To Generalize The "Iraqi Truce"... American-Iranian Talks To Prevent The Escalation Of The Conflict, 21 MARCH

 To Generalize The "Iraqi Truce"... American-Iranian Talks To Prevent The Escalation Of The Conflict

2024-03-20 Shafaq News/ The English newspaper “The National” reported that the ongoing indirect talks between the United States and Iran seek to build on the undeclared truce understanding in Iraq with the Iraqi armed factions, by expanding it to become effective on other fronts in the region.

The newspaper indicated, in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency, that the Iranian media confirmed the occurrence of the recent rounds of indirect talks with the United States, but said that it focused on the issue of lifting the sanctions imposed on Iran, which is believed to be the main incentive for Tehran’s increasing initiative to reduce the conflict. Regional.

The report quoted an informed source as saying, commenting on the talks, that “there are clear American efforts for the Iranians to maintain the relative restraint they are exercising on their part, especially on the Iraqi front, where an unofficial truce has been ongoing for more than a month.”

The report stated that Washington recently renewed the exemption from sanctions that gives Iran access to $10 billion in frozen funds, an exemption that allows Tehran to use electricity revenues from Iraq to support the budget and pay off debts, and comes 4 months after a similar exemption.

The report quoted a source close to the Hezbollah group in Lebanon as saying that this exemption appears to be one of the indicators that the administration of President Joe Biden “is showing the extent of its willingness to win over the Iranians in this sensitive period of the war in Gaza, and with the drums of electoral war beginning to beat in The United States,” adding, “It does not seem that Biden is ready for a major adventure that might consume more of his political capital.”

After the report pointed out that Washington and Tehran had for years engaged in talks through mediators in Amman, Geneva and other cities related to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program and regional spheres of influence, it said that the recent talks in the Sultanate of Oman turned towards maintaining regional security and finding ways to prevent the outbreak of war. Widespread attacks in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on October 7, which sparked Israel's war in Gaza and led to the mobilization of armed factions allied with Iran throughout the region.

The report stated that armed factions in Iraq and Syria launched attacks on American forces in the context of a coordinated front since the outbreak of the war in Gaza to pressure for an immediate ceasefire in the Palestinian territories.

The report continued, citing sources in Baghdad and Beirut, saying that the last strike carried out by these factions was on February 4, adding that the cessation of attacks against American forces was part of an “undeclared truce” that included Tehran and the Iraqi government, after the attack that killed 3 Americans were killed on the Jordanian-Syrian border, and Washington attributed them to the "Islamic resistance in Iraq" supported by Iran, which includes the "Hezbollah Brigades."

The report noted that Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani then traveled to Baghdad and met with faction leaders in order to push for a quick breakthrough. Shortly thereafter, Kataib Hezbollah announced the suspension of its military operations against American forces in Syria and Iraq to prevent “any embarrassment” to the government in Baghdad, while a source in Beirut close to the anti-Israel front said, "It is difficult not to imagine that the Americans are part of that."

The report continued that Hezbollah in Lebanon is waging a controlled war of attrition against Israel, while the United States has devoted great efforts to achieving a truce and preventing the escalation of the conflict, as such a war could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and Israel, and may ignite a broader regional confrontation.

The report added that while Hezbollah rejects attempts mediated by the United States to call for a truce before reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, the party has also not shown much interest in involving itself in a major war with Israel, while Israel carried out deeper attacks inside Lebanon in In recent weeks, with the aim of removing the party from the south using a tactic that Israeli officials described as either diplomacy or force.

The report quoted sources in Beirut close to the ongoing diplomatic efforts, saying that arrangements to begin negotiations to end the border conflict between Lebanon and Israel are progressing despite fears of a large-scale war with Hezbollah, as the deal is brokered by the American envoy Amos Hockstein and the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri. He is the head of the Amal Movement, which is close to Hezbollah, as there is no direct American communication with Hezbollah.

According to two political sources close to Hezbollah, Ismail Qaani traveled to Lebanon several times in recent months in order to meet with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and discuss ways to continue pressure on Israel without entering into a wide-scale war. But one of the sources said, “The Iranians did not go to tell Nasrallah: We do not want to get involved in the war with Israel.” Instead, they went to coordinate the work of the Quds Force (with Hezbollah).”

The report stated that American and Iranian officials told the Financial Times last week that the United States held secret talks with Iran last January in the Sultanate of Oman in order to try to persuade Tehran to use its influence over the Houthi “Ansar Allah” movement in Yemen in order to Ending attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

However, the report said that a high-ranking Western diplomat, who recently toured the front lines between Israel and Lebanon, questioned Washington’s ability to limit the regional impact of the conflict in Gaza, especially in Lebanon, saying that “the regional war is already continuing,” referring to the front. Between Hezbollah and Israel, adding that the Gaza war revealed Israel's weakness in the face of any multi-faceted attacks by factions allied with Iran, as Hezbollah has more military spending and missile capabilities than Hamas.

The report continued that the existential threat posed by Hezbollah's attacks after last October 7, which appeared in the inability of tens of thousands of Israeli residents to return to their northern border towns, highlights Israel's motives for pushing its enemy to retreat.

The report quoted the informed source as saying, “The only way to deal with this threat is to significantly remove Hezbollah from the border, and it does not matter whether the Americans agree to that, because the Israelis do not listen to them anyway.”  Translated by: Shafaq News  LINK