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Saturday, May 23, 2026
WHEN WILL DOLLAR SHIPMENTS ARRIVE IN BAGHDAD? WASHINGTON IGNORES THE CENTRAL BANK, WHILE AL-ZIDI PRIORITIZES IT
In my view, the government of Al-Zaydi has a key opportunity to rethink Iraq’s economic model and seriously consider proposals that strengthen the country’s financial sovereignty. Iraq’s dependence on the U.S. dollar exposes it to fluctuations in U.S. policy and external control mechanisms that can impact its economic stability.
Government Advisor discusses feasibility of using Dinar instead of Dollar for oil sales
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WHEN WILL DOLLAR SHIPMENTS ARRIVE IN BAGHDAD? WASHINGTON IGNORES THE CENTRAL BANK, WHILE AL-ZIDI PRIORITIZES IT
The Asharq Bloomberg website published a report in which a senior Iraqi official, who declined to reveal his identity, stated that addressing the crisis of delayed dollar shipments from the United States to Baghdad, amounting to about $10 billion annually, will be among the priorities of Ali al-Zaidi’s government, in order to avoid destabilizing the exchange market in light of the sharp decline in oil exports due to the repercussions of the Iran war. He confirmed that the Iraqi authorities are trying to find out the reasons for the delay in the latest shipments, but the Central Bank has not yet received any response from the American side.
Earlier, the administration of US President Donald Trump suspended dollar shipments to Iraq and froze funding for security cooperation programs with Baghdad, pressuring it to dismantle Iranian-backed armed factions. The US Treasury Department blocked an air shipment of about $500 million in Iraqi oil revenues held in accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to the Wall Street Journal.
According to banking expert Mustafa Hantoush, speaking to Asharq Bloomberg, Washington is expected to resume sending shipments soon, based on a similar precedent in 2023, at a time when the International Monetary Fund expects the Iraqi economy to shrink by 6.8% this year, with central reserves amounting to $100 billion before the war.
A senior Iraqi official said that addressing the crisis of delayed dollar shipments from the United States to Baghdad will be a priority for the new government to avoid destabilizing the exchange market, especially after the sharp decline in the country’s oil exports due to the repercussions of the Iran war.
Iraq receives a portion of its oil revenues in the form of cash shipments in US dollars, estimated at around $10 billion annually. These funds are distributed in installments arriving via chartered flights at Baghdad Airport, while transfers related to financing foreign trade—which have not been affected by the delays—are managed through official banking channels.
The government official, who spoke to Asharq on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the Iraqi authorities are indeed trying to find out the reasons for the delay in the latest shipments, but the Central Bank has not yet received a response from the American side.
The US State Department confirmed in response to an inquiry from Asharq News’ Washington bureau that dollar shipments to Iraq remain “suspended.” It referred any further inquiries to the Treasury Department and the Central Bank of Iraq. The Treasury Department did not respond to Al-Sharq’s questions about the crisis, while officials at the Central Bank of Iraq could not be reached for comment.
Reuters reported in late April, citing several sources, that the administration of US President Donald Trump had halted a cash shipment worth about $500 million and suspended part of its security cooperation with Baghdad in an attempt to pressure the Iraqi government to reduce the influence of Iranian-backed armed factions, which have launched several attacks on Gulf states since the start of the conflict at the end of February in support of the regime in Tehran.
The stability of the dinar is at stake
Although the value of the shipment represents only a small fraction of the total demand for dollars in the Iraqi market, its delayed arrival and the ongoing crisis could affect the stability of the dinar and widen the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate, which has only fluctuated within a narrow range since the outbreak of the conflict. Therefore, the official confirmed that the issue will be a priority for Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi as soon as he officially assumes office. The Iraqi parliament is scheduled to vote tomorrow, Thursday, on granting confidence to the new government.
Iraq is among the countries most affected by the war in the region. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 6.8% contraction in its economy this year due to its reliance on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which account for 90% of government revenue. A senior IMF official told Asharq Al-Awsat last month that Baghdad’s options for dealing with the crisis until a new government is formed focus on reducing spending and temporarily drawing on the central bank’s reserves, which stood at approximately $100 billion before the war.
Trump had invited al-Zaidi during a phone call at the end of last month to visit Washington after the government was formed, and wished him success “in forming a new government free of terrorism that can provide a brighter future for Iraq and the United States.”
