DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Impact of Iraq Approving HCL Law on Iraqi Dinar Value in 2024, 17 SEPT

 Impact of Iraq Approving HCL Law on Iraqi Dinar Value in 2024

The approval of the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL) in Iraq in 2024 could have significant implications for the value of the Iraqi dinar. This law is designed to regulate the country's oil and gas sector and aims to attract more international investments. 2

Historical Context of the Iraqi Dinar

To understand how the HCL might affect the dinar, it's important to review the historical context of the currency's valuation. In December 2020, the dinar was devalued by 23%, primarily due to the fiscal crisis and the drop in oil prices. 1 This was intended to help the Ministry of Finance obtain more dinars for each dollar of oil revenue. In February 2023, there was a revaluation, increasing the value of the dinar from 1,450 to 1,310 per dollar. This revaluation was beneficial for importers but negatively impacted exporters of non-oil goods.

Current Exchange Rates and Challenges

As of September 16, 2024, Iraq is dealing with dual exchange rates. The official exchange rate is approximately 1,310 Iraqi dinars per US dollar, while the market rate is higher, at around 1,460 Iraqi dinars per US dollar, representing a 12% gap between the two rates. 1 This dual rate system has several negative effects on Iraq's economy, including slowing economic growth, encouraging corruption, and complicating fiscal policy.

Impact of Dual Exchange Rates

The existence of dual exchange rates can have the following effects: Slows economic growth: It disrupts existing contracts and discourages trade and investment both domestically and internationally. Encourages corruption:Individuals and entities can profit from the difference between the official and market rates by being paid in dollars and making payments in dinars. Complicates fiscal policy: It makes it harder for the government to manage the economy effectively.

Potential Effects of the HCL Law on the Dinar

The HCL law, by allowing foreign companies to have a share of oil output in Iraq in partnership with the government, could lead to increased foreign investment and potentially stabilize the country's economy. This, in turn, could strengthen the dinar by reducing the gap between the official and market exchange rates.

Investor-Friendly Environment

By offering improved terms and contract structures, Iraq aims to create a more investor-friendly environment. 2 This could attract more international oil companies to invest in Iraq, leading to an increase in oil production and, consequently, a boost in government revenues.

Boost in Government Revenues

An increase in oil production and foreign investment could lead to a boost in government revenues. This could potentially lead to a stronger Iraqi dinar, as the government would have more resources to manage the economy and potentially reduce the gap between the official and market exchange rates.

Conclusion

The approval of the HCL law in Iraq in 2024 could have a significant impact on the value of the Iraqi dinar. By attracting more foreign investment and potentially stabilizing the country's economy, the law could strengthen the dinar and reduce the gap between the official and market exchange rates.