency, “The study aims to know and measure the extent of the impact of some of the central bank’s tools in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar during the period (2004 - 2022) in order to know the places of imbalance and negatives that hinder achieving Stability of the value of the local currency according to what is appropriate to the nature of the Iraqi economy, as the goal of maintaining the value of the local currency was the primary goal of the bank with the aim of maintaining the price level, which is essentially linked to the exchange rate of the local dinar against the US dollar.

He added, "The study variables were analyzed and measured according to the (Eviews 13) program, and it was found that there is a positive and significant relationship between some of the central bank's tools as independent variables and the official and parallel exchange rates as dependent variables in the short term, with some negative and positive correlations to some variables in the long term, as It was noted that some tools were ineffective in influencing the currency exchange rate, such as the legal reserve, the rediscount rate, and open market operations, but the effect of some of them was limited to inflation.

He pointed out that "while the effect of the interest rate and the window was positive on the value of the local currency as a result of its reduction in the nominal exchange rate, this indicates the ability of the central bank to influence the stability of the exchange rate of the local currency against the foreign currency, especially through the currency selling window throughout the study period, except for some In the last years of the study period, the nominal exchange rate rose again, and so did the parallel market, by decision of the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank, for the purpose of confronting public expenditures and confronting the repercussions of the global health crisis related to the Corona epidemic and the accompanying decline in oil prices, which is the main source of the dollar. America because of the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy.”

He continued: “It was also noted that the gap between the official exchange rate and its counterpart in the parallel market increased due to the increased demand for foreign currency, and the study presented a number of recommendations, the most important of which is continuing the operation of the window without excessive use of foreign reserves and diversifying the sources of obtaining foreign currency by pushing the wheel of development and activating the real sector.” Industry and agriculture, in order to achieve a reduction in imports, which reduces the depletion of the currency, in addition to tightening control measures to prevent the smuggling of foreign currency and actions that affect the supply of it, which contributes to the stability of the local currency exchange rate.”

He stressed that "continuing to operate the currency selling window without compromising on foreign reserves, and diversifying the sources of obtaining foreign currency so that the exchange rate does not remain hostage to oil prices as it is almost the only source of obtaining foreign currency."

He stated that "advancing the wheel of development in Iraq, activating the real sector, revitalizing industry and agriculture to reduce imports, relieving pressure on foreign dollar reserves, distancing the Central Bank from political pressures, granting it the necessary powers to deal with fluctuations in the economic situation, including exchange rate fluctuations, and tightening supervisory measures to prevent foreign currency smuggling." abroad so as not to affect the supply of foreign currency, and thus the value of the local currency.”   LINK