The historical roots of the crisis
Iraqi banking expert Mustafa Hantoush told Asharq that he expects Washington to resume sending dollar shipments soon. He added that the United States had previously suspended these shipments temporarily in 2023 without publicly stating the reasons.
The story of relying on the United States to send dollar shipments to Baghdad dates back to 2003, when then-US President George W. Bush issued an executive order during the American occupation following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. This order mandated that all of Iraq’s oil revenues be transferred to a special account called the “Development Fund for Iraq,” managed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ostensibly to protect the funds from lawsuits and use them for reconstruction. Since then, the executive order has been renewed annually, meaning that US approval is required before any funds can be transferred to Baghdad.
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Why the HCL May Require a Stronger Iraqi Dinar: Inflation, Cash Reduction & Monetary Reform Pressures 🇮🇶💵📉
Many people say the HCL could technically function at the current 1300 IQD exchange rate, but when you look deeper into Iraq’s monetary reforms, that argument becomes harder to defend.
Iraq has spent years trying to reduce physical cash in the streets, strengthen the banking sector, expand digital payments, control inflation, reduce dollar dependency, and maintain single-digit inflation. Flooding the economy with massive amounts of dinars — even digitally through HCL oil revenue distributions — would still expand the money supply and risk inflationary pressure, directly conflicting with the CBI’s long-term goals of monetary stability and stronger purchasing power.
This is why many believe Iraq ultimately needs a stronger and more efficient dinar before fully implementing the HCL in a meaningful way. A higher-valued currency would allow Iraq to distribute real purchasing power without injecting enormous volumes of currency into the system. It would also align with the CBI’s long-discussed “delete the zeros” project, banking modernization, de-dollarization efforts, and the push toward a more internationally integrated financial system.
At some point, the question becomes:
How can Iraq simultaneously reduce cash circulation, control inflation, modernize the banking system, and distribute meaningful oil revenues to citizens using a weak 3-zero currency without creating contradictions inside its own monetary policy? 👀💵🇮🇶
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Iraq’s Proposed Federal Council Remains Sidelined by 19-Year Legislative Impasse over Draft Oil and Gas Law
The 2007 Draft Oil and Gas Law outlines the foundational principles for establishing a Federal Council to govern Iraq's energy sector and distribute management powers between central and regional authorities. However, the comprehensive framework has never been formally enacted due to a 19-year political deadlock over revenue-sharing and the legislative control of lucrative oil fields.
The draft prepared by the Council of Ministers' Oil and Energy Committee on February 15, 2007, never became law due to nearly two decades of disagreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the federal government.
Draft Oil Law Enshrines Iraq’s Constitutional Energy Rights
The draft explicitly incorporates Article 111 of the 2005 Constitution, affirming that "Oil and gas are owned by all the people of Iraq in all the regions and governorates."
Furthermore, the draft accurately references Articles 110, 112, 114, and 115 to outline the legal distribution of authority and residual powers between federal and regional governments regarding resource management.
Proposed Federal Council to Dictate Iraq’s Energy Policy
The Federal Council is mandated with approving general energy policies and hydrocarbon strategies developed by the Ministry of Oil in coordination with producing regions.
The Council issues regulatory directives for exploration and production contracts, oversees the development of domestic oil fields and transit pipelines, and retains veto authority over any substantive modifications to these plans.
Additionally, the regulatory body is empowered to review active licensing contracts, endorse standardized development and production templates, select specific field models, and establish pre-qualification criteria for foreign energy firms, provided that any contractual revisions preserve Iraq's national equity share.
Council Authorized to Oversee Oil Exploration and Development
The Council is tasked with guaranteeing the exploration and development of oil resources in the best possible way for the public interest and in accordance with international standards. To facilitate its work, it is authorized to resort to the services of an office of independent consultants and local and international experts.
It can also establish a new internal department and regulations to organize its work, and its members have the right to propose oil-related legislative and policy projects.
Creation of Independent National Oil Company
To shift the state's energy role from active operation to high-level policy and regulation, the 2007 framework mandates a massive structural reorganization of the country's energy infrastructure. It orders the transfer of all technical and commercial oil activities away from the exclusive control of the Ministry of Oil to specialized entities.
