A DARK FUTURE AND A SECURITY AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE… THE AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL THREATENS THE IRAQI REGIME
In the wake of technical and security meetings between Washington and Baghdad, to schedule the American withdrawal that has been leading the international coalition in Iraq since 2014, analysts find that the “possible withdrawal” may leave the country under a security risk, and that it is not yet ready to deal with the deep challenges, starting with From the “strong” factions supported by Iran, to the ISIS terrorist cells that are still present, all the way to the factions’ control over Iraq’s money and capabilities.
A report by the American newspaper “The National”, translated by Shafaq News Agency, quoted former American Special Forces officer David Whitty, who worked with the Iraqi commando forces, as saying: “They are disturbed by our strikes, but they are the ones who attacked the coalition forces first,” referring to this. 150 of the attacks targeting Americans in Iraq and Syria since last October.
The report, citing analysts, warned that history may repeat itself if American forces withdraw again, noting that when American forces withdrew in 2011, Iraqi forces lost their efficiency due to widespread corruption, as military leaders sold fuel, ammunition, and even food to achieve gains. Personal, in addition to falsifying the pension statements allocated to the military.”
The American report indicated that recent coalition reports issued by the US Inspector General still warn that many of these problems still exist, especially in the logistical aspect, which raises fears that ISIS or similar organizations may reappear if the United States withdraws. United.
The report quoted Whitty, who is also a security consultant and worked closely with the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service that led the fight against ISIS, as saying that “the current training provided by the coalition to Iraqi forces may be too limited to protect the country,” adding: “There is no communication.” “With the Iraqi security forces only through the Ministry of Defense, this is very frustrating.”
The report continued that Whitty advised the United States to continue training Iraqi forces based on the Counter-Terrorism Service model, which included small American and Iraqi units that worked together to carry out joint missions.
According to the report, Whitty is concerned that without continuous training, old problems could resurface, which could jeopardize Baghdad’s ability to confront ISIS, or Popular Mobilization Forces groups such as: Kata’ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, which warned It may overthrow the Iraqi government if Iran requests it.
While the report pointed out that Whitty’s concerns relate to the danger of the Iraqi military culture returning to its previous state, he was quoted as saying, “We saw this happen after 2011, when standards declined and things deteriorated, and it concerns me in particular with regard to the Counter-Terrorism Service and perhaps what is happening now with… Regular army.
The report stated that regardless of the threat posed by ISIS, experts warn that the conflict between the United States and Iran in Iraq is unlikely to fade if American forces withdraw.
The report quoted Michael Knights, a researcher at the American Washington Institute, as saying: “When the United States left for the last time in 2011, ISIS was growing stronger in Syria and was beginning to regain its strength in Iraq,” explaining that “this is not the situation now, ISIS.” “It is not the real threat now. The main threat to Iraq’s security is the control of the state by Iranian-backed militias and stripping it of its assets.”
According to Knights, the Popular Mobilization Forces’ takeover of the Iraqi state not only led to a lack of funding for the Counter-Terrorism Service, but also caused renewed conflict between the United States and the Popular Mobilization Forces, noting that the Popular Mobilization Forces “have penetrated the Iraqi central government, and they are integrated into all ministries now.” Not only actual ministers, but assistant ministers and deputy ministers, all men from various militias, chosen by the coordination framework.”
While the American report noted that, under the current government’s budget, funding for the Counter-Terrorism Service decreased by 14%, and the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces doubled, Knights was quoted as saying: “We needed a presence in federal Iraq in order to fight ISIS because we had an Iraqi partner.” But now there is no partner inside Iraq to fight the main threat, because the militias have taken control of the security sector.”
The report continued: “If Iraq turns into a center for regional wars carried out by the Popular Mobilization Forces, the conflict between the United States and the militias may continue and it may become easier for Washington to carry out strikes against the Mobilization Forces from outside Iraq in the event that the Americans withdraw.”
He explained that “the United States may become more capable of striking, punishing and harming those militias if they are outside Iraq,” adding that “Iraq may be exposed to fewer air strikes if the coalition collapses, because the President of the United States may be less conservative if the forces are forced to… And perhaps the embassy will have to leave,” noting that “this president may be a Republican.”
Knights concluded his speech by saying, “Economic stability will deteriorate in Iraq if the United States does not have the motivation to show restraint with regard to protecting Iraqi funds from international lawsuits, and if the United States rations Iraq’s supply of dollars because terrorist players may be viewed as they took over the country and the Ministry of Finance.”
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