AN ECONOMIST WARNS: IRAQ IS IN THE EYE OF THE STORM, AND TEMPORARY FIXES ARE NO LONGER EFFECTIVE.
Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi warned on Tuesday that Iraq has entered a post-economic crisis phase, indicating that the country is now in the “eye of a real hurricane,” and that patchwork solutions or what he described as “painkillers” are no longer effective after the situation spiraled out of control .
Al-Ubaidi said in a Facebook post, which was followed by Al-Sa’a Network, that “Iraq is no longer in the stage of warning or forecasting, but is in the heart of the storm itself, where no patchwork solutions or temporary painkillers are of any use,” noting that “things have gotten out of control, and Iraq today is in the vortex of a real hurricane .”
He asked: “Is there a crisis? What comes after the hurricane? What comes after the flood?” He pointed out that “this harsh test will reveal Iraq’s ability to overcome its ordeal. If it manages to maintain its unity and social cohesion, then it means that it is stronger than the economic and political challenges it faces. Failure to overcome this stage, however, portends a serious social collapse and disintegration of the national fabric, and may extend to security dimensions .”
He explained that “the reality indicates that the crisis has exceeded the ability of official institutions alone to contain and address it, and has become a shared responsibility that falls on all influential parties in society,” attributing this to “the loss of trust between the state and the citizen, which is the biggest challenge facing any real reform path .”
He added that “the almost only link today between the citizen and official institutions is the ability to meet immediate financial obligations, while any talk of future plans or deep structural reforms that require painful surgical operations will be met with widespread public anger and rejection, as long as trust is not restored first .”
Al-Obaidi pointed out that “the continuation of the approach based on depleting current and future resources to secure a thin thread of stability is nearing its end,” stressing that “the ability to continue in this way has reached its final stages .”
He stressed that “there is no real way out of this spiral except through absolute candor and transparency, starting with opening the file of public budgets from the first budget after 2003 until today, passing through reopening all corruption files without exception, revealing where public funds were spent and where they went, and holding accountable everyone who was negligent or lax in this regard .”
He pointed out that “reducing the expenses of senior officials and the privileges granted to them, even if it does not constitute a radical financial solution, represents a very important moral step that contributes to reducing the gap between society and authority, and restores some of the lost trust .”
He warned that “trying to lull the public into complacency, suggesting that there is no need for real reforms, or promoting the possibility of paying dues in full and on time without cost, is nothing but inflating a bubble that is about to burst,” stressing that “every bubble, no matter how long it lasts, is destined to burst, and then the consequences will be dire and undesirable.”