Most notably, the draft dictates the creation of an independent Iraq National Oil Company (INOC) to spearhead operational duties while granting distinct management authorities to regional governments and producing governorates.
Draft Oil and Gas Law Grants Kurdistan Region Authority
According to the draft, the Kurdistan Region has several authorities, the most important of which is proposing an energy investment plan to the federal authorities.
Kurdistan has the right to license the development of new energy fields and must have representation in the federal council. It is also the region's duty to cooperate and coordinate with the federal authority in implementing the general plans of the energy sector.
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MarkZ: Speculation Around a Possible $2.81–$2.82 Range Amid Iraq’s Ongoing Economic Reforms 🇮🇶💵📊
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MARKZ: Rumored VND Range Of $2.81–$2.82 Sparks Major Community Attention 👀💵🌍 (ENGLISH & SPANISH)
SPANISH
La mañana en vivo de Mark.
Sigo pensando antes del 1.º de Junio 2026En el lado del Bonos:Tuve un contacto de Bonos que respondió. Tuvieron su Cierre y las cosas fueron genial. Recibirán los suyos muy tarde esta semana, posiblemente durante el fin de semana hasta principios de la próxima semana como muy tarde. Los que sospecho que debían recibir dólares esta semana, sigo intentando obtener una respuesta de ellos.
HISTORIA DEL BANCO:Lo que ha estado pasando con una de mis tarjetas bancarias durante años nos ha llevado a buscar un nuevo banco. Fuimos a un banco Chase. Le dijimos al banquero que teníamos moneda extranjera y preguntó si teníamos mucho, a lo que respondí "sí". Preguntó qué tipo, cuándo la obtuvimos y dónde, y luego dijo "sé lo que quieres preguntar y no nos han dicho nada sobre CUÁNDO, pero PRONTO". Dijo que bastantes personas han estado preguntando sobre ello todo el tiempo mientras él sonreía.
Irak:Han realizado el movimiento hacia un sistema bancario internacional estable, y la siguiente etapa es el Valor y la Moneda. Seguimos viéndolos hacer tratos en el escenario internacional y ahora necesitan una Moneda Internacional o destapar la suya.
Shibibi dijo "dame seguro, dame estable, te daré un nuevo Dinar"
Nos dijeron que esto iba a parecer la Tercera Guerra Mundial antes de que esto ocurriera En directo de Mark por la noche.Mucha gente ve este fin de semana como una posibilidad. No sé qué decirles…
Hay mucha actividad. Tengo mucho contexto del Tesoro que creo que esta podría ser nuestra semana, chicos, pero no tengo nada sólido.Bonos:No hay actualizaciones sobre el préstamo. Todo lo que he recibido hasta ahora son mensajes enviados a un par de contactos. Sé que uno de ellos no los ha leído, dos los han leído pero no han respondido hoy. Tengo esperanza porque dos de ellos tenían reuniones, así que eso es una gran noticia. Les mantendré actualizados cuando obtenga una respuesta.
Sigo escuchando que Dong y Dinar van al mismo tiempo y que estamos mirando algo alrededor de $2.81 a $2.82.*No hay actualizaciones frescas sobre Zim o Agros recientemente. No he oído a nadie hablar del Pengo. De hecho, no he oído a nadie en el mundo bancario hablar del Pengo desde el día uno. Aunque tengo esperanza.
Irak:El HCL ha seguido dominando las discusiones durante el día, dos con el gobierno con reuniones en curso trabajando los puntos finales. Esa es una noticia sólida para ustedes. Han acordado el Reparto de Beneficios de ello. Esto me dice que el HCL está más cerca de lo que algunos Prudentes por ahí dicen que es, así que ha sido un gran día de Noticias.
El Ministerio de Finanzas dirige al Departamento de Contabilidad para continuar trabajando los viernes y sábados. La afirmación es "completar los salarios". No sé qué opinan ustedes, pero no sé cuántas personas en el gobierno de EE. UU. le darían "a usted" más dinero o repartirían Pagos del Tesoro…
Solo pensé que esto era curioso con toda la gente hablando de "este fin de semana" y ahora de repente veo al Ministerio de Finanzas y al Departamento de Contabilidad siendo informados de que están trabajando "su fin de semana". Su fin de semana es "viernes/sábado" en Oriente Medio, así que los que hacen el argumento podrían ser bastante sólidos. Espero escuchar de vuelta quizás ya mañana de mis contactos bancarios que trabajan en Gestión de Patrimonios y que han sido entrenados en divisas extranjeras y sus cambios…
Espero que puedan hacernos saber antes del viernes si se les ha dicho que trabajen. Eso podría ser nuestra señal porque sabemos en el lado contable que los iraquíes están trabajando este fin de semana.
Iraq’s Banking Reform Enters Phase Two: Why the CBI’s Repeated Denials May Signal Deeper Financial Transition
To me, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has already completed what appears to be the first major evaluation and stabilization phase of its long-term banking reform strategy.
Over the last several years, Iraq has focused heavily on tightening monetary controls, modernizing banking compliance, reducing dollar-smuggling channels, strengthening anti-money-laundering systems, and rebuilding confidence in the financial sector. These were foundational reforms designed to stabilize the banking environment before any larger monetary transition could realistically occur.
Now the CBI appears to be moving into a second phase — one centered on integration with the international financial system.
This is where global consulting firms such as Oliver Wyman become important. Their involvement suggests Iraq is not merely patching isolated banking problems, but attempting to elevate its banking sector toward international operational standards comparable with globally connected financial systems. That includes compliance modernization, correspondent banking relationships, digital payment infrastructure, risk management frameworks, transparency requirements, and foreign currency settlement capabilities.
This is why the repeated public statements from CBI Governor Al-Alaq are significant, even when they sound repetitive on the surface.
He continues saying:
- there is no current change in the exchange rate,
- foreign reserves remain strong,
- the CBI is not studying a revaluation,
- monetary policy remains stable.
Importantly, this has now been repeated publicly five separate times within six months:
“There is no plan or need at present to adjust or change the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar.”
Read More: https://channel8.com/english/news/58334
- November
- February 12
- February 25
- April 16
- May 19
The repetition itself becomes part of the message.
In highly controlled monetary transitions, central banks rarely announce major currency shifts ahead of time. Publicly denying speculation is often standard policy because openly discussing a revaluation too early could create:
- speculative currency demand,
- capital instability,
- black market volatility,
- banking pressure,
- or political complications.
That is why many observers believe these repeated denials may function less as literal dismissal and more as strategic signaling designed to maintain stability while reforms continue behind the scenes.
What may matter more than the denials themselves is what is happening simultaneously around them.
Al-Alaq specifically confirmed upcoming meetings between:
- the CBI,
- the U.S. Federal Reserve,
- the U.S. Treasury,
- and Oliver Wyman.
That combination is extremely notable because it links Iraq’s monetary authority directly with U.S. financial oversight institutions and an international restructuring consultant at the same time. The stated purpose of these meetings was to support banks transitioning toward dealing in “other foreign currencies” once they complete all required compliance and operational standards.
This wording matters.
Many analysts interpret this as preparation for:
- multi-currency settlement systems,
- reduced dependency on cash dollar auctions,
- broader correspondent banking integration,
- and eventual normalization of Iraq’s international financial operations.
In other words, Iraq may be preparing its banks to function more independently and internationally rather than relying almost exclusively on domestic dollar liquidity mechanisms.
The broader context also supports this interpretation:
- Iraq has expanded regional trade agreements,
- increased non-oil economic initiatives,
- pursued infrastructure and logistics projects,
- integrated more electronic payment systems,
- and worked to align banking practices with international compliance expectations.
Taken together, these developments suggest a coordinated modernization effort rather than isolated reforms.
From this perspective, Al-Alaq’s repeated rejection of revaluation talk could be viewed as “running interference” — maintaining public monetary calm until larger geopolitical, Treasury, and international financial conditions align for whatever comes next.
That does not guarantee an imminent dinar revaluation. There is still no official confirmation of any exchange-rate change. But the pattern indicates Iraq is continuing to build the institutional and banking framework necessary for deeper global financial integration — something that would likely need to exist before any major currency transition could occur.
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Friday, May 22, 2026
FRANK26….5-21-26….A CBI FRIEND
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🧭 Erbil–Baghdad Issues & the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL): What It Really Means for Iraq 🇮🇶
CHANNEL8 Masrour Barzani met with Mohammed al-Halbousi in Baghdad, during which the leader of the Taqaddum Party stressed his party's “...
